Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

May 19, 2011Potter County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this special weather statement at May 19, 2011, 6:13 PM EDT for Potter County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 19, 2011, 6:13 PM EDT (22:13 UTC)
Expired
May 19, 2011, 6:45 PM EDT
In force
32 min
Issued by
NWS State College, PA

County Potter County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-05-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2011-05-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 11 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
706 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
99 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 19, 5:35 PM EDT, 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 19, 5:35 PM EDT, 38 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...AND OUT TO SEA BY SATURDAY. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER APPEAR IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK....ALTHOUGH A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A
RETURN OF SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION WEAKENING ON THE WHOLE...BUT IN THE NRN MTS WHERE
MOVEMENT IS NIL AND FAR SE WHERE TEMPS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST
A LITTLE CAPE. DRY AIR EVIDENT OVER WRN PA IN SINKING AREA BEHIND
MID LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER NERN PA. LOWER PWATS AND SHORT CELLS
MEAN LESS WATER. THUS...THREAT LOOKS LIKE IT HAD CHANGED TO MAINLY
A RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THREAT - AND MAINLY IN THE PLACES WHERE IT
HAS RAINED VERY HEAVILY THE LAST FEW DAYS.

ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY
SLIDES EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND THEN TO THE EASTERN PA
BORDER BY 12Z FRI. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE WEST SHOULD DRY UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A DRIER DAY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST OF PA.
HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SCT
TO NMRS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SOME DEFORMATION
ACROSS EASTERN PA MAY PRODUCE SOME SLOWER MOVING AREAS OF
RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY...OCNL
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW AFTN TEMPS TO CREEP TOWARD NORMAL.
ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U60S AND L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FRIDAY EVENING...AS
THE UPPER-LOW CONTINUES TO PULL EAST OF THE REGION AND WE LOSE THE
DAYTIME-HEATING.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY...AS BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES SOME MUCH-NEEDED SUNSHINE TO CENTRAL PA. CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHRA SATURDAY AFTN...BUT
OVERALL IT SHOULD BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER OUR RECENT DREARY WX.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN INCR
CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE-NORMAL...WITH THE 12Z GEFS SHOWING 850 TEMPS AROUND
+1SD THROUGH MUCH OF NET WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR
ALOFT AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL
PROMOTE INC CVRG OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS THRU THIS EVENING.
LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG IS PSBL OVRNGT BUT CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
TO LOW AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO ERN PA.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ERN SXNS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR...BUT SCT TSTMS MAINLY W HALF.
TUE...MAINLY VFR...SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA AFTN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
Hazardous weather outlook, May 19, 5:59 PM EDT, 14 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 19, 3:18 PM EDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
318 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

PAZ063-191945-
CUMBERLAND PA-
318 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

AT 313 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WALNUT BOTTOM...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MOUNT HOLLY SPRING AROUND 340 PM AND BOILING
SPRINGS AROUND 350 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 221 AND 229...I-81 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 38 AND 51.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT ROUTE 11 FROM WEST OF CARLISLE TO EAST OF
CARLISLE.

LAT...LON 4007 7733 4019 7736 4024 7711 4015 7704
      4009 7711 4007 7714

FORECASTER: DANGELO
Special weather statement, May 19, 3:41 PM EDT, 2 hours 32 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
341 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

PAZ037-192015-
TIOGA PA-
341 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TIOGA COUNTY...

AT 337 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MILLERTON...MOVING
WEST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN TIOGA
COUNTY JUST EAST OF TIOGA-HAMMOND DAM.

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4190 7690 4187 7690 4187 7704
      4201 7706 4200 7693

FORECASTER: DANGELO
Special weather statement, May 19, 4:28 PM EDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
428 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

PAZ063>065-192130-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-YORK PA-
428 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ADAMS...SOUTH CENTRAL CUMBERLAND
AND WEST CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES...

AT 423 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GETTYSBURG...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BONNEAUVILLE AROUND 440 PM...ARENDTSVILLE
AROUND 500 PM...BIGLERVILLE AROUND 520 PM AND HEIDLERSBURG AROUND 530
PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 30...
STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 97.

LAT...LON 3978 7737 4010 7739 4004 7687 3971 7715
      3972 7721

FORECASTER: MARTIN
Special weather statement, May 19, 4:46 PM EDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
446 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

PAZ064>066-192145-
ADAMS PA-LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
446 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ADAMS...WEST CENTRAL
LANCASTER AND WESTERN YORK COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR EAST BERLIN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR YORK BY 540 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 33.

LAT...LON 4010 7710 4015 7703 4015 7698 4016 7698
      4016 7697 4014 7675 4012 7673 4014 7670
      4013 7657 3972 7667 3972 7718

FORECASTER: MARTIN
Special weather statement, May 19, 5:03 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
503 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

PAZ005-006-192200-
MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-
503 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MCKEAN AND
NORTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PORT ALLEGANY. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WAS PART OF A BAND OF STORMS THAT EXTENDED NORTHWESTWARD
TO NEAR BRADFORD.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE
219...STATE ROAD 46...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 446.

LAT...LON 4184 7799 4162 7819 4200 7892 4201 7818

FORECASTER: MARTIN
Special weather statement, May 19, 6:13 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

PAZ005-006-192245-
MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-
613 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MCKEAN AND
NORTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 610 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR OSWAYO...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR
SHINGLEHOUSE AROUND 630 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT ROUTE 6.

LAT...LON 4201 7800 4200 7800 4200 7798 4190 7797
      4178 7812 4194 7836 4201 7815 4201 7814

FORECASTER: EVANEGO/GRUMM

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 18, 8:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPClinton60 min
May 18, 8:52 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPPotter53 min
May 18, 9:22 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPLycoming83 min
May 18, 10:19 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPAdams, Cumberland, Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon116 min
May 18, 10:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPAdams27 min
May 18, 11:21 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPAdams, Cumberland54 min
May 18, 11:49 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPCumberland, Franklin, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry116 min
May 19, 12:22 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPCentre, Juniata, Mifflin53 min
May 19, 12:31 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPCentre, Clinton, Mifflin, Snyder, Union119 min
May 19, 12:56 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPSnyder64 min
May 19, 1:10 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPDauphin, Snyder65 min
May 19, 1:20 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPClinton55 min
May 19, 2:08 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPLancaster37 min
May 19, 2:29 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPAdams, York2 hr
May 19, 3:24 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPCumberland, Dauphin, Juniata, Northumberland, Perry, Snyder and 1 more3 hr
May 19, 3:33 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningCTPClinton14 hr
May 19, 3:55 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPDauphin3 hr
May 19, 5:56 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPLycoming, Montour, Northumberland, Union94 min
May 19, 11:41 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPAdams, Columbia, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster and 7 more3 hr
May 19, 1:27 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPLebanon33 min
May 19, 1:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPColumbia, Lebanon, Northumberland, Schuylkill49 min
May 19, 2:00 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPLycoming3 hr
May 19, 3:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPCumberland27 min
May 19, 4:22 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPAdams, Cumberland, York3 hr
May 19, 4:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPAdams62 min
May 19, 4:46 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPYork59 min
May 19, 5:03 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementCTPMcKean57 min
May 19, 6:13 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPMcKean3 hr
May 19, 6:47 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningCTPPotter, Tioga3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Pennsylvania, 2011Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.