Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
810 PM EDT SUN APR 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SUBSTANTIALLY ON MONDAY. A
SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WINDY AND COOL
DAY TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED GRIDS AND RECENTLY SENT OUT A FRESH ZFPCTP PACKAGE TO
BETTER REFLECT THE MULTI-LAYERED PRECIP EVENT OCCURRING IN ADVANCE
OF A WARM FRONT.

SUB-FRZG 900-800 MB WET BULBS ACRS THE NORTHERN MTNS WAS SUPPORTING
A WET SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE WITH A VERY LIGHT ACCUM ON THE MTN TOPS
AOB 2000 FT MSL /WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIPPED TO THE
LOWER AND MID 30S/. THE CENTRAL ZONES NEAR...AND JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SEE A FEW PERIODS OF RAIN THIS
EVENING...WITH SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES.

FOR THE FAR SW ZONES...CAMRIA/SOMERSET AND BEDFORD...STRONG
WESTERLY ISENTROPIC LIFT VIA A 55-65KT WSW JET WITHIN THE 300-310
THETA CHANNEL AND ADVECTION OF SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES
/BASED ALL THE WAY UP AROUND 750 MB/ WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT SOME
FAST MOVING ELEVATED TSRA. PEA SIZE HAIL RECENTLY REPORTED FROM A
THUNDERSTORM IN BERLIN - SOMERSET COUNTY. THIS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z-12
MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN THROUGH
ABOUT 08Z MONDAY. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT.

SREF PROB OF PRECIP TYPE NUMBERS ALSO SUGGEST A BETTER THAN 60
PCT CHANCE THAT SN WILL FALL ACROSS THE NRN MTS. BUT WILL KEEP
ACCUMS AT LITTLE OR NIL DUE TO AIR TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AT WORST.

LOW TEMPS ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
LAURELS...AND COUNTIES EITHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE 80. MINS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LOWER 40S LOOK ON TRACK...BASED ON THE
TIMING/AMOUNT OF LIGHT RAINFALL...AND CURRENT...00Z SFC IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE STEADIER RAIN AND ANY CHC FOR THUNDER STAYS ALONG THE NY
BORDER IN THE MORNING...AS WARM FRONT PUSHES THRU MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT OR EARLY IN THE MORNING. WILL THEREFORE KEEP MUCH OF
THE AREA DRY INTO THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. SFC INSTABILITY
TRIES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND SOME
TALL CU WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY POP UP AFTER NOON IN THE CENTRAL
MTS. WILL CARRY JUST A LOW CHC POP THEN FOR SHRA. NAM AND
GFS DISAGREE ON JUST HOW MUCH OF THE AREA COULD GET A SHRA IN THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...WITH NAM MUCH DRIER. THE SREF MEAN POPS ARE
NOT MUCH HELP IN SWAYING THE FCST ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...SO HAVE
PLAYED THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH CHC POPS N...BUT WAIT UNTIL LATE
AFTN TO INTRODUCE HIGHER POPS TO ANYWHERE S OF I-80. THE SE LOOKS
TO BE DRY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY.

THE NEXT STORY - AND PERHAPS THE BIGGER ONE - IS JUST HOW NICE A
DAY IT WILL BE OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE CWA. TEMPS WILL SOAR
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. REC MAXES ARE 84F AT IPT AND 82F AT MDT.
WHILE I DON/T FORESEE THOSE FALLING...ESP IPT...IT WILL GET VERY
WARM IN THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA. EXPECT M70S IN THE VALLEYS AND
65 TO 70F IN THE HILLS. COLD FRONT BECOMES A N-S FEATURE THROUGH
THE DAY OVER THE OH VALLEY AS THE DRIVING TROUGH SWINGS FROM A
POSITIVE TO A MORE-MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION. THE CENTRAL SFC LOW
WILL GO UP INTO QUEBEC BY THE DAY/S END. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
BE INTO WARREN CO BY SUNSET. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL WAIT
UNTIL THE FROPA...SINCE NO REAL HINT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXISTS IN THE MASS FIELDS. SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 OR 30 MPH
ON THE HILL TOPS IN THE W AND NE MTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR MON EVE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE EASTERN SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY
DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS...BUT A BAND OF STEADY RAIN
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST BY MID
EVENING AND MARCH ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE SOUTHEAST BY
MID MORNING TUESDAY. ANY TSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE AS 50-70KT 850 JET SWINGS THROUGH.
TOTAL QPF MON NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCHES...WHICH SHOULD
FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME PERIOD TO PRODUCE JUST A SOAKING
RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S FOR MOST...THOUGH
THE NW MTNS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING LATE.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE DELAYED BY
A COUPLE OF HOURS...ALLOWING PRECIP TO END IN THE NW BEFORE ANY
SNOW HAS TIME TO MIX IN. NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN MTNS INTO THU...WITH CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN AS A CLIPPER FOLLOWS FOR WED - TRACKING
ACROSS NY STATE.

MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGH OVER CENTRAL U.S.
BRINGS SW FLOW TO PA. MODELS IN LINE WITH OVERALL PATTERN...BUT
STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN DAY TO DAY SBTLE FEATURES AS THIS
SYSTEM EJECTS A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES INTO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AS IT
APPROACHES. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERY WEATHER APPEAR TO BE FRI
INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THAT IS ADVANCING IN FM ERN OH ATTM.
LITTLE REDUCTION IN VSBYS WILL HAPPEN AS THE RAIN STARTS THIS
EVENING. THE CIGS WILL LOWER AND COULD BE INTO MVFR AT KBFD THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE VFR ELSEWHERE ALL THRU THE FCST PD. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AT BFD TO SEE IF THE CIG DIPS
TO IFR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING ON MONDAY. HAVE DIPPED
THEM INTO IFR...SINCE MOS GUID TAKES THEM THERE. MOST OF THE -RA
SHOULD BE OVER BY 07 OR 08Z. THE CHC OF SN STILL EXISTS AT KBFD
AND ACROSS THE NRN MTS JUST N OF KIPT EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WARM
ADVECTION THRU THE NIGHT SHOULD END THAT THREAT. OTHERWISE THE
NEWS IS THE SCREAMING SW LLJET - AND HAVE EXTENDED MENTIONS OF
LLWS THRU ALL STATIONS. THE FASTEST WINDS OF UP TO 50KTS AS LOW AS
2KFT WILL BE OVER BFD...JST AND AOO.

THUNDER AND MOST CONVECTION WILL WAIT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
IN MON EVENING AND THRU FROM W-E DURING THE NIGHT. FRONT IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE AND REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
BRIEF/LESS THAN 3 HRS AT MOST LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR W...VFR E - IMPROVING THRU THE DAY.
WED...CLIPPER WITH -SNRA AND IFR IN N...MVFR S.
THU...VFR
FRI...VFR/MVFR IN -RA ALONG WARM FRONT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO

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