Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
506 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A WINDY
AND COOL DAY TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND A VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FIRST BATCH OF MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY/TSRA WAS RACING NE...BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...BETWEEN I-80 AND
ROUTE 22. PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PRESSING SE TWD THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
FRONT APPEARING ON THE WRN HORIZON. ONE S/WV FIRING UP ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA IN WRN PA ATTM...AND ALL MOVING AT 50-60KTS. THE
FINAL WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT IS COMING THRU CENTRAL OH...BUT TILTING
TROF ALOFT WILL SLOW EWRD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE NRN
TERRITORIES. FROPA TIMING ABOUT 01-02Z IN THE FAR NW...BUT NOT
UNTIL 12Z IN LANCASTER CO. SIGHT RISK CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH ALMOST RIDICULOUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 70+KT. THE HIGH SHEAR
AND FAST STORM MOTIONS POINT TOWARD AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE -
WHERE THE AIR HAS NOT BEEN STABILIZED BY RAIN COOLED AIR. WILL
MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN FCST FOR NOW. NO HINTS ON
WATCH FOR LOCAL AREA FROM SPC YET.

VERY INTERESTING CALL FOR P-TYPE IN THE NW AND LAURELS LATER
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR COMES IN ALL AT ONCE ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
WILL MENTION A MIX FOR THE W AFT 06Z...AND THEN PLAIN OL SNOW
AFTER 10Z. THUS...WILL ADD A SMALL ACCUM TO THE WRN MTS AND LATER
IN THE NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MDL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE THAT RAIN MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
EASTERN AREAS BY 10 AM...AND WILL LEAVE HIGH POPS IN FOR
THE MORNING. PTYPE IN THE W WILL BE MAINLY SN IN THE
MORNING...BUT MAY ALSO BE MIXING WITH RA AT TIMES. ACCUMS IN THE
DAYLIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.

COLD ADV KEEPS ON GOING THRU THE MORNING...BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH
SEEMS TO SWING THRU AROUND 18Z. THIS COLD AIR ALOFT AND HEATING OF
THE APRIL SUN WILL MAKE FOR GOOD LLVL INSTABILITY AND DRIVE
NUMEROUS SHSN IN THE W. THE CHANGE OF SIGN IN THE ADV SHOULD HELP
TAPER OFF THE SHSN IN THE WRN/UPSLOPE LOCATIONS LATE IN THE DAY.
SO...WILL TAKE OUT POPS AFT 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN
MTNS WED INTO THU. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON
WED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A CLIPPER WHICH
WILL GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WED-WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX NORTH OF I-80...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGES BACK SOUTH OF CWA ON THU...AND THEN
MEANDERS BACK INTO PA FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
BACK TO A WETTER SHOWERY SOLUTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SERIES
OF WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THE WETTEST PERIODS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AS
OVERRUNNING FOLLOWED BY A FROPA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD BE
MAINLY VFR AHEAD OF A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TEND TO
THINK THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL COME BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z FOR
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

OVERNIGHT A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION.
HAVE MENTIONED LLWS THRU ALL STATIONS. WINDS OF UP TO 50KTS AS
LOW AS 2KFT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THUNDER AND MOST CONVECTION
WILL WAIT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU FROM W-E DURING THE
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...MVFR W...VFR E - IMPROVING THRU THE DAY.
WED...CLIPPER WITH -SNRA AND IFR IN N...MVFR S.
THU...VFR
FRI...VFR/MVFR IN -RA ALONG WARM FRONT.
SAT...VFR/MVFR -RA POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...KREKELER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
925 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-045-056-063-064-051330-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-PERRY-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-
925 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-057>059-065-066-051330-
TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-
MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-YORK-
LANCASTER-
925 AM EDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
409 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

PAZ012-019-041-045-046-042045-
NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-
SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-
409 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CENTRE...SOUTHEASTERN
CLINTON AND SOUTHERN LYCOMING COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF CENTRE...CLINTON
AND LYCOMING COUNTIES AT 407 PM EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 164 AND 194.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...STATE
ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4110 7697 4109 7698 4107 7714 4104 7715
      4090 7764 4105 7771 4109 7763 4110 7765
      4137 7722

FORECASTER: GARTNER/KOZAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
443 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

PAZ046-049-051>053-042115-
COLUMBIA PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-
UNION PA-
443 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT COLUMBIA...MONTOUR...
NORTHEASTERN UNION...NORTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
LYCOMING COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
MONTGOMERY TO MILTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR MUNCY AROUND 450 PM...BIGGERTOWN AROUND 500
PM AND RED ROCK AROUND 510 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 203 AND 247...I-180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 14.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
147...ROUTE 11...ROUTE 15...STATE ROAD 45...STATE ROAD 118.

LAT...LON 4095 7621 4095 7699 4119 7702 4129 7652
      4128 7645 4131 7641 4131 7631 4121 7632
      4115 7628 4114 7626

FORECASTER: GARTNER/KOZAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
619 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

PAZ033-042300-
SOMERSET PA-
619 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 612 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
BLAIRSVILLE TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRUCETON MILLS...MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS
WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR SEVEN SPRINGS AROUND
630 PM...TIRE HILL AROUND 640 PM...WINDBER AROUND 650 PM AND
OGLETOWN AROUND 700 PM.

LAT...LON 3971 7939 3973 7941 3979 7937 3982 7937
      3985 7942 3990 7941 4009 7926 4013 7917
      4028 7906 4029 7893 4024 7888 4024 7866
      4008 7873 4006 7876 4000 7876 3972 7891

FORECASTER: KF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
635 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

PAZ024-025-033-042315-
BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-SOMERSET PA-
635 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMBRIA...NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET
AND WESTERN BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 631 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEW
FLORENCE...MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR VINCO AROUND 640 PM...LORETTO
AROUND 650 PM AND ASHVILLE AROUND 700 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 30.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE JOHNSTOWN
EXPRESSWAY...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 219...ROUTE 220...ROUTE
422...STATE ROAD 56.

LAT...LON 4021 7913 4036 7900 4053 7890 4073 7842
      4034 7842 4030 7856 4033 7862 4027 7865
      4008 7916

FORECASTER: LAMBERT