Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS State College, PA

389 
WWUS51 KCTP 041951
SVSCTP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

PAC081-113-042030-
/O.CON.KCTP.SV.W.0231.000000T0000Z-110904T2030Z/
SULLIVAN PA-LYCOMING PA-
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN LYCOMING AND WESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  LOYALSOCKVILLE...
  MUNCY...
  HUGHESVILLE...
  BARBOURS AND PICTURE ROCKS...
  KETTLE CREEK GORGE AND EAGLES MERE...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 220...
STATE ROAD 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4129 7646 4114 7693 4115 7696 4113 7697
      4107 7716 4119 7729 4122 7731 4158 7671
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 235DEG 22KT 4128 7697

$$

MARTIN

FORECASTER: RXR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
246 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY HUMID AIRMASS FEEDING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH LABOR DAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS
WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
LEE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

QUICK UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 835...

SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS NOW THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS
ALLOWED US TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS. RUC ANAL SHOWS CAPES IN THE
1000-3000J RANGE WITH AN ERODING CAP. SHEAR IS WEAK SO SEVERE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. BEST SHEAR STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY WEST OF THE FCST AREA.

SO FAR THE CORES ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO NOTHING CLOSE ON THE
WARNING FRONTIER AS YET.

PWATS EXCEED 1.7" OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FEED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. HPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE
AREA FOR A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIRES ARW SHOWS
THE AREA REALLY LIGHTING UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE SREF SHOW AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF 24
HOUR RAINFALLS EXCEEDING AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...AND
EVEN SOME 2+ INCH TOTALS IN 36 HOURS FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MONDAY. PWATS IN THE ENSEMBLES ARE 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE THE OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS ARE CLOSER TO 2-3 STD DEV
ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES. 3 AND 6 HR FFG IS 3 INCHES OR MORE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA SO AM LEANING AWAY FROM ANY FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
POINT. AS USUAL BEFORE THE CONVECTION HAS SET UP...IT'S NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT WHICH PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE MOST
RAIN...BUT GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT SUGGESTS ABOUT THE NWRN 2/3 OR
SO OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE SFC BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT A STRONG RIGHT-JET ENTRANCE REGION
PASSING THRU THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY...SUGGESTING PRECIP WILL BE
FOCUSED IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
RAINS VERY NEAR AND JUST BACK INTO THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER AS WELL MONDAY AS INITIALLY CLOUDS AND RAIN
KEEP TEMPS DOWN. TEMPS COULD ACTUALLY BE QUITE CHILLY OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS IN THE COOL AIR BEHIND THE POTENT ANAFRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS REGION
SITS BETWEEN TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO SOUTH AND DRIER CANADIAN
AIR TO THE NORTH. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL SLIDE WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION MON EVE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH
TUE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE FAR SOUTH OF CWA AND BY
MIDWEEK IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH AGAIN. UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE...BUT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
REMNANTS OF LEE IS POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE WED AND
THU PERIODS BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THRU BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK TO BRING SOME DRYING HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
SHOW HIGH QPF SPREAD THIS WEEK WHICH COULD HAVE HYDRO IMPLICATIONS AS
THE WEEK GOES ON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TERMINALS IN THE SUSQ VALLEY ARE HANGING TOUGH WITH VIZ IN THE 3-5
MILE RANGE...WITH EVEN SOME BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2000' NEAR
IPT. ELSEWHERE A HAZY LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN PROGRESS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GR LAKES/OH VLY WILL BRING
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THE DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE GET. SOME
STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY SEVERE.

THE FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...FINALLY DOING SO BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
RAIN/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT UNTIL PERHAPS LATER MONDAY
OR MONDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...BCMG VFR.
TUE NGT-FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...LA CORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
245 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

PAZ012-037-041-042-045-046-049-051>053-051845-
NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
245 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 835 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF LEE COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017>019-024>028-033>036-050-056>059-063>066-
051845-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-
BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SNYDER-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
245 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF LEE COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

PAZ041-042-046-042015-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-
310 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN LYCOMING AND WESTERN
SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

AT 305 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COLLOMSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT DUBOISTOWN...AND GARDEN VIEW...WILLIAMSPORT...
SOUTH WILLIAMSPORT...AND COGAN STATION...LOYALSOCKVILLE...AND
MONTOURSVILLE...HUGHESVILLE...BARBOURS AND PICTURE ROCKS.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 29.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...ROUTE
220.

LAT...LON 4135 7644 4107 7717 4114 7725 4122 7731
      4158 7663

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
311 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

PAZ051>053-058-042000-
COLUMBIA PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-SCHUYLKILL PA-
311 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
NORTHUMBERLAND...NORTH CENTRAL SCHUYLKILL...SOUTHEASTERN MONTOUR AND
SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
LYNWOOD TO MIFFLINVILLE TO SNYDERTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT CATAWISSA...MAINVILLE...KNOEBELS
GROVE...SHUMANS AND NUMIDIA.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 235 AND 247.

LAT...LON 4082 7635 4080 7685 4082 7684 4105 7641
      4114 7626 4114 7623 4114 7622 4103 7622
      4096 7621 4094 7613 4093 7613

FORECASTER: LA CORTE