Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
316 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE PARTIAL CLEARING...COOLER AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS THAN NIGHTS DURING THE PAST WEEKS HEAT WAVE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR...JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT WILL BUILD AGAIN AS THE BIG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH NO 683 CONTINUES FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH 23Z TODAY.

SFC COLD FRONT WITH A BKN LINE OF TSRA ACCOMPANYING IT...WAS SLICING
ESE ACROSS THE NCENT AND NW MTNS ATTM. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR A LINE
FROM KIPT TO KUNV AND KJST BETWEEN 2130-22Z...THEN CROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 23-02Z.

THE BEST DEEP LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR FAVORS ISOLATED SVR TSRA THREAT
ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHERE A FEW MINI
BOW ECHOES COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED...BORDERLINE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS.

CLEARING SKIES ALA STRONG NEG THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 925-850MB
LAYER WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING.

LINGERING...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY
AND ADJACENT SCENT ZONES FOR UP TO A FEW HOURS AFTER DUSK...BEFORE
DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY TONIGHT AND LEFTOVER LLVL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LATE
NIGHT...2SM FOG...ESP THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS.

MIN TEMPS EARLY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE NRN
MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ENHANCE THE UPPER
TROUGH TONIGHT AND PUSH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRIER AIR AND CREATE INSTABILITY IN THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECT SCT TSRA IN THE N ON TUES AS THE MOST POTENT
SHORT WAVE BRUSHES THE NRN MTNS. 8H TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS WILL
STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT
STILL A NICE CHANGE FROM THE HEAT WAVE OF THIS PAST WEEK. THE TAIL
OF THE LAST VORT MAX MAY DRAG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ESP OVER THE SRN MTNS TUES NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER BUT DRIER
AIR WEDNESDAY. THE TEMPS WILL GO BACK UP RATHER QUICKLY AS THE 8H
TEMPS AND MOISTURE RISE AGAIN LATE WED/THURS. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM WITH THE WARM UP STARTING WEDNESDAY UNDER
GOOD SUNSHINE. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE OVER OR
TO THE NE OF THE AREA...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. THICKNESSES RISE
BACK INTO THE 575-580 RANGE AND 5H HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK CONTINUE
TO TREND TO WIDESPREAD 90S BY THURSDAY AND COULD TOUCH THE
CENTURY MARK IN SPOTS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL COVER THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...BROKEN BY JUST A 1-HOUR
PERIOD OF MVFR /TO POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR/ CIGS AND VSBYS IN A BKN LINE
OF SHRA/TSRA. REFER TO THE ABOVE...NEAR TERM SECTION OF THE DISC FOR
SPECIFICS ON THE TIMING OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

AREAS OF 2-3SM FOG A/ND LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS/ IN FOG WILL
OCCUR IN THE LEFTOVER MOIST AIR WITH LIGHT WIND LATE TONIGHT UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE WITH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCTD AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHRA/TSRA.

INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP INTO THE MID 20KT RANGE
COULD IMPACT FAP AND TAKEOFFS AT REGION AIRFIELDS AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG/MVFR POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING...AND ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE THU AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/CERU
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1148 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049-051>053-261600-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-
COLUMBIA-
1148 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ024>028-033>036-050-056>059-063>066-261600-
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-SNYDER-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-
YORK-LANCASTER-
1148 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
104 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

PAZ057-059-065-066-251800-
DAUPHIN PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-YORK PA-
104 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DAUPHIN...
SOUTHERN LEBANON...WESTERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES...

AT 100 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
ELIZABETHTOWN TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF MANCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND INTENSE LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR LAWN AROUND 110 PM...ANNVILLE AROUND
120 PM...MOUNT GRETNA AROUND 130 PM...CORNWALL AROUND 140 PM...
MOUNTVILLE AROUND 150 PM AND EAST PETERSBURG AROUND 200 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 248 AND 280...I-83 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 1 AND 33.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE HARRISBURG
AIRPORT CONNECTOR...STATE HIGHWAY 283...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 222...ROUTE
322...ROUTE 422...STATE ROAD 94...STATE ROAD 501.

LAT...LON 3975 7700 4031 7674 4039 7625 4037 7621
      4032 7615 3971 7642 3972 7700

FORECASTER: RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

PAZ004>006-010-011-037-251845-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-TIOGA PA-WARREN PA-
201 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELK...NORTHERN
CAMERON...SOUTHEASTERN WARREN...SOUTHERN MCKEAN...SOUTHERN POTTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 154 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
ROULETTE TO WETMORE TO 9 MILES WEST OF MARIENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND INTENSE LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN
LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR COUDERSPORT AROUND 210 PM...DENTON HILL
STATE PARK AROUND 220 PM...GALETON AROUND 230 PM...ST. MARYS AROUND
240 PM AND CHERRY SPRINGS STATE PARK AROUND 250 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 219...
STATE ROAD 66...STATE ROAD 120...STATE ROAD 255.

LAT...LON 4185 7759 4155 7757 4153 7760 4147 7806
      4125 7855 4125 7864 4122 7865 4121 7869
      4127 7876 4137 7897 4135 7910 4142 7910
      4146 7906 4145 7897 4162 7897 4163 7911
      4173 7889

FORECASTER: RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
219 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHINGLEHOUSE            41.97N  78.19W
07/25/2011                   POTTER             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN SHINGLEHOUSE

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100319

TYBURSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
221 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROULETTE                41.77N  78.16W
07/25/2011                   POTTER             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN ROULETTE

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100320

TYBURSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

PAZ037-041-042-046-252000-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-
259 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LYCOMING...SOUTHEASTERN
TIOGA AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

AT 252 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
ROSEVILLE TO BLOSSBURG TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SLATE RUN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WATERVILLE AROUND 310 PM...
TROUT RUN AROUND 320 PM...JERSEY SHORE AROUND 330 PM...WILLIAMSPORT
AROUND 340 PM...PICTURE ROCKS AROUND 350 PM AND LAIRDSVILLE AROUND
400 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 29.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE
15...ROUTE 220...STATE ROAD 14...STATE ROAD 118.

LAT...LON 4195 7692 4168 7710 4143 7758 4137 7754
      4134 7748 4129 7745 4120 7729 4107 7716
      4109 7698 4115 7696 4114 7690 4118 7680
      4116 7659 4131 7641 4131 7630 4153 7621
      4155 7624 4160 7687

FORECASTER: RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

PAZ017-252015-
CLEARFIELD PA-
337 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLEARFIELD COUNTY...

AT 330 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR HYDE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WALLACETON AROUND 350 PM AND OSCEOLA MILLS
AROUND 400 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 138.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...ROUTE
322...STATE ROAD 153.

LAT...LON 4120 7850 4106 7806 4103 7808 4101 7806
      4098 7809 4096 7808 4094 7812 4096 7816
      4094 7815 4091 7822 4086 7825 4083 7830
      4074 7837 4100 7881 4103 7881

FORECASTER: RXR