Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOWLY FILLING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED INTO
THE WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND SHOULD
LIKELY BRING THE FIRST PROLONGED HEAT OF THE SEASON TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH 8 PM.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM MAINE DOWN OVER NRN PA INTO OHIO
CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. PROGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN WIND WITH HEIGHT BUT VERY
LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. SO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VERY NEAR THE
FRONT...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A HIGH CAPE LOW SHEAR DAY...WHICH
WILL TEND TOWARD THE MAIN THREATS OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. IT WILL ALSO CREATE THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. AREAS THAT GOT HIT YESTERDAY WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE
TO FLOODING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON A THREAT ZONE FOR ANY
KIND OF WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION THAT IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE AND MORE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE THE
INSTABILITY...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN
THE NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY THAT IS HANGING IN OVER THE AREA IS
FINALLY FCST TO WASH OUT...LEAVING A STILL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
ITS PLACE RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.
TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM / 6 PM SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND GRADUALLY FILL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE AXIS OF RELATIVELY
HIGH PWAT AIR UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY PINCH OFF AND MOVE EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND
LIFTS OUT. ANY SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO WASH UNDER
THE DWINDLING UPPER FORCING.

BY SUNDAY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
BRINGING THE SEASON'S FIRST REAL SHOT OF HIGH HEAT. THE 500 RIDGE
IS FCST TO BLOW UP TO MORE THAN 5900M OVER THE NERN US...MORE THAN
2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG THIS RIDGE
HOLDS ON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RIDE OVER THE
RIDGE...WEAKENING IT BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GEFS
CARVES OFF THE NORTHERN EDGE BY MID WEEK COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE
THAT IS MADE TO SLIDE THRU THE GR LAKES AND NERN US...WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE BIG HEIGHTS FOR AT LEAST A DAY LONGER...DUE
TO THE FACT THAT IT HAS IT LOCATED MORE OVER THE MIDWEST...THAN
THE EASTERN US. SO TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD
BE WELL INTO THE 80S TO THE LOW 90S. THE WARM TEMPS AND DRY AIR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION.

THE STRONG LOW MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BRING A FRONT OUT OF CANADA AND BRING A RESPITE FROM THE
HEAT AND OUR GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF THE 18Z ISSUANCE...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS UNDER VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH SHOWERS AND LINGERING IFR CEILINGS OVER THE THE
WEST. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE THE
RETURN OF SHRA/TSRA TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
STATE. THE SHRA/TSRA WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN...AND
MOST STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z. AFTERWARD...PATCHY MVFR FOG
AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL SET IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.
SUN-WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/CERU/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...RXR/KOZAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-282145-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
535 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-282145-
NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
535 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DEVOIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

PAZ019-027-045-049-050-272130-
MIFFLIN PA-SNYDER PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-UNION PA-
505 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL CENTRE...
NORTHEASTERN MIFFLIN...SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON...SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND
WEST CENTRAL SNYDER COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SNYDER-MIDDLESWART...
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SNYDER-MIDDLESWART AROUND 510 PM...WEIKERT
AROUND 520 PM AND LAURELTON CENTER AROUND 530 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD
45.

LAT...LON 4106 7738 4100 7707 4068 7733 4073 7751

FORECASTER: RXR/KOZAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             TODD                    40.26N  78.08W
05/27/2011  M1.75 INCH       HUNTINGDON         PA   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH AT SMALL AIRSTRIP
            IN TODD TOWNSHIP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100187

MACH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
550 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

PAZ037-272245-
TIOGA PA-
550 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TIOGA COUNTY...

AT 542 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LEETONIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WELLSBORO AROUND 610 PM...KEENEYVILLE AROUND
630 PM...MANSFIELD AROUND 640 PM AND TIOGA AROUND 650 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 15.

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4184 7690 4155 7747 4169 7760
      4201 7725 4200 7693

FORECASTER: RXR/KOZAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
552 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

PAZ037-041-272215-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-TIOGA PA-
552 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL LYCOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 542 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TROUT RUN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BUTTONWOOD AROUND 600 PM AND RALSTON AROUND
620 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 15...STATE ROAD
14.

LAT...LON 4161 7687 4159 7682 4157 7681 4134 7702
      4130 7715 4133 7727 4164 7718 4164 7687

FORECASTER: RXR/KOZAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
553 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

PAZ042-053-272245-
COLUMBIA PA-SULLIVAN PA-
553 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SULLIVAN AND NORTH
CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

AT 548 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FAIRMOUNT SPGS...
MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CENTRAL AROUND 600 PM...RICKETTS GLEN STATE
PARK AROUND 610 PM AND DUSHORE AROUND 640 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 220...STATE ROAD
118.

LAT...LON 4131 7631 4121 7632 4117 7630 4119 7649
      4126 7648 4127 7645 4128 7648 4156 7644
      4155 7622 4153 7621

FORECASTER: RXR/KOZAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
606 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

PAZ036-063-064-272300-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-FRANKLIN PA-
606 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN
CUMBERLAND AND WESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 604 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SABILLASVILLE...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL...AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN
DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SEVEN
STARS AROUND 620 PM...CASHTOWN AROUND 630 PM...BENDERSVILLE AROUND
640 PM AND WALNUT BOTTOM AROUND 650 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 35.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11...ROUTE
15...ROUTE 30.

LAT...LON 3972 7755 4011 7753 4012 7709 4009 7711
      4007 7713 4006 7712 3972 7729

FORECASTER: LAMBERT