Alert archive / Pennsylvania / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 113, NWS State College, PA

November 23, 2011Dauphin County, Lebanon County, Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this river flood warning at Nov 23, 2011, 3:00 AM EST for Dauphin County, Lebanon County, Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Nov 23, 2011, 9:00 AM EST. It was in force for 18 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 23, 2011, 3:00 AM EST (08:00 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 23, 2011, 9:00 AM EST
Expired
Nov 24, 2011, 3:26 AM EST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS State College, PA
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Dauphin County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Swatara Creek at Harper Tavern (HTVP1). The gauge peaked at 10.22 ft at Nov 23, 2011, 7:00 PM EST.

actionminormoderate051011/2311/2411/25
Action stage
7 ft
Minor stage
9 ft
Moderate stage
12 ft
Major stage
15 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 01573000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

711 
WGUS41 KCTP 230800
FLWCTP
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
300 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE, PA HAS ISSUED A 
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN PENNSYLVANIA...

  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC061-232000-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0109.111123T0759Z-111124T1424Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.111123T0719Z.111123T1800Z.111124T0824Z.NO/
300 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS...10.3 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS FROM AUGHWICK CREEK COVER PORTIONS OF 
  GILBO ROAD, AUGHWICK MILLS ROAD AND KEYSTONE ROAD IN SHIRLEY 
  TOWNSHIP.

$$

PAC043-075-107-232000-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FL.W.0113.111123T1400Z-111124T0336Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.111123T1400Z.111123T1800Z.111123T2136Z.NO/
300 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE, PA HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS...6.7 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 9.3 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL DRIVEWAYS AND OTHER MINOR ROADWAYS ARE 
  AFFECTED.  WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME BASEMENTS.

$$

PAC043-075-232000-
/O.NEW.KCTP.FL.W.0114.111123T1500Z-111124T0130Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.111123T1500Z.111123T1800Z.111123T1930Z.NO/
300 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE, PA HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS...5.1 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 7.1 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$
6 follow-up statements
185 
WGUS81 KCTP 230816
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC061-232016-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-111124T1424Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.111123T0719Z.111123T1800Z.111124T0824Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS FROM AUGHWICK CREEK COVER PORTIONS OF 
  GILBO ROAD, AUGHWICK MILLS ROAD AND KEYSTONE ROAD IN SHIRLEY 
  TOWNSHIP.

$$

PAC099-232015-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0110.111123T0900Z-111123T2217Z/
/SMDP1.1.ER.111123T0900Z.111123T1200Z.111123T1617Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 9.5 FEET BY THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL HOMES ALONG RIVER ROAD ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC041-232015-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0111.111123T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.111123T1200Z.111124T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND
  CREST NEAR 9.6 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-232015-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0112.111123T1200Z-111124T1700Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.111123T1200Z.111123T2300Z.111124T1100Z.UU/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND
  CREST NEAR 7.8 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC043-075-107-232015-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0113.111123T1400Z-111124T0336Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.111123T1400Z.111123T1800Z.111123T2136Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 9.3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL DRIVEWAYS AND OTHER MINOR ROADWAYS ARE 
  AFFECTED.  WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME BASEMENTS.

$$

PAC043-075-232015-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0114.111123T1500Z-111124T0130Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.111123T1500Z.111123T1800Z.111123T1930Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 7.1 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$
673 
WGUS81 KCTP 231440
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PAC061-240240-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-111124T1642Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.111123T0719Z.111123T1800Z.111124T1042Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 13.0 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS FROM AUGHWICK CREEK COVER PORTIONS OF 
  GILBO ROAD, AUGHWICK MILLS ROAD AND KEYSTONE ROAD IN SHIRLEY 
  TOWNSHIP.

$$

PAC099-232224-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-111123T2224Z/
/SMDP1.1.ER.111123T0850Z.111123T1415Z.111123T1624Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE 
  THIS MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL HOMES ALONG RIVER ROAD ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC041-240239-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.111123T1123Z.111124T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN 
  BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-240239-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-111124T2300Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.111123T0900Z.111124T0000Z.111124T1700Z.UU/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 8.9 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
* AT 9.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT
  ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.  CEDAR CLIFF DRIVE ON THE LEFT BANK 
  UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE IS INUNDATED. CREEKWOOD DRIVE HAS SEVERAL 
  FEET OF WATER ON IT, AND WATER IS APPROACHING HOMES.

$$

PAC043-075-107-240239-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0113.000000T0000Z-111124T0900Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.111123T1325Z.111123T1800Z.111124T0300Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 10.0 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER ISOLATES SEVERAL HOUSES.

$$

PAC043-075-240239-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0114.111124T0000Z-111124T0600Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.111124T0000Z.111124T0000Z.111124T0000Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$
966 
WGUS81 KCTP 232020
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
320 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

PAC061-240820-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-111124T1400Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.111123T0719Z.111123T1601Z.111124T0800Z.NO/
320 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURING.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS FROM AUGHWICK CREEK COVER PORTIONS OF 
  GILBO ROAD, AUGHWICK MILLS ROAD AND KEYSTONE ROAD IN SHIRLEY 
  TOWNSHIP.

$$

PAC041-240819-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-111125T1400Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.111123T1123Z.111124T0500Z.111125T0800Z.NO/
320 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.8 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.8 FEET JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-240819-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-111124T2034Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.111123T0900Z.111123T1731Z.111124T1434Z.UU/
320 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE 
  MORNING TOMORROW.
* AT 9.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT
  ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.  CEDAR CLIFF DRIVE ON THE LEFT BANK 
  UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE IS INUNDATED. CREEKWOOD DRIVE HAS SEVERAL 
  FEET OF WATER ON IT, AND WATER IS APPROACHING HOMES.

$$

PAC043-075-107-240800-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0113.000000T0000Z-111124T0800Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.111123T1325Z.111123T1915Z.111124T0200Z.NO/
320 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.0 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER ISOLATES SEVERAL HOUSES.

$$

PAC043-075-240819-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0114.111123T2300Z-111124T1200Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.111123T2300Z.111124T0000Z.111124T0600Z.NO/
320 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 3 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.9 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$
199 
WGUS81 KCTP 240352
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1052 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING.

&&

PAC061-241500-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-111124T1500Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.111123T0719Z.111123T1601Z.111124T0900Z.NO/
1052 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 10 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS FROM AUGHWICK CREEK COVER PORTIONS OF 
  GILBO ROAD, AUGHWICK MILLS ROAD AND KEYSTONE ROAD IN SHIRLEY 
  TOWNSHIP.

$$

PAC041-241552-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-111125T1400Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.111123T1123Z.111124T0600Z.111125T0800Z.NO/
1052 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 10 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST AND WILL BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-241200-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-111124T1200Z/
/CPHP1.3.ER.111123T0900Z.111124T0230Z.111124T0600Z.UU/
1052 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 10 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE  
  EARLY MORNING HOURS.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC043-075-107-241200-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0113.000000T0000Z-111124T1200Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.111123T1325Z.111124T0045Z.111124T0600Z.NO/
1052 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 9 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY DAY BREAK
  THANKSGIVING MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER ISOLATES SEVERAL HOUSES.

$$

PAC043-075-241300-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-111124T1300Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.111123T2215Z.111124T0244Z.111124T0700Z.NO/
1052 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 10 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET AND CRESTING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURING.
* THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE EARLY
  MORNING HOURS. 
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$
HEAD
348 
WGUS81 KCTP 240555
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
1255 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC041-241755-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-111125T1400Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.111123T1123Z.111124T0600Z.111125T0800Z.NO/
1255 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 1 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST AND WILL THEN FALL SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
  36 HOURS...FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-241200-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-111124T1200Z/
/CPHP1.3.ER.111123T0900Z.111124T0230Z.111124T0600Z.UU/
1255 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 12 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET AND STEADY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC043-075-107-241200-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0113.000000T0000Z-111124T1200Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.111123T1325Z.111124T0045Z.111124T0600Z.NO/
1255 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 1 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
  MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL DRIVEWAYS AND OTHER MINOR ROADWAYS ARE 
  AFFECTED.  WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME BASEMENTS.

$$

PAC043-075-241300-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-111124T1300Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.111123T2215Z.111124T0532Z.111124T0700Z.NO/
1255 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 1 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS
  MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

PAC061-240625-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-111124T1500Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.111123T0719Z.111123T1601Z.111124T0519Z.NO/
1255 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 12 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.9 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12 AM THURSDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 6.6 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG EXCEEDS ITS 
  BANKS. SEVERAL HOMES ARE AFFECTED.

$$
620 
WGUS81 KCTP 240826
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
326 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED BY LATE MORNING.

&&

PAC041-242026-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-111125T1400Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.111123T1123Z.111124T0745Z.111125T0800Z.NO/
326 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 3 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.4 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FALLING...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-241426-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-111124T1426Z/
/CPHP1.3.ER.111123T0900Z.111124T0230Z.111124T0826Z.UU/
326 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 3 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY FALLING...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD
  STAGE LATER THIS MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC043-075-107-240856-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0113.000000T0000Z-111124T1200Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.111123T1325Z.111124T0045Z.111124T0613Z.NO/
326 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 2 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.5 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 1 AM THURSDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

$$

PAC043-075-241600-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0114.000000T0000Z-111124T1600Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.111123T2215Z.111124T0532Z.111124T1000Z.NO/
326 AM EST THU NOV 24 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* AT 3 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING...AND FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE LATER THIS MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

RXR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Nov 23, 1:17 AM EST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 23, 1:17 AM EST, 1 hour 43 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
117 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL MAKE SOME MINOR FLOODING BEFORE IT IS ALL OVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SEE HYDRO SECTION. THE RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW WEAKNESS IN THE
REFLECTIVITY BEHIND A THIN N-S LINE OF VERY INTENSE RAINFALL
MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SC MTS. RAIN ALSO GETTING
HEAVIER IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THAT LINE. EXPECT RIGHT NOW TO BE
THE HEAVIEST/MOST INTENSE TIME FOR RAIN ALL NIGHT. THE RADARS TO
THE WEST SHOW VIRTUALLY NOTHING PAST PITTSBURGH. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT STILL HAS A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT AND A BLATANT
SPIN IN THE ECHOES OVER WRN LAKE ERIE IS PROBABLY THE TROUGH. A
DEFORMATION BAND IS ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE MIXED
LAYERS BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM LOOKS
A BIT COMPLICATED WITH MODELS IMPLYING THAT THE LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OVER SRN PA OR NRN WV...BEFORE MOVING THRU
SOUTHEASTERN PA EARLY WED MORNING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
MILDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO CREEP INTO MY FAR SERN
ZONES...POSSIBLY ADDING CONVECTION TO THE QPF MIX AND LOCALLY
ENHANCING RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ALREADY EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1-2.5
INCH RAINFALL BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IF ANY KIND
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND WE SEE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BY 12Z WED THE NEW 00Z NAM SHOWS THE LOW TO BE MORE OR LESS ON
TOP OF PHL...ON A TRACK TOWARD CAPE COD BY MID DAY. THIS TIMING
SUGGESTS THE STEADY RAIN WILL BE ENDING...TAPERING TO SHOWERS AS
THE LOW ACCELERATES EASTWARD. SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE
USUAL WESTERN UPPER ELEVATIONS...MAYBE EVEN MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS PRECIP WINDS DOWN LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS DROP ALL DAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT ON WED
SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER AS IT SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND RETURN FLOW KICKS IN PRETTY QUICKLY FOR THURS AND FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL PATTERN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FROM
THANKSGIVING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE FCST MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL AS MILD SWLY FLOW
DRAWS WARM AIR NEWD AROUND THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
STRONG PLAINS/MS VLY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A VERY DEEP MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
INVOF THE CENTRAL MS/LWR OH VLYS BY 28/12Z. THE 12Z CMC IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE MID LEVEL TROF AND CLOSED LOW INTO THE UPPER
OH VALLEY BY MON WHILE AWAITING ANOTHER STRONG UPSTREAM DIGGING
TROF. EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE THE WEAKEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLNS. MODELS USUALLY HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF AND MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF CUTOFF LOWS AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER BY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A MULTI-
MODEL/GUIDANCE BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE FCST.

IN GENERAL...THE SHARPENING MID-LVL TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT SHOULD ALLOW DEEP GOMEX MSTR TO BE DRAWN NWD ALONG AND AHEAD
OF SHARP N-S FRONT BOUNDARY PUSHING EWD ACRS THE GREAT
LKS/MID-SOUTH/GULF CST TWD THE APPALACHIANS BY MON. HI PWATS SHOULD
SURGE NWD UP INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH HVY PCPN PSBL
ALONG/AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVG NEGATIVELY TILTED FRONT. TIMING PER GFS/EC
WOULD BE TUES...WITH CMC ABOUT 36-48 HOURS EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NE TOWARD NW PA HAS PRODUCED INTENSE
BANDS OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A LOT OF VARIATION IN WINDS.
LLWS OF CONCERN.

DRY SLOT MOVING IN FAST SHOULD CUT OFF THE HEAVY RAIN
IN A FEW HOURS. LOW TOP THUNDER POSSIBLE.

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH
OF TODAY.

MOST OF THE PERIOD THU INTO SAT WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...AS A HUGE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF STATES.

OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS W MTNS EARLY.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SHRA POSS...ESP LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FOUR RIVER POINTS AT SHIRLEYSBURG AND THE THREE
SMALLER TRIBS OF THE SUSQ JUST WEST OF HARRISBURG HAVE JUST BEEN
ISSUED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THRU RIGHT NOW AND WATERWAYS
ALREADY RISING RAPIDLY. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHERE IT
IS...AS IT IS A LITTLE TOO LATE TO EXPAND IT AT THIS POINT.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ057>059-
066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...DANGELO
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 22, 2:54 PM EST, 12 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-063>065-232000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
254 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MODERATE RAINFALL OF BETWEEN ONE INCH AND TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS RAIN MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
PLACES WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS COULD SEE SHARP RISES TO NEAR BANK FULL. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LARGER
WATERWAYS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ057>059-066-232000-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-LANCASTER-
254 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A MODERATE RAINFALL OF BETWEEN ONE INCH AND THREE INCHES
IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS RAIN MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
PLACES WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS COULD SEE SHARP RISES TO NEAR BANK FULL. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
LARGER WATERWAYS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 23, 12:02 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningCTPHuntingdon25 hr
Nov 23, 12:02 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningCTPPerry15 hr
Nov 23, 12:02 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningCTPCumberland46 hr
Nov 23, 12:02 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningCTPCumberland, York33 hr
Nov 23, 12:04 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPAdams, Bedford, Blair, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin and 9 more6 hr
Nov 23, 3:00 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningCTPDauphin, Lebanon27 hr
Nov 23, 6:03 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryCTPAdams, Bedford, Blair, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin and 9 more117 min
Nov 23, 7:37 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningCTPLancaster3 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2011Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.