River Flood Warning 110, NWS State College, PA

185 
WGUS81 KCTP 230816
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

PAC061-232016-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-111124T1424Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.111123T0719Z.111123T1800Z.111124T0824Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 12.2 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS FROM AUGHWICK CREEK COVER PORTIONS OF 
  GILBO ROAD, AUGHWICK MILLS ROAD AND KEYSTONE ROAD IN SHIRLEY 
  TOWNSHIP.

$$

PAC099-232015-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0110.111123T0900Z-111123T2217Z/
/SMDP1.1.ER.111123T0900Z.111123T1200Z.111123T1617Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 9.5 FEET BY THIS MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL HOMES ALONG RIVER ROAD ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC041-232015-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0111.111123T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.111123T1200Z.111124T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND
  CREST NEAR 9.6 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-232015-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0112.111123T1200Z-111124T1700Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.111123T1200Z.111123T2300Z.111124T1100Z.UU/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS MORNING AND
  CREST NEAR 7.8 FEET THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...LOW LYING AREAS IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT 
  ON THE RIGHT BANK OF YELLOW BREECHES CREEK BEGIN TO FLOOD.  A 
  MOBILE HOME PARK NEAR WILLIAMS GROVE IS ALSO AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC043-075-107-232015-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0113.111123T1400Z-111124T0336Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.111123T1400Z.111123T1800Z.111123T2136Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 9.3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL DRIVEWAYS AND OTHER MINOR ROADWAYS ARE 
  AFFECTED.  WATER BEGINS TO ENTER SOME BASEMENTS.

$$

PAC043-075-232015-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0114.111123T1500Z-111124T0130Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.111123T1500Z.111123T1800Z.111123T1930Z.NO/
316 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO THIS EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 3 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.1 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS 
  MORNING AND CREST NEAR 7.1 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

673 
WGUS81 KCTP 231440
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG
  SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE
  YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL
  SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN
  SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY
  CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

AN UPDATE TO THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PAC061-240240-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0109.000000T0000Z-111124T1642Z/
/SLYP1.2.ER.111123T0719Z.111123T1800Z.111124T1042Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE AUGHWICK CREEK AT SHIRLEYSBURG.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 13.0 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT 12.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS FROM AUGHWICK CREEK COVER PORTIONS OF 
  GILBO ROAD, AUGHWICK MILLS ROAD AND KEYSTONE ROAD IN SHIRLEY 
  TOWNSHIP.

$$

PAC099-232224-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-111123T2224Z/
/SMDP1.1.ER.111123T0850Z.111123T1415Z.111123T1624Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.5 FEET AND FALLING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST AND WILL FALL BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE 
  THIS MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL HOMES ALONG RIVER ROAD ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

PAC041-240239-
/O.CON.KCTP.FL.W.0111.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HGSP1.1.ER.111123T1123Z.111124T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONODOGUINET CREEK NEAR HOGESTOWN.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 9.5 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN 
  BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...SOME RESIDENCES IN THE VICINITY OF ERB'S BRIDGE 
  ROAD...PROWELL ROAD...STONE SPRING LANE...AND OYSTER MILL ROAD ARE 
  FLOODED.

$$

PAC041-133-240239-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0112.000000T0000Z-111124T2300Z/
/CPHP1.1.ER.111123T0900Z.111124T0000Z.111124T1700Z.UU/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE YELLOW BREECHES CREEK NEAR CAMP HILL.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 8.9 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
* AT 9.0 FEET...A NUMBER OF HOMES IN THE GREEN LANE FARMS DEVELOPMENT
  ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.  CEDAR CLIFF DRIVE ON THE LEFT BANK 
  UPSTREAM FROM THE BRIDGE IS INUNDATED. CREEKWOOD DRIVE HAS SEVERAL 
  FEET OF WATER ON IT, AND WATER IS APPROACHING HOMES.

$$

PAC043-075-107-240239-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0113.000000T0000Z-111124T0900Z/
/HTVP1.1.ER.111123T1325Z.111123T1800Z.111124T0300Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK AT HARPER TAVERN.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.2 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CREST NEAR 10.0 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
* AT 10.0 FEET...HIGH WATER ISOLATES SEVERAL HOUSES.

$$

PAC043-075-240239-
/O.EXT.KCTP.FL.W.0114.111124T0000Z-111124T0600Z/
/HERP1.1.ER.111124T0000Z.111124T0000Z.111124T0000Z.NO/
940 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SWATARA CREEK NEAR HERSHEY.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 9 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET AND RISING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* AT 7.0 FEET...THE RIGHT...OR NORTH BANK BEGINS TO OVERFLOW.  
  SEVERAL ROADWAYS UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH WATER.

$$

461 
WGUS81 KCTP 232023
FLSCTP
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
323 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...

  SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS!!  THE WATER 
MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE.  MOST DEATHS THAT OCCUR DURING
FLOODING ARE RELATED TO VEHICLES TRYING TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.


&&

PAC099-232053-
/O.CAN.KCTP.FL.W.0110.000000T0000Z-111123T2224Z/
/SMDP1.1.ER.111123T0850Z.111123T1415Z.111123T1738Z.NO/
323 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SHERMAN CREEK AT SHERMANS DALE.
* AT 2 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.6 FEET AND FALLING.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 1 PM WEDNESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING TO 4.5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT 9.0 FEET...SEVERAL HOMES ALONG RIVER ROAD ARE AFFECTED BY HIGH 
  WATER.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1047 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOAKING RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS A STRONG STORM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A STEADY SOAKING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW AT 03Z WAS JUST NORTH OF CMH WITH
STRONGEST SHORT TERM PRESSURE FALLS AIMING AT NRN PA/SRN NY. THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM LOOKS A BIT COMPLICATED WITH MODELS
IMPLYING THAT THE LOW WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT OVER
SRN PA OR NRN WV...BEFORE MOVING THRU SOUTHEASTERN PA EARLY WED
MORNING. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MILDER MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
CREEP INTO MY FAR SERN ZONES...POSSIBLY ADDING CONVECTION TO THE
QPF MIX AND LOCALLY ENHANCING RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ALREADY EXPECT
A WIDESPREAD 1-2.5 INCH RAINFALL BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD
RESULT IF ANY KIND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AS THE LOW
APPROACHES AND WE SEE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY 12Z WED THE NEW NAM SHOWS THE LOW TO BE MORE OR LESS ON TOP OF
PHL...ON A TRACK TOWARD CAPE COD BY MID DAY. THIS TIMING SUGGESTS
THE STEADY RAIN WILL BE ENDING...TAPERING TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW
ACCELERATES EASTWARD. SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE USUAL
WESTERN UPPER ELEVATIONS...MAYBE EVEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS PRECIP WINDS DOWN.

A TIGHT GRADIENT ON WED SUGGESTS SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THE DEVELOPING NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH MOST SHOWERS DRYING UP BY LATE
DAY EVEN OVER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL PATTERN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FROM
THANKSGIVING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE FCST MODERATE ABOVE NORMAL AS MILD SWLY FLOW
DRAWS WARM AIR NEWD AROUND THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
STRONG PLAINS/MS VLY FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A VERY DEEP MID LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
INVOF THE CENTRAL MS/LWR OH VLYS BY 28/12Z. THE 12Z CMC IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE TAKING THE MID LEVEL TROF AND CLOSED LOW INTO THE UPPER
OH VALLEY BY MON WHILE AWAITING ANOTHER STRONG UPSTREAM DIGGING
TROF. EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE THE WEAKEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE
SOLNS. MODELS USUALLY HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF AND MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF CUTOFF LOWS AND CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER BY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A MULTI-
MODEL/GUIDANCE BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE FCST.

IN GENERAL...THE SHARPENING MID-LVL TROUGH AND BACKING FLOW WITH
HEIGHT SHOULD ALLOW DEEP GOMEX MSTR TO BE DRAWN NWD ALONG AND AHEAD
OF SHARP N-S FRONT BOUNDARY PUSHING EWD ACRS THE GREAT
LKS/MID-SOUTH/GULF CST TWD THE APPALACHIANS BY MON. HI PWATS SHOULD
SURGE NWD UP INTO THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH HVY PCPN PSBL
ALONG/AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVG NEGATIVELY TILTED FRONT. TIMING PER GFS/EC
WOULD BE TUES...WITH CMC ABOUT 36-48 HOURS EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO THIS EVENING WILL TRACK ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND PREDOMINANTLY IFR CIGS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT A TSRA
AT MDT/LNS TOWARDS DAWN. A STRONG SOUTHERLY LL JET...COMBINED
WITH MUCH LIGHTER SE WINDS AT THE SFC...WILL RESULT IN LLWS ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL PA THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LLWS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...AS THE LL JET SHIFTS EAST.

DOWNSLOPING FLOW CURRENTLY RESULTING IN HIGHER CIGS AT IPT...BUT
IFR CIGS STILL LIKELY THERE LATER TONIGHT WHEN WINDS DIMINISH. AT
JST...AN EXPECTED VEERING OF THE SFC WIND TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
OCCUR ARND MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS IFR VERY
UNLIKELY WITH A SOUTH WIND DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW...SO HAVE GONE
MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN MOS GUIDANCE THERE.

AS STORM SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF THE REGION LATE WED AM...A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WNW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR. AREAS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING MVFR
CIGS AT JST AND BFD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO
ARND 30KTS DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS W MTNS.
FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...SHRA POSS...ESP LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. EXPECTED
QPF WITH A MIX OF ENSEMBLES AND SREF MEANS ALONG WITH LATEST HPC
MAN AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5-2.5 INCHES. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL OVER THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
POCONOS AND SC MTNS. THIS AREA IS THE WETTEST OF ALL THE CWA WITH
FFG AND FFH VALUES LOWEST THERE. MINOR FLOODING AT A FEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER REACHES OF THE JUNIATA...SWATARA AND SCHUYLKILL BASINS
IS POSSIBLE. FFH AT THOSE POINTS 2-2.5 IN 12HRS. THE BIGGEST
THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL BE TONIGHT WHERE THAT REGION IS LOOKING
TO RECEIVE 1 TO 2.5 IN 12 HRS. THE BASINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION/THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS AND INTO
THE LOWER SUSQ. WITH THE AREAS ALREADY RECEIVING AROUND 0.5 INCH...THIS
COULD NUDGE THE QPF/TIME RATIO UP ENOUGH TO MAKE THOSE SMALLER
RIVER POINTS FLOOD. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...THE
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH THE
GROWING SEASON WELL OVER...LEAF LITTER MAY CLOG STORM
DRAINS AND SOME PROBLEMS COULD CROP UP IN THE FORM OF VERY
LOCALIZED/URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ057>059-
066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
254 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-063>065-232000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
254 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MODERATE RAINFALL OF BETWEEN ONE INCH AND TWO INCHES IS EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS RAIN MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
PLACES WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS COULD SEE SHARP RISES TO NEAR BANK FULL. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE LARGER
WATERWAYS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ057>059-066-232000-
DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-LANCASTER-
254 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A MODERATE RAINFALL OF BETWEEN ONE INCH AND THREE INCHES
IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS RAIN MAY
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
PLACES WHERE FALLEN LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS COULD SEE SHARP RISES TO NEAR BANK FULL. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
LARGER WATERWAYS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

PAZ006-037-230145-
POTTER PA-TIOGA PA-
645 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2011

...PATCHY FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT POTTER AND TIOGA COUNTIES...

AS AN AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING COULD
LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN.

EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY TRAVEL AS UNTREATED ROADS AND
WALKWAYS COULD BECOME ICY AND DANGEROUS.

LAT...LON 4200 7693 4159 7688 4154 7760 4147 7802
      4165 7820 4199 7820

FORECASTER: LA CORTE