Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE FLOODING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
RAIN WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY AS A
CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD. LEAVING US IN A MOIST AND SHOWERY
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR SHOULD LEAD TO
STEADILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST WITH NEW DATA...MOSTLY WORKED ON POPS AND QPF FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTH-SOUTH BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND GENERALLY UP THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEY. THE WESTERN EDGE IS EXPANDING AND RAIN SHOULD RETURN TO
CENTRAL AREAS SHORTLY. MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINS OVER THE NEXT
0-8 HOURS SHOULD FROM ABOUT STATE COLLEGE EAST. NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WILL BE SHOWERY.

BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE AND MODELS AND SREF EXPECT HEAVY
RAIN IN THE MAIN BAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY ACROSS YORK
COUNTY NORTHWARD TO THE NY BORDER. WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL MONITOR HOW FAR WEST THIS AREA EXPANDS.

RAIN COULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HRRR IMPLIES
ANOTHER BAND AND THERE IS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE IR OVER NC. THE
NAM AND GFS LIKELY HAVE THE PW PLUME TOO FAR WEST BASED ON THE
SURGE OF HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES...ENHANCED IR AND WV LOOPS.
FAVORED AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF HEAVY RAINS TO EAST AS INDICATED IN
4KM NAM AND 3KM HRRR.

REPORTS AND RADAR CONFIRM RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR HAVE BEEN
COMMON. THERE HAVE BEEN EVACUATIONS AND WATER RESCUES BOTH
YORK...DAUPHIN...WESTERN LANCASTER AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MOST GUIDANCE NOW IMPLIES HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER EASTERN HALF OR
THIRD OF THE REGION. THE RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AND VORACITY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE
REGION AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE EASTERN
AREAS IN CASE ONE LAST SIGNIFICANT BAND SHOULD FORM. THE HRRR HAS
ONE BUT IT IS WEAKER AS FORECAST AND WOULD BE IN EXTREME EASTERN
AREAS.

KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN AREAS MIDNIGHT AS WE MAY HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH ONE LAST N-S BAND IN EXTREME EASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 06
AND 12Z.

RAIN SHOULD BE LESS ORGANIZED AND LESS OF AN IMPACT AFTER
ABOUT 15Z ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE WATER IN CREEKS AND RIVERS AS IT
ROUTES DOWNSTREAM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHOWERY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. WHILE THE MODELS
HINT AT EASTERN AREAS NOT SEEING MUCH...THERE STILL COULD BE A
SHOWER. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO BE ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TS LEE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND
LIFT OUT...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH DAY TO DAY CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE TUE
INTO WED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK.

WHILE TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL REMAINS HARD TO SEE A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. BEST CHC FOR DRY
WEATHER WILL BE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BANDS OF MODERATE AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WILL
KEEP LOW CIGS AND VISBY OVER MOST OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM
KTHV-KMDT-KSEG-KIPT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR OVER
THE REGION.

FAR WESTERN AREAS WILL BE MIX VFR AND MVFR BUT LOWERED CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL PA.

FLYING OVER EAST OF KAOO-KUNV-KIPT BEWARE THERE COULD BE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.

LESS WIDESPREAD RAINS ON THURSDAY BUT MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...MVFR/IFR.
FRI-SUN...VFR/MVFR.
MON-TUE...VFR/MVFR

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF RNFL IS EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMTS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES PSBL. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH
THE EXACT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RNFL AND AMTS. SIGNIFICANT
AREAL AND RIVER/STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FCST AMTS.
SEVERAL RIVER POINT FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED WITH
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING EXPECTED...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLOOD CRESTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-
017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GARTNER/MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO
HYDROLOGY...DANGELO/ROSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-080930-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
535 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-080930-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
LANCASTER-
535 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF FLOODING...THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
122 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

PAZ059-066-071745-
LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
122 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT EASTERN LEBANON AND
NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTIES...

AT 114 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MOUNT JOY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT CORNWALL AND MYERSTOWN.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THIS ENTIRE
AREA.

SLIGHT ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THIS STORM. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED.

LAT...LON 4004 7636 4009 7659 4050 7643 4032 7616

FORECASTER: DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
148 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMPBELLTOWN            40.28N  76.58W
09/07/2011                   LEBANON            PA   PUBLIC

            PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS ACROSS LEBANON COUNTY.

0136 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ELIZABETHTOWN           40.15N  76.60W
09/07/2011                   LANCASTER          PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CONOY CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS. NORTH MARKET STREET
            CLOSED.

0140 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WEIGELSTOWN             39.99N  76.83W
09/07/2011                   YORK               PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 74 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING NEAR WEST MANCHESTER
            TWP AND DOVER TWP LINE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100413 CTP1100411 CTP1100412

EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

PAZ065-066-071830-
LANCASTER PA-YORK PA-
217 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL YORK AND WESTERN
LANCASTER COUNTIES...

AT 213 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WINDSOR...MOVING NORTH
AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND
FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS. DOPPLER RADAR HAS DETECTED SOME ROTATION IN THIS
STORM. BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MANCHESTER...COLUMBIA...MOUNT JOY AND MANHEIM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 265 AND 276...I-83 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 12 AND 19.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
283...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 501.

LAT...LON 3989 7670 4014 7669 4021 7654 4024 7643
      4025 7630 4028 7624 3984 7648

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
256 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

PAZ059-066-071930-
LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
256 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LEBANON
AND EASTERN LANCASTER COUNTIES...

AT 251 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
KLEINFELTERSVILLE TO NEW HOLLAND TO BLAKE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE WINDS CAN
KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND EVEN TREES WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY
SATURATED.

SLIGHT ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THIS LINE OF STORMS.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO
WARNING IS ISSUED.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND
WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE
RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT KLEINFELTERSVILLE AND CHURCHTOWN. FLOOD AND FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 273
AND 295.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30 FROM
PARADISE TO THE CHESTER COUNTY LINE...ROUTE 222 FROM NEAR AKRON TO
THE BERKS COUNTY LINE...ROUTE 322 FROM WEST OF BRICKERVILLE TO THE
CHESTER COUNTY LINE...ROUTE 422 FROM CLEONA TO EAST OF LEBANON...
STATE ROAD 41...STATE ROAD 501.

LAT...LON 4009 7614 4036 7652 4036 7620 4014 7587
      4011 7593 4004 7593 3996 7599 3987 7598
      3985 7601 3983 7601 3979 7604 3972 7610
      3972 7612

FORECASTER: DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
323 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     FLOOD            LAUREL                  39.83N  76.51W
09/07/2011                   YORK               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A BRIDGE OVER MUDDY CREEK AND NEARBY ROADS ARE FLOODED.

0319 PM     FLOOD            MOUNT HOLLY SPRINGS     40.11N  77.18W
09/07/2011                   CUMBERLAND         PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES NEAR YELLOW BREECHES CREEK IN
            SOUTH MIDDLETON TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100415 CTP1100416

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
629 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLOOD            YORK                    39.96N  76.73W
09/07/2011                   YORK               PA   911 CALL CENTER

            I-83 FLOODED AND CLOSED AT YORK

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100417

MACH