Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Charleston, SC

499 
WWUS52 KCHS 272140
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
540 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

GAC029-051-103-179-272150-
/O.CAN.KCHS.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-110327T2215Z/
EFFINGHAM GA-BRYAN GA-LIBERTY GA-CHATHAM GA-
540 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CHATHAM...NORTHERN
LIBERTY...BRYAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL EFFINGHAM COUNTIES HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 536 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED
THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED.

ALTHOUGH THE IMMEDIATE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL HAS
ENDED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE SAFEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO REMAIN INDOORS
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 3207 8163 3223 8146 3218 8112 3173 8118
      3188 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 296DEG 31KT 3201 8114 3176 8138

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...AS COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEDGES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...FUELED BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TRACKING WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THESE
LOCATIONS HAVE REMAINED WITHIN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE
WARM SECTOR MUCH LONGER THAN SOUTH CAROLINA LOCATIONS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT STRONGEST CONVECTION TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTHWARD AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...FOLLOWING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND MOST
UNSTABLE AIR. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ALLOWING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED OF
FRONTAL PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT AND THE RESULTING SURGE OF COOLER
AIR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THERE COULD BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION DESPITE THE DEVELOPING WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
PROBABILITIES MONDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH AGAIN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY GETS DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE REGION BY A SLIGHT RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT. WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...YET WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE
DAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS AND A SERIES OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVES
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA IN CONCERT
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH-END CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH LIKELY POPS WILL PROBABLY BE INTRODUCED AT SOME POINT
ASSUMING GUIDANCE TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DUE TO LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. OVERALL...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREA
WIDE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINTAINING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO MEANDER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF CLIMO
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH
NORTHEAST AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM LIFR TO IFR LATE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSAV...WEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SHOWERS
ENTER THE REGION AND MVFR CIGS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. WEST WIND GUSTS
WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE TAF DURING 19Z
THROUGH 23Z. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL BY 00Z AS FROPA OCCURS AND A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LIFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST BY 00Z
AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINING 24 HOUR TAF.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM LIFR TO IFR LATE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR AND PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MARINE ZONES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION THE
LAST TO TRANSITION TO NORTHEAST FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A
DECENT SURGE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KT IN SOME PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHER WELL OFFSHORE.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SEAS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
507 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

AMZ374-282115-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
507 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-GAZ087-088-099>101-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-282115-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-
CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-
DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-
CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-TIDAL BERKELEY-
507 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ354-GAZ114>119-137>141-282115-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND BRYAN-
COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-
COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
507 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
449 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             SAVANNAH                32.05N  81.08W
03/27/2011  M1.00 INCH       CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100227

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
452 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             RINCON                  32.30N  81.24W
03/27/2011  M1.75 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL HAIL. DENTED CARS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100228

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
454 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             RINCON                  32.30N  81.24W
03/27/2011  M1.25 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED GROUND. DENTED CARS AND A CAMPER. LEAVES
            STRIPPED OFF OAK TREES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100229

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
455 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             WILMINGTON ISLAND       32.01N  80.98W
03/27/2011  M1.00 INCH       CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100231

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
505 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             2 ESE RIVERSIDE         32.03N  80.97W
03/27/2011  M1.25 INCH       CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

            HAIL OCCURRING BETWEEN 420 AND 430 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100232

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
507 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             TYBEE ISLAND            32.00N  80.85W
03/27/2011  M1.00 INCH       CHATHAM            GA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100233

33