Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Charleston, SC

168 
WWUS52 KCHS 271923
SVSCHS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
323 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

GAC029-031-103-109-272000-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110327T2000Z/
EVANS GA-EFFINGHAM GA-BULLOCH GA-BRYAN GA-
323 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BRYAN...SOUTHEASTERN BULLOCH...WEST CENTRAL
EFFINGHAM AND EAST CENTRAL EVANS COUNTIES...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR NEVILS...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF BAY...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BAY...
DENMARK...ELLABELL...GROVELAND...LANIER...NEVILS...PEMBROKE AND
STILSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE...CONTACT THE CHARLESTON NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-888-383-2024 OR EMAIL YOUR REPORTS TO
CHS.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV. REPORTS CAN ALSO BE SENT THROUGH TWITTER USING
#WXREPORT.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 8147 3207 8148 3211 8171 3213 8181
      3230 8179 3236 8180
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 270DEG 37KT 3223 8170

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
304 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A
LINGERING FRONT TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT...AS COLDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE
ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE CANCELED
THE WATCH NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE FOR ALL OF THE SC
ZONES...EXCEPT BEAUFORT AND JASPER COUNTIES. ALL OF THE GA ZONES
STILL REMAIN IN THE WATCH THROUGH 5 PM.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE DESCENDING FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY STAYING
IN MID TO UPPER 60S. DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR...SUGGEST ORGANIZED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND THE SEABREEZE COULD INTERACT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONT TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AND FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT...THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WOULD
SUGGEST A LOWER CHANCE OF TORNADOES...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTENTLY TRACK ALONG
BOUNDARIES.

WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THIS FEATURE. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WITH INLAND SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 60 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COUNTIES RISING TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER
TRENDS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THICKENING SKY COVER
COULD SLOW WARMING AND DESTABILIZATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEDGE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND COLDEST IN ITS WAKE. CONVECTION MAY STILL BE
ROBUST IN THE EARLY EVENING IN PARTS OF SE GEORGIA...THEN LIGHTER
SCATTERED RAINS ARE POSSIBLE LATE. SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION
LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AND NUMBERS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN LESS THAN DESIRABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIODS THIS MORNING...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION DESPITE THE DEVELOPING WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT HIGHEST RAIN
PROBABILITIES MONDAY MORNING...WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK DOWN/ERODE ON
TUESDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON
TUESDAY...THEN CARRY CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER
40S INLAND...AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ABLE TO BREAK
DOWN. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AREA WIDE.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S MOST LOCALES...WITH
HIGHS WEDNESDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DUE TO LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. OVERALL...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREA
WIDE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINTAINING RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO MEANDER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF CLIMO
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH
NORTHEAST AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM LIFR TO IFR LATE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KSAV...WEST WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SHOWERS
ENTER THE REGION AND MVFR CIGS ENCOMPASS THE AREA. WEST WIND GUSTS
WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE TAF DURING 19Z
THROUGH 23Z. IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL BY 00Z AS FROPA OCCURS AND A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. LIFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST BY 00Z
AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINING 24 HOUR TAF.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM LIFR TO IFR LATE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MVFR AND PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A LINGERING FRONT WILL BISECT THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
TODAY...WITH WINDS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION AND
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY FIRST...WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS MORE
PERSISTENT CLOSER TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SHOULD PERSIST ALL DAY TO THE SOUTH OF SAVANNAH...AROUND
GRAYS REEF. THE COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT IF A FEW OF THE
MODEL PINCHING TRENDS ARE CORRECT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REACH
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LATE NIGHT
SURGES TO AT LEAST 15 KT. ELSEWHERE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO 20 KT IS
LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHER WELL OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SEAS REACHING SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...SEAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH ADVISORY
LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
249 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

AMZ374-281000-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
249 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG
AND TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AMZ352-354-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ047-048-051-281000-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-
EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-
COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-INLAND JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL JASPER-
249 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 68 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AMZ330-350-SCZ040-042>045-049-050-052-281000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-INLAND BERKELEY-
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-TIDAL BERKELEY-
249 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NECESSARY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
251 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             COBBTOWN                32.28N  82.14W
03/27/2011  M1.50 INCH       TATTNALL           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CALLED BACK WITH LARGER HAIL NOW FALLING AT HIS
            HOUSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100191

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
256 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             1 ENE GUYTON            32.34N  81.37W
03/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100195

JHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
258 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     HAIL             SPRINGFIELD             32.37N  81.38W
03/27/2011  M0.88 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100193

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
300 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             SPRINGFIELD             32.37N  81.38W
03/27/2011  M1.00 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100194

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
302 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             2 E GUYTON              32.34N  81.36W
03/27/2011  M1.75 INCH       EFFINGHAM          GA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100196

JRL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
303 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             5 N CLAXTON             32.23N  81.90W
03/27/2011  M1.75 INCH       EVANS              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100197

JRL