Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
318 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO
MARCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BECOMING SEVERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST
STATES. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY THE EVENING.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND END ALONG THE COAST
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS RESULTED
TORNADO WATCH 248 THROUGH 8AM FOR THE CSRA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND
80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE GULF COAST AND BUILDS EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
COAST MONDAY. NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY DEEPENS WHILE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
NATION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY
LATE MONDAY. GFS INDICATE THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TUESDAY.
POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...REDUCING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MOVE INTO AGS/DNL
AROUND 08 TO 09Z ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THEN INTO
CAE/CUB/OGB BETWEEN 09 AND 10Z. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES AND SEVERE WEATHER SO EXPECT SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS AT A MINIMUM FOR ALL TAF SITES. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TAF
SITES BY 15Z WITH WINDS REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY AS THEY VEER TO
WESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MP
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
114 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-018-020>022-025>028-030-290515-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-MCCORMICK-
NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-AIKEN-
114 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 248 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   TORNADO WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SCZ016-029-031-035>038-041-290515-
CHESTERFIELD-LEE-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
114 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.