Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO TOUCH OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
EACH DAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND
PIEDMONT DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE SUGGEST WEAKENING.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOST UNSTABLE PERIOD OF
THE DAY NAMELY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP
THE GOING 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT THURSDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE KICKS IT OUT. A MORE
WESTERLY WINDS FLOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL QUITE
WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
TEMPERATURES START TO COOL OFF THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH BEHIND THE
FIRST OF THE DRY FRONTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY...MAJOR TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE EAST COAST
AND THIS WILL PULL COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING COOLER AUTUMN LIKE AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER EACH DAY. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 50 SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ONE MAY AFFECT OGB
IN THE NEAR TERM. IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF DNL/AGS IN THE NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL INFORMATION NOT HITTING THE STRATUS OR FOG
VERY HARD TONIGHT...JUST INDICATING SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS...AGS AND OGB. BUFKIT INDICATES A SW BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND OVERNIGHT WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR STRATUS.
LITTLE CHANGE WEDNESDAY. WILL EXPECT DIURNAL CU...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT
THUNDER/PRECIP CHANCE WEDNESDAY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE WED NT/THU MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...31