Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
729 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO TOUCH OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
EACH DAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS AND
PIEDMONT DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE SUGGEST WEAKENING.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO TOUCH
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOST UNSTABLE PERIOD OF
THE DAY NAMELY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP
THE GOING 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT THURSDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE KICKS IT OUT. A MORE
WESTERLY WINDS FLOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL QUITE
WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
TEMPERATURES START TO COOL OFF THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH BEHIND THE
FIRST OF THE DRY FRONTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY...MAJOR TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE EAST COAST
AND THIS WILL PULL COOLER DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS PUSHING COOLER AUTUMN LIKE AIR TO
THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER EACH DAY. HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 50 SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ONE MAY AFFECT OGB
IN THE NEAR TERM. IT APPEARS SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF DNL/AGS IN THE NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE...WILL EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL INFORMATION NOT HITTING THE STRATUS OR FOG
VERY HARD TONIGHT...JUST INDICATING SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS...AGS AND OGB. BUFKIT INDICATES A SW BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND OVERNIGHT WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR STRATUS.
LITTLE CHANGE WEDNESDAY. WILL EXPECT DIURNAL CU...WITH SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT
THUNDER/PRECIP CHANCE WEDNESDAY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE WED NT/THU MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
357 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-280800-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
356 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD POSSIBLY
CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
443 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

SCZ027-030-272145-
AIKEN-LEXINGTON-
443 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LEXINGTON AND AIKEN
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...OVER NORTHERN AIKEN COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 28 AND 42. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION.

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1...8 7
7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 8143 3372 8130 3366 8161 3378 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 257DEG 15KT 3375 8150

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
553 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             4 NE AIKEN              33.58N 81.67W
09/27/2011  E2.00 INCH       AIKEN              SC   PUBLIC

            HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALL SIZE COVERING THE GROUND...WIRE
            RD OUTSIDE AIKEN.

&&

DCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
600 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 SSE MONETTA          33.69N 81.56W
09/27/2011                   AIKEN              SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON PIONEER RD. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

DCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
607 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             11 SSE MONETTA          33.69N 81.57W
09/27/2011  E1.25 INCH       AIKEN              SC   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC ON
            GOOSENECK RD...ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20/EXIT
            29. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

DCM

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