Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
405 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

ISSUED AN AFTERNOON UPDATE TO ADD A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FOUR
EASTERN ZONES. BRS

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SMALL HAIL
FROM THE STRONGER CELLS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. MORNING
CLOUD COVER HAS HAMPERED DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE EAST. SOME
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
SELY FLOW WILL ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES. A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GREATER
IN COVERAGE GIVEN THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. CAPE/SHEAR DO
NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR SUNDAY. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BRS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LIMITED POPS DURING THIS TIME.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS DEPICTS A
STAGNANT UPPER-LOW OVER THE WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF IS GENERALLY ZONAL AND PUSHES AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE CWA
BEYOND DAY 8. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS GENERALLY AROUND CLIMATOLOGY
UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES. BLENDED TEMP FORECASTS WITH 12Z
BCCONSALL GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BRS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE GENERALLY EAST OF KBIL. TERMINALS
IMPACTED INCLUDE KMLS AND KBHK. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. BRS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/069 050/073 051/071 050/075 051/070 048/066 047/065
    35/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T
LVM 044/068 044/070 045/070 045/073 045/069 044/064 043/064
    55/T    23/T    43/T    23/T    34/T    33/T    33/T
HDN 050/073 050/076 051/074 050/078 050/074 048/069 047/067
    34/T    32/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T
MLS 052/074 052/074 053/072 052/075 052/073 051/068 049/067
    45/T    42/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    43/T    33/T
4BQ 052/076 052/077 053/073 051/077 052/075 050/071 048/069
    44/T    32/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    23/T
BHK 051/072 052/073 053/071 050/073 050/072 049/067 047/067
    55/T    52/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T
SHR 047/072 047/073 049/071 047/075 049/072 046/067 044/066
    43/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...TORNADO WATCH 465 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
313 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-122115-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
313 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
STORMS INTENSIFYING AS THEY APPROACH FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER FROM WHEATLAND
TO MUSSELSHELL COUNTY. FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE
YELLOWSTONE FROM NEAR FORSYTH TO MILES CITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF WILL KEEP AREA RIVERS RUNNING HIGH.
PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR
RISING WATER LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
349 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

MTZ031-058-112230-
NORTHERN ROSEBUD MT-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD MT-
349 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROSEBUD COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ROSEBUD COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM MDT. AREAS
AFFECTED INCLUDE COLSTRIP SOUTHWARD TO BIRNEY...WHICH ALSO INCLUDES
HIGHWAY 212 FROM LAME DEER TO ASHLAND. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF BUT INTENSE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4535 10676 4536 10673 4568 10672 4568 10691
      4576 10692 4580 10688 4584 10689 4611 10620
      4579 10619 4578 10623 4535 10624 4535 10628
      4529 10628 4517 10675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 242DEG 13KT 4581 10653

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
432 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

MTZ029>031-035-112330-
MUSSELSHELL MT-NORTHERN ROSEBUD MT-TREASURE MT-YELLOWSTONE MT-
432 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROSEBUD...
NORTHEASTERN YELLOWSTONE...NORTHWESTERN TREASURE AND EASTERN
MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 427 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MUSSELSHELL COUNTY
AND NORTHEASTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE
INDICATED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER MUSSELSHELL COUNTY. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON THE MUSSELSHELL
RIVER. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MELSTONE AND MUSSELSHELL.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4650 10736 4607 10780 4644 10826 4675 10794
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 295DEG 14KT 4650 10796

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
537 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             5 N FORSYTH             46.34N 106.70W
06/11/2011  E0.88 INCH       ROSEBUD            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TOMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
544 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

MTZ036-120045-
POWDER RIVER MT-
544 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POWDER RIVER COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
MDT...

AT 536 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROADUS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY BRIEF RAIN. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF
BROADUS BY 630 PM AFFECTING TRAVELERS ON HIGHWAYS 212 AND 59.

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUDDENLY ACROSS POWDER RIVER COUNTY THIS
EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO
MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV
OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4574 10521 4500 10504 4500 10592 4543 10607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 254DEG 25KT 4530 10585