River Flood Warning 30, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1047 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IRENE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAJOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN.
IN ADDITION...STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE WILL
CAUSE TREES AND POWER LINES TO BE DOWNED AND RESULT IN POWER
OUTAGES. DAMAGE TO PROPERTY IS ALSO EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT SUNDAY...

MAJOR FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH FLOODING
REPORTED IN PARTS OF RUTLAND COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. REPORTS
HAVE RANGED FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM IRENE...IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL
TRACK UP INTO VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DYNAMICS/DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHEAST NEW YORK. OF CONCERN IS THE STRONG AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
THAT FORMS ALONG THE NEW YORK AND VERMONT BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT FORMS SHOULD ENHANCE
RAINFALL AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THAT RESULTS IN A SWATH OF 5 TO 7
INCHES IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOOKING AT 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF VERMONT...AROUND AN INCH IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
AREAS THAT RECEIVE OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL EXPERIENCE MAJOR
FLOODING ISSUES. STRONG WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE AS SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE. THERE WILL EVEN BE GUSTS TO
70 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND
POWER LINES...POWER OUTAGES...AND DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF IRENE
QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...BUT THE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
REMNANTS OF IRENE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT SUNDAY...MAINLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF.

IT APPEARS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF IRENE...WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
GENERATE SCATTERED DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS...WITH BEST COVERAGE AND
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS. HAVE INDICATED POPS OF 35-45
PERCENT FOR THE AFTN HRS ACROSS FAR NRN NY/VT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S...AND PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON BALANCE. SUFFICIENT CLEARING
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING PATCHY FOG TO THE FAVORED VALLEYS WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS AS LARGE SFC RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NERN CONUS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. ONE
CHANGE WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSITIVE TILT
500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WHICH ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF AS IT TRACKS EWD INTO NEW
YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS THIS
FEATURE...BUT IT IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH OVER OUR
REGION AND INTO SRN QUEBEC. GIVEN ABSENCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE RUNS...WILL GENERALLY INDICATE JUST MID-UPR CLOUDS
WED-THU BUT NO PCPN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. DEVELOPMENT OF S-SW RETURN
FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO
THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80F. THEREAFTER...COLD FRONT APPROACHING
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IRENE WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
AVIATION WX CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TERRAIN
OBSCD BY LOW CLOUDS/FOG. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NE
25G35KTS THRU EARLY AFTN...AND PEAK 40-50 KTS IN GUSTS AT THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NE TO NW BETWEEN 00-03Z AS LOW
CENTER TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WRN NH THIS EVENING. THE HEAVY
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION GENERALLY OVER BY 06Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
MONDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF IRENE ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS THE
GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z
MONDAY WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THRU
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS - ESPECIALLY TO NRN AREAS - ON
TUESDAY. COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SHOWERS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS GENERALLY VFR WX AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE
RADIATION FOG 06-12Z THU AT MPV/SLK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VERMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
IRENE. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN WITH POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AND MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH RIVERS CRESTING GENERALLY DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLOOD EVENT
AND CLOSE ATTENTION SHOULD BE PAID TO ANY NECESSARY FLOOD WARNINGS
AND/OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

ALL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN QPF DEPICTION...WITH MAX
PRECIPITATION AXIS BISECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY. MODELS GENERALLY
SUPPORT BASIN-AVERAGE 4-6" RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT HIGHER RESOLUTION
00Z NAM INDICATES UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS WITH POINT TOTALS UP TO 8". THAT MAY BE
A BIT HIGH GIVEN APPROX 24 HR DURATION OF RAINFALL...AND HAVE
NOTED 06Z NAM HAS BACKED OFF THOSE AMTS. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST AT 4AM
GENERALLY REFLECTS A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/SREF WITH INCORPORATION OF
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...WITH AMOUNTS 4-6" WITH ISOLD 7" TOTALS.

TROPICAL NATURE OF SYSTEM AND STRONG FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BRINGS SWATH OF 2-2.25" PW VALUES NORTHWARD INTO VERMONT BY EARLY
AFTN AS SYSTEM REACHES CT BY 18Z. STRONG WIND FIELD IN 925-700MB
LAYER AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOCUSES IMPRESSIVE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AND LEFT OF THE LOW TRACK...MAXIMIZED
ACROSS WRN VT AND NERN NY BETWEEN 18-00Z. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH 2-3"/6-HRS AND HOURLY AMTS IN
EXCESS OF 0.5" AT TIMES. LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS ON EAST/NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES WILL YIELD HIGHEST LOCAL TOTALS. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE HEAD THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS
GIVEN THESE FACTORS.

ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS AREN/T PARTICULARLY MOIST...AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS 4-7" TOTALS ARE NEEDED TO GENERATE FLASH
FLOODING IN A 24 HR PERIOD CURRENTLY. NEVERTHELESS...THOSE ARE THE
AMTS FORTHCOMING WITH IRENE. THE RIVER FORECASTS FROM NERFC REFLECT
RAPID RESPONSES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER
FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS NEARLY ALL VERMONT RIVER BASINS IN ADDITION
TO THE AUSABLE BASIN IN NEW YORK. THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CAREFULLY TODAY THRU THE DAY MONDAY. ALSO...RIVER
FLOWS WILL REMAIN HIGH THRU THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIVERS GRADUALLY
RECEDE...REFRAIN FROM VENTURING NEAR OR BOATING IN DANGEROUSLY
HIGH FLOWS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 426 AM EDT SUNDAY...

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO
45 KNOT RANGE AND BECOME EVEN STRONGER TONIGHT...45 TO 55 KNOTS.
THIS WILL CREATE WAVE HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE BROAD LAKE...AS
HIGH AS 6 TO 8 FEET. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES SHARPLY.

AGAIN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. ALL
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE TO SECURE MARINE CRAFT AND OTHER
PROPERTY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE TOP 5 2-DAY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR SELECTED
SITES: (RAINFALL ENDING ON SPECIFIED DATE)

BTV
1. 5.10 11/4/1927
2. 4.91 6/14/1942
3. 4.66 10/6/1932
4. 4.49 8/11/1998
5. 4.47 6/15/1942

MPV
1. 6.72 8/5/1989
2. 4.85 10/2/2010
3. 4.51 5/27/2011
4. 4.32 9/17/1999
5. 4.47 6/15/1942

1V4
1. 6.56 11/4/1927
2. 5.90 8/12/1998
3. 5.29 9/17/1999
4. 5.18 7/19/1898
5. 4.99 7/29/1913

MMNV1
1. 10.83 9/17/1999
2. 8.13 8/5/1995
3. 6.69 10/24/1999
4. 6.59 8/17/1981
5. 6.05 8/4/1995

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ001>012-016>019.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034-
     035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029-030-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...BANACOS
MARINE...EVENSON
CLIMATE...WFO BTV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

NYZ028-031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-290845-
EASTERN CLINTON-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-
LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
433 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAJOR FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS TO IMPACT VERMONT AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NEW YORK. EXPECT 4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN TO PRODUCE MAJOR
FLOODING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS IN THE
50 TO 70 MPH RANGE WILL CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES...AND CREATE POWER OUTAGES.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NYZ029-030-290845-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
433 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS TO IMPACT VERMONT AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO
PRODUCE FLOODING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES...AND CREATE POWER OUTAGES.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NYZ026-027-087-290845-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
433 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH WINDS TO IMPACT THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. EXPECT
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND THIS WILL CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWN TREES
AND POWER LINES...AND CREATE POWER OUTAGES.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

EVENSON

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