Alert archive / Connecticut / River Flood Warnings in 2011

River Flood Warning 58, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

September 8, 2011Capitol Planning Region, Connecticut

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this river flood warning at Sep 8, 2011, 11:20 AM EDT for Capitol Planning Region, Connecticut. It took effect at Sep 9, 2011, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 8, 2011, 11:20 AM EDT (15:20 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 9, 2011, 2:00 AM EDT
Expired
Sep 8, 2011, 6:53 PM EDT
In force
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA
Flood severity
Minor

County Capitol Planning Region, CT

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Farmington River at Tariffville (TARC3). The gauge peaked at 7.82 ft at Sep 9, 2011, 4:00 PM EDT.

actionminormoderatemajor4681009/0809/09
Action stage
8 ft
Minor stage
9 ft
Moderate stage
10 ft
Major stage
11 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 01189995, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

502 
WGUS41 KBOX 081520
FLWBOX


BULLETIN...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1120 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011



...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON, MA HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND... 

  FARMINGTON RIVER AT TARIFFVILLE AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY
  PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON AFFECTING KENT AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES
...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN CONNECTICUT...
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY


HEAVY RAIN FROM THE REMNANTS OF LEE WILL CAUSE THE FARMINGTON RIVER 
TO GO INTO FLOOD AT TARIFFVILLE AND TO GO INTO MODERATE FLOOD AT 
SIMSBURY.  THE SAME EFFECTS WILL CAUSE THE PAWTUXET RIVER TO GO 
INTO FLOOD AT CRANSTON AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER TO GO INTO 
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLETOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...A FLOOD STATEMENT PROVIDING THE LATEST INFORMATION 
IN THIS FLOOD EVENT WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 8 HOURS...OR 
EARLIER IF NEEDED.

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR SWOLLEN  
RIVERS...STREAMS OR CULVERTS.  SWIFTLY MOVING WATER CAN POSE AN 
IMMINENT THREAT TO LIFE.

&&

CTC003-090320-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FL.W.0058.110909T0600Z-110909T2200Z/
/TARC3.1.ER.110909T0600Z.110909T1200Z.110909T1600Z.NO/
1120 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON, MA HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT TARIFFVILLE.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO FRIDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 10:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 9.2 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOODING OF THE LOWEST LYING AREAS ALONG THE 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT AND BELOW TARIFFVILLE IS EXPECTED.

$$

RIC003-007-090319-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FL.W.0059.110908T1800Z-110909T1912Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.110908T1800Z.110909T0000Z.110909T1312Z.NO/
1120 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON, MA HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 9.3 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.5 FEET...PARKING LOTS AND ROADS ARE FLOODED IN LOW 
  LYING AREAS OF WARWICK AND CRANSTON NEAR THE PAWTUXET RIVER. 
  IMPACTED ROADS INCLUDE RIVER STREET...PIONEER AVENUE...BELLOWS 
  STREET AND VENTURI AVENUE IN WARWICK.

$$

CTC003-090319-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0057.110908T1512Z-110910T2200Z/
/SIMC3.2.ER.110908T1442Z.110909T1200Z.110910T1600Z.NO/
1120 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY.
* FROM THIS MORNING TO SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 10:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 15.3 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
  AND RESIDENCES AFFECTED.  EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG VARIOUS 
  ROADS IN AVON AND SIMSBURY...INCLUDING RIVERSIDE ROAD IN SIMSBURY. 
  FLOODING ALSO BEGINS TO AFFECT LOW LYING SECTIONS OF BLOOMFIELD AND
  EAST GRANBY. FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
  OFFICIALS AND OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

CTC003-007-090319-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MDDC3.2.ER.110908T0041Z.110910T0300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1120 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN.
* AT 9:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL IMPACT TOWNS ALONG
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM MIDDLETOWN/PORTLAND DOWNSTREAM THROUGH 
  CHESTER AND ESSEX.  MANY ROADS NEAR THE RIVER WILL BE FLOODED.  
  SOME LOCALIZED EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED.  FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF
  YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIAL.  KNOW ALTERNATE ROUTES 
  FOR TRAVEL SHOULD ROADS IN YOUR AREA BECOME FLOODED.

$$
2 follow-up statements
526 
WGUS81 KBOX 081607
FLSBOX


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1207 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011




...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT...
 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT NORTHAMPTON AFFECTING HAMPDEN AND HAMPSHIRE 
  COUNTIES 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT THOMPSONVILLE AFFECTING HARTFORD AND HAMPDEN 
  COUNTIES 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT UNIONVILLE AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT TARIFFVILLE AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY 
  PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON AFFECTING KENT AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES 

SINCE TUESDAY HEAVY RAIN COMING FROM THE REMNANTS OF LEE HAS PRODUCED 
2 TO 4 INCHES. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING ALONG THE CONNECTICUT...
FARMINGTON...AND PAWUXET RIVERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...A FLOOD STATEMENT PROVIDING THE LATEST INFORMATION 
IN THIS FLOOD EVENT WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 8 HOURS...OR 
EARLIER IF NEEDED.

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR SWOLLEN  
RIVERS...STREAMS OR CULVERTS.  SWIFTLY MOVING WATER CAN POSE AN 
IMMINENT THREAT TO LIFE.

&&

MAC013-015-090407-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-110910T0042Z/
/NHMM3.1.ER.110908T0845Z.110909T0000Z.110909T1842Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT NORTHAMPTON.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 112.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 112.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 112.5 FEET BY 
  THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EARLY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 112.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND 
  NORTHAMPTON INCLUDING LOW LYING SECTIONS OF THE OXBOW. MINOR 
  FLOODING AFFECTS HADLEY ALONG AQUA VITAE DRIVE.  IN HATFIELD...
  FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWEST LYING SECTIONS...PRIMARILY 
  FARMING INTERESTS OUTSIDE FLOOD DIKE PROTECTION.

$$

CTC003-MAC013-090406-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-110911T0130Z/
/TMVC3.1.ER.110908T0913Z.110909T0600Z.110910T1930Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT THOMPSONVILLE.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 6.5 FEET BY AFTER
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG 
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM THE MASSACHUSETTS TOWNS OF AGAWAM AND 
  LONGMEADOW...THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONNECTICUT TOWNS OF SUFFIELD AND
  ENFIELD.

$$

CTC003-090406-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0056.110908T1600Z-110909T0520Z/
/UNVC3.1.ER.110908T1319Z.110908T1800Z.110908T2320Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT UNIONVILLE.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE TONIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 11:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.6 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS 
  MEADOWS STREET IN THE "MEADOWS" SECTION OF FARMINGTON.  SOME 
  LOWLYING AREAS ALONG ROUTE 4 MAY ALSO BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

$$

CTC003-007-090406-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MDDC3.2.ER.110908T0041Z.110910T0300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.2 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW LATE EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL IMPACT TOWNS ALONG
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM MIDDLETOWN/PORTLAND DOWNSTREAM THROUGH 
  CHESTER AND ESSEX.  MANY ROADS NEAR THE RIVER WILL BE FLOODED.  
  SOME LOCALIZED EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED.  FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF
  YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIAL.  KNOW ALTERNATE ROUTES 
  FOR TRAVEL SHOULD ROADS IN YOUR AREA BECOME FLOODED.

$$

CTC003-007-090406-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HFDC3.1.ER.110908T0218Z.110909T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.2 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...FLOODING AFFECTS SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS 
  BELOW HARTFORD THROUGH ROCKY HILL...INCLUDING SOME ROADWAYS. 
  UPSTREAM OF HARTFORD...FLOODING IS LIKELY TO AFFECT WINDSOR 
  LOCKS...EAST WINDSOR AND WINDSOR.  SHOULD LOCALIZED EVACUATIONS BE 
  NECESSARY...ACT QUICKLY.  KNOW ALTERNATE ROUTES FOR TRAVEL IN YOUR 
  LOCATION SHOULD ROADS ALONG THE RIVER BECOME FLOODED AND 
  IMPASSABLE.

$$

CTC003-090406-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-110910T2200Z/
/SIMC3.2.ER.110908T1450Z.110909T1200Z.110910T1600Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY.
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11:30 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 15.3 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY 
  EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS WITH NUMEROUS ROADS
  AND RESIDENCES AFFECTED.  EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG VARIOUS 
  ROADS IN AVON AND SIMSBURY...INCLUDING RIVERSIDE ROAD IN SIMSBURY. 
  FLOODING ALSO BEGINS TO AFFECT LOW LYING SECTIONS OF BLOOMFIELD AND
  EAST GRANBY. FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
  OFFICIALS AND OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

CTC003-090406-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0058.110909T0600Z-110909T2200Z/
/TARC3.1.ER.110909T0600Z.110909T1200Z.110909T1600Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT TARIFFVILLE.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO FRIDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 11:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 9.2 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOODING OF THE LOWEST LYING AREAS ALONG THE 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT AND BELOW TARIFFVILLE IS EXPECTED.

$$

RIC003-007-090406-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0059.110908T1800Z-110909T1912Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.110908T1800Z.110909T0000Z.110909T1312Z.NO/
1207 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON.
* UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 9.3 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.5 FEET...PARKING LOTS AND ROADS ARE FLOODED IN LOW 
  LYING AREAS OF WARWICK AND CRANSTON NEAR THE PAWTUXET RIVER. 
  IMPACTED ROADS INCLUDE RIVER STREET...PIONEER AVENUE...BELLOWS 
  STREET AND VENTURI AVENUE IN WARWICK.

$$
807 
WGUS81 KBOX 082253
FLSBOX


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011



...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CONNECTICUT...
 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT TARIFFVILLE AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY

...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MASSACHUSETTS...
 
  BLACKSTONE RIVER AT NORTHBRIDGE AFFECTING WORCESTER COUNTY 

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND...
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT NORTHAMPTON AFFECTING HAMPDEN AND HAMPSHIRE 
  COUNTIES 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT THOMPSONVILLE AFFECTING HARTFORD AND HAMPDEN 
  COUNTIES 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD AFFECTING HARTFORD AND MIDDLESEX 
  COUNTIES 
  FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY AFFECTING HARTFORD COUNTY 
  BLACKSTONE RIVER AT WOONSOCKET AFFECTING WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE 
  COUNTIES 
  PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON AFFECTING KENT AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES 


HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WAS CAUSING RISES TO FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT...FARMINGTON...BLACKSTONE AND PAWTUXET RIVERS. THE
FARMINGTON RIVER IN SIMSBURY WILL CREST LATE TONIGHT 
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
AROUND MIDDLETOWN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS AND
CREST SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. AT 630 PM...THE BLACKSTONE RIVER HAD
CRESTED IN MILBURY BUT STILL RISING IN NORTHBRIDGE. THE BLACKSTONE
SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE IN WOONSOCKET AROUND 7 OR 8 AM FRIDAY. THE
PAWTUXET RIVER IN CRANSTON SHOULD CREST NEAR FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...A FLOOD STATEMENT PROVIDING THE LATEST INFORMATION 
IN THIS FLOOD EVENT WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 8 HOURS...OR 
EARLIER IF NEEDED.

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY NEAR SWOLLEN  
RIVERS...STREAMS OR CULVERTS.  SWIFTLY MOVING WATER CAN POSE AN 
IMMINENT THREAT TO LIFE.



&&

CTC003-082323-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-110909T2200Z/
/TARC3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT TARIFFVILLE.
* AT  6:15 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH A VALUE OF 
  8.7 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOODING OF THE LOWEST LYING AREAS ALONG
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT AND BELOW TARIFFVILLE IS EXPECTED.

$$

MAC027-091053-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-110909T1424Z/
/NBRM3.1.ER.110908T1916Z.110909T0000Z.110909T0824Z.NO/
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKSTONE RIVER AT NORTHBRIDGE.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS APPROACHING 10.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 10.6 FEET 
  THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY
  TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE RIVER FROM 
  NORTHBRIDGE THROUGH UXBRIDGE AND MILLVILLE.  FLOODING WILL AFFECT 
  SOME HOMES AND BUSINESSES ALONG THE RIVER IN THESE TOWNS.

$$

CTC003-007-091053-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MDDC3.2.ER.110908T0041Z.110910T0200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLETOWN.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  5:45 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.8 FEET BY 
  TOMORROW LATE EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE 
  EVACUATION OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG RIVER ROAD IN CROMWELL AND 
  MEADOW ROAD IN PORTLAND.  FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE HARBOR PARK 
  AREA.  FLOODING INCREASES IN SURROUNDING TOWNS ALONG THE RIVER...
  FROM MIDDLETOWN AND PORTLAND TO THE RIVER MOUTH AT OLD SAYBROOK.

$$

MAC013-015-091053-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-110910T0000Z/
/NHMM3.1.ER.110908T0845Z.110908T2200Z.110909T1800Z.NO/
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT NORTHAMPTON.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 112.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 112.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 113.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHAMPTON IN THE VICINITY OF THE OXBOW AND HADLEY ALONG AQUA 
  VITAE DRIVE.  FARMING INTERESTS IN HATFIELD OUTSIDE FLOOD DIKE 
  PROTECTION WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

$$

CTC003-MAC013-091053-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-110910T2000Z/
/TMVC3.1.ER.110908T0913Z.110909T0600Z.110910T1400Z.NO/
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT THOMPSONVILLE.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  5:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 6.4 FEET BY
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 6.0 FEET...FLOODING IMPACTS LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE 
  CONNECTICUT RIVER FROM THE MASSACHUSETTS TOWNS OF AGAWAM AND 
  LONGMEADOW...THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONNECTICUT TOWNS OF SUFFIELD
  AND ENFIELD.

$$

CTC003-007-091053-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0053.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HFDC3.1.ER.110908T0218Z.110909T0300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT HARTFORD.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.0 FEET BY 
  TONIGHT THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 22.0 FEET...FLOODING AFFECTS SOME RESIDENTIAL AREAS 
  BELOW HARTFORD THROUGH ROCKY HILL...INCLUDING SOME ROADWAYS. 
  UPSTREAM OF HARTFORD...FLOODING IS LIKELY TO AFFECT WINDSOR 
  LOCKS...EAST WINDSOR AND WINDSOR.  SHOULD LOCALIZED EVACUATIONS BE 
  NECESSARY...ACT QUICKLY.  KNOW ALTERNATE ROUTES FOR TRAVEL IN YOUR 
  LOCATION SHOULD ROADS ALONG THE RIVER BECOME FLOODED AND 
  IMPASSABLE.

$$

CTC003-091052-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-110910T1300Z/
/SIMC3.1.ER.110908T1450Z.110909T0600Z.110910T0700Z.NO/
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE FARMINGTON RIVER AT SIMSBURY.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  5:31 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 14.6 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MODERATE FLOODING BEGINS WITH NUMEROUS
  ROADS AND RESIDENCES AFFECTED.  EVACUATIONS MAY BE NEEDED ALONG
  VARIOUS ROADS IN AVON AND SIMSBURY...INCLUDING RIVERSIDE ROAD IN
  SIMSBURY. FLOODING ALSO BEGINS TO AFFECT LOW LYING SECTIONS OF
  BLOOMFIELD AND EAST GRANBY. FOLLOW THE DIRECTIONS OF EMERGENCY
  MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

$$

MAC027-RIC007-091052-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0061.110909T1200Z-110909T1800Z/
/WOOR1.1.ER.110909T1200Z.110909T1200Z.110909T1200Z.NO/
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKSTONE RIVER AT WOONSOCKET.
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  5:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
  FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...FLOODING MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOWER 
  PARKING AREA TO THE ALBION MILL APARTMENTS. LOWER LYING
  RESIDENTIAL AREAS ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS LINE
  MAY BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. BUSINESSES ALONG THE RIVER
  SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

$$

RIC003-007-091052-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-110909T1500Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.110908T2303Z.110909T0000Z.110909T0900Z.NO/
653 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  5:45 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 9.1 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 9.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE 
  RIVER AS IT FLOWS THROUGH WARWICK AND CRANSTON.

$$

THOMPSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Sep 8, 10:37 AM EDT, 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 10:37 AM EDT, 43 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1037 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA FRIDAY USHERING DRIER WEATHER. MEANWHILE KATIA WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUING HIGH SURF AND SWELLS FOR
THE SHORELINES INTO FRIDAY. REMNANT LOW PRESSURE FROM ONCE TROPICAL
STORM WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THIS MAY YIELD
A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE AREA HOWEVER A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE
WEATHER THEME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MAY YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS TUE
AND/OR WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...
SEVERAL UPDATES TO ONGOING FORECAST AS PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE COME IN
HIGHER THAN FORECASTED. WESTERN MASS HAS RECEIVED THE HEAVIER
AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH 2+INCHES...WHILE A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP
HAS TREKKED ACROSS RI AND INTO EASTERN MASS WITH 2+ INCHES REPORTED
AS WELL. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DROP HIGH
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN MASS. INCREASED QPF THROUGH 00Z
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WHERE STRONGEST STORMS ARE MOVING
THROUGH. SEVERAL FLOOD PRODUCTS ARE IN PLACE.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT PRECIP IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
HAVE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE MID-LEVELS AROUND 18Z AS INDICATED IN THE NAM AND RUC.
THIS WILL HELP TREND DOWN PRECIP AS WELL.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN AS INDICATED BY LATEST OBS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK MINUS THE TWEAKS.

7 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY TOWARD MIDDAY. SATELLITE DERIVED
PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TROPICAL CONNECTION STREAMING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH PWATS AOA 2 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 200% OF
NORMAL! THIS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS WITH TIME TODAY ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
EXITING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THUS HEAVY RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY TOWARD MIDDAY.

AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CT/WEST-
CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH AS WE EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING OF
SMALL RIVERS AND STREAM ALONG WITH POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IF THE
HEAVY RAIN PERSIST LONGER THAN EXPECTED THESE ADVISORIES WILL HAVE
TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS. SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE NE FLOW...OVERCAST CONDITIONS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...

AS KATIA SLIDES SE OF NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINS ITS NE TRACK OUT TO
SEA...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL...AND MID-LVL DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF KATIA
ITSELF. ISENTROPIC FLOW BACKS OUT OF THE N...EXHIBITING A
DOWNWELLING TREND IN RESPONSE TO KATIA. LIGHT NLY SFC FLOW CONTINUES
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO THE RGN. CLOUDS
STILL IN CONTROL...PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS ALONG THE S SHORELINE WITH
THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR. MINS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S N TO S.

FRIDAY...

DRIER AIR AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IN PLACE. KATIA SLIDES NEWD PAST
NEW ENGLAND AND MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OVER NANTUCKET WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME OUTER BAND INTERACTION WITH SHOWERY WX. THE
REMAINDER OF THE RGN MAY GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT MIDDAY INTO AFTN. YET
THIS IS SHORT LIVED AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WWD WITH KATIA/S
DEPARTURE...ENHANCING THE MID-UPR LVL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
REMNANTS OF LEE OVER THE LWR OH RVR VLY RGN. THE COLLOCATION OF THE
LEFT EXIT RGN OF THE MID-UPR LVL JET STREAK WILL LEND FOR SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD FOR THE WRN
FCST RGN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SOME DEPENDENCY LIES ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.  WITH POTENTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS AND H925
TEMPS OF +18-20C...COULD SEE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL PREFERENCES AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS
PERIOD AS BOTH THE 12Z/07 GEFS AND ECENS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS.
BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW FROM ONCE TS LEE WILL
REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE WESTERLIES THIS WEEKEND AND AS A RESULT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE OH VLY TO NEW ENGLAND. WITH TIME THIS
CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HENCE PLAYING HAVOC WITH OUR WEEKEND FORECAST. THEN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON POLAR VORTEX SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO
HUDSON BAY WHICH SERVES TO KICK BROAD NE MID LEVEL TROF FINALLY OFF
THE COAST. AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING HUDSON BAY TO GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROF WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST
YIELDING A WARMING TREND HERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

DAILY DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT
AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA SAT. MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW THEN SETS UP
OVER THE AREA SAT PROVIDING LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION YIELDING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.
THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH CONFLUENT ZONE FARTHER
NORTH ALLOWING LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM REMNANT TS LEE OVER PA TO
STREAM EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM JET PREFER THE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS FROM THE 00Z
NAM/GEFS AND ECMWF. THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT GFS MOS POPS BY
INCORPORATING THE DRIER METNAM POPS THIS PERIOD.

NE SURFACE FLOW AND SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL YIELD LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES SAT BETWEEN EASTERN MA /60S/ AND
THE CT RVR VLY /70S/.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...
MID LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE LIFTS NORTH PROMOTING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VLY WILL
EJECT JET IMPULSES TOWARD THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY ARE MARGINAL SO AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THUS TRIMMED GFS MOS POPS WITH DRIER
HPC GUIDANCE. OVERALL THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND APPEARS DRY WITH JUST
A LOW PROB OF DODGING A FEW SHOWERS...HIGHEST PROBS ACRS WRN MA INTO
CT AND COASTAL RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

MON/TUE/WED...
REMNANT MID LEVEL LOW FROM ONCE TS LEE WILL FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE MON
SUPPORTING A TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER. NEW MEAN MID LEVEL TROF
DEVELOPS FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES TUE/WED. THIS
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A WARMING TREND INTO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF SHOWERS
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THIS FEATURE TUE AND WED. BEHIND THE FRONT
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MAY OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT
  MODERATE...30 PERCENT TO 60 PERCENT
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT

TODAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IFR. LLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS SFC FRNT REMAINS ADJACENT AND TO THE
S OF NEW ENGLAND. SHRA/FG EXPECTED THRU THE DAY...PERHAPS SOME
SLIGHT LIFT DURING THE MIDDAY OF MVFR PSBL ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
CT VLY TERMINALS. LGT/VRB NLY FLOW.

TONIGHT...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IFR/LIFR. COOLING OF THE VERY MOIST LLVLS WILL
CONTINUE THE VERY LOW CIGS AND REDUCTION IN VSBYS. WILL SEE
INCREASE E/NE FLOW FOR THE SE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACK...WITH
THE APPROACH OF KATIA.

FRIDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR/IFR. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO
MORNING WITH SCT SHRA...BUT DRIER AIR USHERING INTO THRU THE
MIDDAY INTO AFTN PD MAY ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO DRAMATICALLY
IMPROVE MVFR/VFR. WILL NEED TO MONITOR ACK WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF KATIA...LIKENED TO SEE MODEST GUSTY WINDS. E/NELY
FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MIDDAY PD WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING BY
16Z. OTHERWISE TERMINAL WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
LLVL MOISTURE...LOW CIGS AND DRIZZLE...COUPLED WITH E/NEWLY FLOW.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CIGS.
LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CT
AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE S/E SHORELINES...WITH INCREASING
SWELL EMANATING NORTH FROM KATIA. ANTICIPATE 8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS
ALONG THE S SHORELINE TODAY...WITH 10 TO 12 FOOT SEAS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING LINGERING INTO DUSK...15 FOOT SEAS WELL S/E OF NANTUCKET.
ALL OF THIS WITH PERIODS OF 13-15 SECONDS AND SWELLS OF 10 TO 12
FEET.

WITH REGARDS TO WINDS...WILL SEE E/NE FLOW INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY
WITH GUSTS OF UPWARDS OF 30 KTS.

THE BUILDING SEAS AND LONG PERIODS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY SURF ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE EXPOSED TO SOUTHEAST SWELL. HIGH SURF
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRI NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
CHOPPY/ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS WITH LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
FROM KATIA COMBINING WITH NE WIND WAVES BEHIND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
LIGHT NW WINDS FRI NIGHT WILL BECOME NE 15-20 KT SAT. DRY WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A LOW RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS.

SUN AND MON...
SWELLS FROM KATIA WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY SUN. LIGHT WINDS SUN AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH MOVES OFSHR MON WITH
WINDS BECOMING WSW. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASINGLY LITTLE ROOM TO SOAK NEW RAIN INTO THE GROUND IN MANY
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS AND THUS SEEING RELATIVELY RAPID
RUNOFF. BASED ON CURRENT AND PROJECTED RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO
ACTUAL OBSERVED SMALL STREAM RISES...FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEST AND CENTRAL MA AS WELL AS HARTFORD COUNTY IN
NORTHERN CT. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MA
AND RI...EXPECT STREET FLOODING IN URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN
THE BOSTON METRO AREA...WE ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE ABERJONA
RIVER WILL COME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE DUE TO ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
TROPICAL DOWNPOURS IN THAT AREA AND NOT A LOT OF ROOM TO WORK
WITH.

SEEING MANY RISES...SOME SHARP...WITH MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER FROM NORTHAMPTON TO MIDDLETOWN
WITH MIDDLETOWN PROJECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING. A WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FARMINGTON RIVER TRIBUTARY FOR UNIONVILLE
AND SIMSBURY. WE ARE HOLDING ON TARRIFILLE AT THIS TIME. THE CT
RIVER AT MONTAGUE IS FLUCTUATING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE WITH THE
MAIN ISSUE HOW MUCH LOCAL RUNOFF IS CONTRIBUTING. SO
FAR...RAINFALL UPSTREAM NORTH OF THE MA BORDER HAS NOT BEEN SO
MUCH AN ISSUE. THE NORTH NASHUA RIVER AT FITCHBURG WILL PROBABLY
COME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE AND WE MAY YET HAVE TO ISSUE A WARNING
ON THAT RELATIVELY FLASHY RIVER. OTHER RIVERS OF CONCERN INCLUDE
THE SUDBURY AT SAXONVILLE AND THE ASSABET AT MAYNARD WHICH ARE
RISING WELL ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE BOTTOMLINE IS THAT THE
RVD LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD REFLECT SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER STAGES
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE WILL PROCESS THE NEW GUIDANCE AS
QUICKLY AS WE CAN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-020-
     022>024.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>012.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ011.
RI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 8, 4:42 AM EDT, 6 hours 38 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
442 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

MAZ007-020-022>024-RIZ006>008-090845-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
442 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN RHODE
ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ002-MAZ002-003-008>011-NHZ011-090845-
HARTFORD CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-CHESHIRE NH-
442 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CTZ003-004-MAZ004>006-012>019-021-026-NHZ012-015-RIZ001>005-090845-
TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
442 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-090845-
BOSTON HARBOR-CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-
BUZZARDS BAY-RHODE ISLAND SOUND-NARRAGANSETT BAY-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
442 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS SOUTH AND EAST
OF NANTUCKET THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 8, 10:15 AM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1015 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 AM     FLOOD            STURBRIDGE              42.10N  72.06W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 20 NEAR BOYS CLUB FLOODED WITH ROAD CLOSED

0858 AM     FLOOD            BURLINGTON              41.77N  72.97W
09/08/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

            SCOVILLE STREET...WEST CHIPPENS STREET AND GEORGE
            WASHINGTON TURNPIKE FLOOD WITH ONE FOOT OF WATER

0911 AM     FLOOD            WARE                    42.25N  72.25W
09/08/2011                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 9 STARTING BELCHERTOWN TOWN LINE ONE LANE BLOCKED
            DUE TO FLOODING

0916 AM     FLOOD            BLOOMFIELD              41.82N  72.73W
09/08/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

            WALKER LANE CLOSED DUE TO 8 INCHES OF WATER

0929 AM     FLOOD            WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARMARTINE STREET AT QUINSIGAMOND STREET CARS STUCK IN
            FLOOD WATERS. OCCUPANTS RESCUED BY FIRE DEPT

0938 AM     FLOOD            CHARLTON                42.13N  71.97W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 2O FLOOD WITH SEVERAL CARS STUCK.

0952 AM     FLOOD            NORTHBRIDGE             42.15N  71.65W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            BLACKSTONE RIVER AT BANKFULL

&&

AED
Local storm report, Sep 8, 11:01 AM EDT, 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1101 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 AM     FLOOD            CRANSTON                41.77N  71.48W
09/08/2011                   PROVIDENCE         RI   NEWSPAPER

            CARS STRANDED ON OAKLAWN AND WILBUR AVENUES WITH WATER
            NEARLY UP TO CAR ROOF. FLOODING ALSO CAUSED DOWNED WIRES
            AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF TREES TO FALL ACCORDING TO
            PUBLISHED NEWS REPORT.

0858 AM     FLOOD            STURBRIDGE              42.10N  72.06W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 20 NEAR BOYS CLUB FLOODED WITH ROAD CLOSED

0858 AM     FLOOD            BURLINGTON              41.77N  72.97W
09/08/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

            SCOVILLE STREET...WEST CHIPPENS STREET AND GEORGE
            WASHINGTON TURNPIKE FLOOD WITH ONE FOOT OF WATER

0911 AM     FLOOD            WARE                    42.25N  72.25W
09/08/2011                   HAMPSHIRE          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 9 STARTING BELCHERTOWN TOWN LINE ONE LANE BLOCKED
            DUE TO FLOODING

0916 AM     FLOOD            BLOOMFIELD              41.82N  72.73W
09/08/2011                   HARTFORD           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

            WALKER LANE CLOSED DUE TO 8 INCHES OF WATER

0929 AM     FLOOD            WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARMARTINE STREET AT QUINSIGAMOND STREET CARS STUCK IN
            FLOOD WATERS. OCCUPANTS RESCUED BY FIRE DEPT

0938 AM     FLOOD            CHARLTON                42.13N  71.97W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 2O FLOOD WITH SEVERAL CARS STUCK.

0952 AM     FLOOD            NORTHBRIDGE             42.15N  71.65W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            BLACKSTONE RIVER AT BANKFULL

1020 AM     FLOOD            WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            CANTON STREET CARS STUCK IN FLOOD WATERS WITH WATERS
            APPROACHING AN APARTMENT COMPLEX

1020 AM     FLOOD            MILLBURY                42.12N  71.76W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 146 SOUTHBOUND AT THE I90 INTERCHANGE ONE FOOT OF
            WATER ON ROAD

1025 AM     FLOOD            OAKHAM                  42.35N  72.05W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 148 AT NORTH BROOKFIELD ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

1026 AM     FLOOD            WORCESTER               42.27N  71.81W
09/08/2011                   WORCESTER          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROUTE 20 AT GRAFTON STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1035 AM     FLOOD            FALL RIVER              41.71N  71.11W
09/08/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            PIERCE AND DIER STREETS WATER UP TO 18 INCHES WITH CARS
            STUCK IN FLOOD WATERS

1043 AM     FLOOD            NEW BEDFORD             41.66N  70.94W
09/08/2011                   BRISTOL            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            PURCHASE STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

AED

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 7, 10:50 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region53 hr
Sep 8, 4:43 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryBOXCapitol Planning Region4 hr
Sep 8, 8:27 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region11 hr
Sep 8, 8:31 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region8 hr
Sep 8, 8:31 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region65 hr
Sep 8, 10:51 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningBOXNortheastern Connecticut Planning Region10 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Connecticut, 2011Every river flood warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.