Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

252 
WGUS85 KBOU 131746
FLSBOU

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1146 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

COC049-141800-
/O.CON.KBOU.FA.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-110614T1800Z/
/00000.N.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAND CO-
1146 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2011

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MELTING SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON
MDT TUESDAY FOR GRAND COUNTY...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUED ALONG STREAMS IN GRAND COUNTY. THE COLORADO 
RIVER BELOW BAKER GULCH ABOVE GRAND LAKE REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY THE 
PAST WEEK. AT 1045 AM MDT...THE STAGE WAS 7.19 FEET. BANKFULL IS 7 
FEET.

THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR KREMMLING WAS SLOWLY FALLING. AT 1115 
AM MDT...THE STAGE AT 13.67 FEET. BANKFULL IS 14 FEET. THE FORECAST 
CALLS FOR THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR KREMMLING TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY 
FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

JUST OVER 70 PERCENT OF THE SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER COLORADO BASIN 
ABOVE 9000 FEET HAS MELTED OUT. THE JUNE 13TH SNOWPACK AT SNOTEL 
SITES AVERAGED 270 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

ALTHOUGH THE COLORADO RIVER IN WESTERN GRAND COUNTY IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL...OTHER MOUNTAIN STREAMS IN SOUTHEAST GRAND 
COUNTY ARE FORECAST TO HOLD STEADY OR HAVE MINOR RISES AS 
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING NEXT MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLAND NEAR 
RIVERS AND CREEKS. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG THESE STREAMS ARE 
URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. STAY CLEAR OF RIVER BANKS THAT COULD 
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE DUE TO THE HIGH STREAMFLOWS.

LAT...LON 4038 10661 4041 10649 4035 10644 4036 10627
      4032 10619 4037 10602 4035 10596 4048 10589
      4047 10581 4039 10579 4026 10565 4014 10563
      3984 10569 3980 10588 3974 10588 3968 10600
      3991 10625 3993 10663 4043 10665 4044 10665

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
345 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SHORT TERM...A DISTURBANCE IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FM LATE AFTN THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NERN CO SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSTMS.  WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILE SHOULD SEE A FEW SVR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS.  HELICITIES AND LCLS AREN'T REAL FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
HOWEVER CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO DUE TO BNDRY
INTERACTIONS.  MEANWHILE NAM HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
STORMS EVENTUALLY EVOLVING IN AN MCS BY EARLY EVENING FM AKRON
SOUTHWARD TO LIMON AND THEN EXITING THE PLAINS BEFORE 06Z.  IN THE
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LVL MOISTURE FOR
SOME HIGHER BASED AFTN CONVECTION AS WELL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL.  HIGHS THIS AFTN OVER THE
PLAINS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END OVER THE PLAINS BY 06Z.
MEANWHILE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. PROMISES
TO BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE EPISODES TO
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.  FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE STATE WITH LOW SURFACE PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO HELPING TO
DRAW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SOME OF THE PLAINS.  WHILE SOME
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...A DRYLINE WILL BE QUITE LIKELY ON BOTH
DAYS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL BE.  SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE ABLE TO DRIFT OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS BEFORE
DISSIPATING.  AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO
PROPOGATE EASTWARD AFTER THEY FORM.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE.  THIS MAY HELP SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES.  OR TUESDAY
COULD BE MORE SHOWERY IF PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STALLED
LEAVING TROFFINESS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON AVAILABILITY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...OR FROM SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW.  MENTIONING THE LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE AND THE FACT THAT THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT WARMING EFFECT
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS AFTN.  MAY SEE SCT TSTMS DVLP
BY 21Z AND AFFECT THE AIRPORT THRU 00Z BEFORE THEY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF A SVR TSTM WITH HAIL TO
1 INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH ALOGN WITH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.  WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
SSE THRU THE AFTN OUTSIDE OF TSTMS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH BY
17Z.

FOR TONIGHT TSTM THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AIRPORT AFTER
00Z WITH WINDS MAINLY SSE.  STRATUS WILL DVLP OVER THE NERN PLAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COULD AFFECT THE AIRPORT AFTER 09Z THRU 14Z IF A
WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DVLPS NR THE AIRPORT AND ALLOWS FOR WINDS TO
BECOME MORE WNW.  NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOCALLY DENSE FOG
COULD FORM AS WELL WITH VISBILITIES BLO 1/2 MILE BETWEEN 11Z AND
14Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE SNOWMELT AND THE RATE OF RUNOFF IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE UP TO A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. HIGH SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

A FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR RIVERS IN JACKSON COUNTY. FLOOD
ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR RIVERS IN GRAND COUNTY...THE LARAMIE RIVER
AND CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER AND TRIBUTARIES IN NORTHERN LARIMER COUNTY
AND THE CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER IN WESTERN WELD COUNTY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

RPK/KDRBY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1050 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

COZ030>051-121200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1050 AM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...AND WITH FORECAST CAPES REACHING 1500
TO 2000 WE EXPECT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT EAST TO THE PLAINS BY
MID AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THIS EVENING.  BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST TO THE KANSAS BORDER.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH.  ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE...LARGE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SOME HEAVY
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING EAST FROM LINCOLN TO MORGAN COUNTY
AND EASTWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.  AN UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING ON TUESDAY.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS KEEPING
RIVERS FULL WITH CONTINUED SNOWMELT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2PM TODAY.

RTG/CMG