Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NOW THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HELP REGULATE TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM
FROM REACHING NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS. NEVER THE LESS...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL STILL BE NEAR 100 WHEN FACTORING IN THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE.

MODELS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM MOVING A FRONT ACROSS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT...YESTERDAY'S SOLUTION MIGHT HAVE BEEN THE ONLY ONE
SHOWING THAT SOLUTION. THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...FRONTS LACK THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT HELPS THEM REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE
COULD STILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO COME IN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS FRONT...IT COULD SUFFER THE
SAME FATE AND NOT REACH THE AREA.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA? THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LESS OF AN INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE STORMS BEING TRIGGERED BY PEAK HEATING...THEN INCREASE
IN NUMBERS BY COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FORECAST WISE...THE NAM CONTINUES TO PERFORM THE BEST OUT OF THE
ALL THE GUIDANCE AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM IT.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
POSSIBLY AID IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY
WHAT SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE SOUTHERN SITES HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE NORTHERN
SITES. LEFT THE MENTION OF CB IN FOR BHM AND ANB AND VCTS FOR THE
OTHER 4 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ANY SITE
THAT RECEIVES RAINFALL TODAY WILL LIKELY HAVE FOG IN THE MORNING.
WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED BR FOR ALL SITES SINCE MOISTURE TOMORROW
MORNING LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE THE SAME AS THIS MORNING.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  92  68  90  66 /  10  30  50  50  30
ANNISTON    73  94  70  91  69 /  20  30  50  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  77  95  75  92  73 /  20  30  50  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  74  97  74  93  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
CALERA      74  93  71  91  70 /  20  40  50  50  30
AUBURN      72  93  71  93  71 /  20  40  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  94  71  94  70 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        70  93  69  94  68 /  30  40  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1106 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-041615-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1106 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHERE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

ALZ037-032115-
TALLAPOOSA AL-
332 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 329 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW SITE...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDER
CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ALEXANDER CITY...
  HILLABEE CREEK...
  HORSESHOE BEND...
  HORSESHOE BEND NATIONAL MILITARY PARK...
  EAGLE CREEK...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 8560 3290 8595 3309 8587 3311 8564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 355DEG 7KT 3302 8582

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