Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NOW THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HELP REGULATE TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM
FROM REACHING NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS. NEVER THE LESS...HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL STILL BE NEAR 100 WHEN FACTORING IN THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE.

MODELS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM MOVING A FRONT ACROSS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT...YESTERDAY'S SOLUTION MIGHT HAVE BEEN THE ONLY ONE
SHOWING THAT SOLUTION. THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...FRONTS LACK THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT HELPS THEM REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE
COULD STILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO COME IN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS FRONT...IT COULD SUFFER THE
SAME FATE AND NOT REACH THE AREA.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA? THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LESS OF AN INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE STORMS BEING TRIGGERED BY PEAK HEATING...THEN INCREASE
IN NUMBERS BY COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FORECAST WISE...THE NAM CONTINUES TO PERFORM THE BEST OUT OF THE
ALL THE GUIDANCE AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM IT.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL
POSSIBLY AID IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY
WHAT SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THE SOUTHERN SITES HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN THE NORTHERN
SITES. LEFT THE MENTION OF CB IN FOR BHM AND ANB AND VCTS FOR THE
OTHER 4 SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ANY SITE
THAT RECEIVES RAINFALL TODAY WILL LIKELY HAVE FOG IN THE MORNING.
WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED BR FOR ALL SITES SINCE MOISTURE TOMORROW
MORNING LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE THE SAME AS THIS MORNING.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  92  68  90  66 /  10  30  50  50  30
ANNISTON    73  94  70  91  69 /  20  30  50  50  30
BIRMINGHAM  77  95  75  92  73 /  20  30  50  50  30
TUSCALOOSA  74  97  74  93  71 /  20  40  50  50  30
CALERA      74  93  71  91  70 /  20  40  50  50  30
AUBURN      72  93  71  93  71 /  20  40  30  40  30
MONTGOMERY  72  94  71  94  70 /  30  40  30  40  40
TROY        70  93  69  94  68 /  30  40  30  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1106 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-041615-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
1106 AM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHERE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
146 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

ALZ048-050-031930-
BARBOUR AL-RUSSELL AL-
146 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RUSSELL AND NORTHEASTERN
BARBOUR COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 142 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAWKINSVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF
EUFAULA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HAWKINSVILLE...
  LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE PARK...
  BATESVILLE...
  LUGO...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 8507 3195 8508 3194 8508 3190 8511
      3203 8537 3217 8517 3210 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 018DEG 9KT 3207 8515

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
235 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

ALZ046-048-050-032015-
BARBOUR AL-BULLOCK AL-RUSSELL AL-
235 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RUSSELL...NORTHERN
BARBOUR AND EASTERN BULLOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 232 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING HILL...OR 12 MILES EAST OF MIDWAY.  THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SPRING HILL...
  COMER...
  BARBOUR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE DAM...
  BATESVILLE...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3188 8529 3202 8554 3220 8535 3210 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 032DEG 2KT 3208 8532

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
252 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

ALZ037-032030-
TALLAPOOSA AL-
252 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

AT 250 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW SITE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDER
CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEW SITE...
  HILLABEE CREEK...
  JACKSONS' GAP...
  JACKSONS GAP...
  HORSESHOE BEND...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 8562 3287 8592 3311 8591 3310 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 354DEG 4KT 3305 8579

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
316 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

ALZ050-032100-
BARBOUR AL-
316 PM CDT SUN JUL 3 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

AT 315 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR BARBOUR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE DAM...OR 8 MILES SOUTH
OF MIDWAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CLAYTON...
  MOUNT ANDREW...
  CLAYTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8565 3191 8565 3196 8561 3202 8549
      3201 8543 3205 8543 3207 8538 3202 8534
      3178 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 052DEG 12KT 3196 8548