Alert archive / Alabama / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

March 27, 2011Winston County, Alabama

NWS Birmingham, AL issued this special weather statement at Mar 27, 2011, 10:30 PM CDT for Winston County, Alabama. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 27, 2011, 10:30 PM CDT (03:30 UTC)
Expired: Mar 27, 2011, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Birmingham, AL

County Winston County, AL

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 652 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Birmingham, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 27, 6:36 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 27, 6:36 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKING A BIT OF AN UPSWING...EVER SO
SLIGHTLY...AS MODELS BEGIN TO FALL IN LINE. STILL...WITH A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...NO DOUBT THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE
THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE GET INTO A MORE STABLE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

RUC...AND TO LESSER EXTENT NAM...SEEM TO BE HANDLING AR/MS
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE TO PASSING SHORT WAVE FAIRLY
WELL...AND WILL FORM THE BASIS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOW LEVEL CAA WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TENDENCY IS TO IGNORE THE SLIGHT RISK THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
COVER THESE STORMS SINCE WE HAVE BEEN UNDER THE GUN FOR TWO
DAYS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR HAIL.
BASED TONIGHTS FORECAST FROM A BASIS OF GUIDANCE TWEAKED HEAVILY
TOWARDS RUC/NAM TRENDS.

LOOKS LIKE WE MAY FINALLY GET A BIT OF A BREAK...AS RAIN COMES TO
AN END AND WE GET A BIT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AT NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

EURO AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE SETTLED INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH PRIMARY
TRENDS AND FEATURES AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST A BIT OF A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...A COOLER AIR MASS IN BEHIND THE RAIN AS IT COMES TO AN
END THURSDAY. DON'T EXPECT CONTINUOUS RAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT YOU WILL HAVE TO PICK AND CHOOSE YOUR TIMES FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND CHECK THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BEFORE YOU
GO. WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO FAIR/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AND WE
WILL BE LOOKING DOWN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING JUST OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE...LARGELY BECAUSE MODELS ARE
HAVING A POOR TIME HANDLING TIMING OF VARIOUS SWATHS OF CONVECTION.
ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE MIDDLE OF
MISSISSIPPI AND CAME SCREAMING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. BASED ON RADAR
EXTRAPOLATION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD IMPACT BHM...EET...AND ANB
FOR (AT LEAST) THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF RAIN
AREAS...THE FORECAST DOESN'T GET MUCH EASIER AS THERE IS A PRETTY
SHARP LINE BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND LOWER IFR CEILINGS. MY GUT
FEELING...GIVEN LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...IS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
ULTIMATELY WIN OUT AND INCREASE IN AREA OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONTINUING
TO LOWER. THE LIFTING AND LIMITED CLEARING PROCESS AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE A SLOW ONE.

/61/

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 2010/2011 WINTER
SEASON. THE CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS
AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 27, 8:59 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
859 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-281130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
859 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE THREATS WILL INCLUDE PEA TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND
STRENGTH ISSUES TO OVERCOME...BUT MODELS AGREE THAT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE THREATS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NECESSARY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.

75

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 27, 9:31 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
931 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             3 SE HALEYVILLE         34.21N 87.58W
03/27/2011  E0.25 INCH       WINSTON            AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BETWEEN HALEYVILLE AND DOUBLE SPRINGS

&&

LINHARES

Special weather statement, Mar 27, 9:34 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
934 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ALZ014-015-280315-
WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
934 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WINSTON AND EASTERN WALKER
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 934 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WINSTON FREE STATE BARN TO
CARBON HILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  JASPER...
  ARLEY...
  CORDOVA...
  SUMITON...
  POPLAR SPRINGS...

&&

LAT...LON 3394 8710 3392 8708 3390 8709 3375 8703
      3366 8742 3430 8749 3431 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 252DEG 50KT 3415 8740 3383 8750

75

Special weather statement, Mar 27, 9:43 PM CDT, 47 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
943 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ALZ036-037-043-280330-
COOSA AL-ELMORE AL-TALLAPOOSA AL-
943 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALLAPOOSA...SOUTHERN COOSA AND
ELMORE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 944 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELONA TO BLUE RIDGE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ROCKFORD...
  EQUALITY...
  TALLASSEE...
  KELLYTON...
  ALEXANDER CITY...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3270 8570 3260 8569 3259 8580 3253 8580
      3242 8607 3245 8617 3244 8618 3251 8626
      3249 8628 3249 8631 3268 8642 3275 8641
      3276 8638 3283 8646 3285 8645 3311 8582
      3273 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 244DEG 34KT 3280 8634 3248 8616

75

Local storm report, Mar 27, 10:19 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1019 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     HAIL             TALLASSEE               32.54N 85.89W
03/27/2011  E0.25 INCH       ELMORE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LINHARES

Local storm report, Mar 27, 10:21 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1021 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     HAIL             TALLASSEE               32.54N 85.89W
03/27/2011  E1.00 INCH       ELMORE             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

LINHARES

Special weather statement, Mar 27, 10:30 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1030 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ALZ011-014-015-280415-
MARION AL-WALKER AL-WINSTON AL-
1030 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION...SOUTHERN
WINSTON AND NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1030 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF BRILLIANT...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WINFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LYNN...
  ARLEY...
  ELDRIDGE...
  NAUVOO...
  ASHBANK...

&&

LAT...LON 3397 8711 3391 8764 3392 8765 3392 8776
      3407 8780 3421 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 259DEG 42KT 3400 8767

75

The office that day

Everything else NWS Birmingham, AL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 27, 7:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Barbour	42 min
Mar 27, 8:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Montgomery	43 min
Mar 27, 8:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Fayette, Lamar	39 min
Mar 27, 9:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Autauga	40 min
Mar 27, 9:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Walker, Winston	41 min
Mar 27, 9:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Coosa, Elmore, Tallapoosa	47 min
Mar 27, 10:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Elmore, Lee, Macon, Tallapoosa	30 min
Mar 27, 10:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Chambers, Tallapoosa	44 min
Mar 27, 10:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Lee, Macon, Russell	39 min
Mar 27, 11:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Russell	47 min
Mar 27, 11:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Lee, Russell	29 min
Mar 27, 11:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Randolph	47 min
Mar 27, 11:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Blount	45 min
Mar 27, 11:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Etowah	47 min
Mar 28, 12:03 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Marion	42 min
Mar 28, 12:31 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Tuscaloosa	44 min
Mar 28, 12:50 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Marion, Winston	40 min
Mar 28, 12:57 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Bibb, Jefferson, Shelby, Tuscaloosa	48 min
Mar 28, 1:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Jefferson, Shelby, Tuscaloosa	47 min
Mar 28, 1:32 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Marion, Winston	43 min
Mar 28, 1:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Cleburne	47 min
Mar 28, 1:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Shelby	28 min
Mar 28, 1:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Blount, Etowah	44 min
Mar 28, 1:50 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Calhoun, Jefferson, St. Clair, Shelby, Talladega	40 min
Mar 28, 2:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Marion	50 min
Mar 28, 2:25 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Calhoun, Cleburne	31 min
Mar 28, 2:42 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BMX	Calhoun, Cleburne	14 min
Mar 28, 2:47 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Clay	43 min
Mar 28, 3:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Jefferson, St. Clair	44 min
Mar 28, 3:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Marshall	39 min
Mar 28, 3:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Etowah	51 min
Mar 28, 3:25 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BMX	Cleburne	20 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Alabama, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.