Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TAKING A BIT OF AN UPSWING...EVER SO
SLIGHTLY...AS MODELS BEGIN TO FALL IN LINE. STILL...WITH A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE...NO DOUBT THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE
THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL WE GET INTO A MORE STABLE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

RUC...AND TO LESSER EXTENT NAM...SEEM TO BE HANDLING AR/MS
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE TO PASSING SHORT WAVE FAIRLY
WELL...AND WILL FORM THE BASIS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOW LEVEL CAA WITH GOOD OVERRUNNING AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TENDENCY IS TO IGNORE THE SLIGHT RISK THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
COVER THESE STORMS SINCE WE HAVE BEEN UNDER THE GUN FOR TWO
DAYS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR HAIL.
BASED TONIGHTS FORECAST FROM A BASIS OF GUIDANCE TWEAKED HEAVILY
TOWARDS RUC/NAM TRENDS.

LOOKS LIKE WE MAY FINALLY GET A BIT OF A BREAK...AS RAIN COMES TO
AN END AND WE GET A BIT OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE RIGHT AT NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

EURO AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE SETTLED INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH PRIMARY
TRENDS AND FEATURES AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE. AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST A BIT OF A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...BUT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A
FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...A COOLER AIR MASS IN BEHIND THE RAIN AS IT COMES TO AN
END THURSDAY. DON'T EXPECT CONTINUOUS RAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT YOU WILL HAVE TO PICK AND CHOOSE YOUR TIMES FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND CHECK THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BEFORE YOU
GO. WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO FAIR/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AND WE
WILL BE LOOKING DOWN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING JUST OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE...LARGELY BECAUSE MODELS ARE
HAVING A POOR TIME HANDLING TIMING OF VARIOUS SWATHS OF CONVECTION.
ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE MIDDLE OF
MISSISSIPPI AND CAME SCREAMING INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA. BASED ON RADAR
EXTRAPOLATION...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD IMPACT BHM...EET...AND ANB
FOR (AT LEAST) THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF RAIN
AREAS...THE FORECAST DOESN'T GET MUCH EASIER AS THERE IS A PRETTY
SHARP LINE BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND LOWER IFR CEILINGS. MY GUT
FEELING...GIVEN LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...IS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
ULTIMATELY WIN OUT AND INCREASE IN AREA OVERNIGHT...WHILE CONTINUING
TO LOWER. THE LIFTING AND LIMITED CLEARING PROCESS AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE A SLOW ONE.

/61/

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 2010/2011 WINTER
SEASON. THE CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS
AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
811 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     HAIL             4 WSW VANDIVER          33.45N 86.58W
03/26/2011  E0.50 INCH       SHELBY             AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

LINHARES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
814 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             1 NE TRUSSVILLE         33.65N 86.58W
03/26/2011  E0.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

LINHARES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
832 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

ALZ042-044-280215-
LOWNDES AL-MONTGOMERY AL-
832 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

AT 832 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF FORT DEPOSIT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MEADVILLE...
  LOGAN...
  DAVENPORT...
  PINTLALA...
  STRATA...

&&

LAT...LON 3213 8670 3230 8618 3206 8610 3202 8630
      3205 8631 3205 8639 3200 8640 3196 8662
      3196 8664
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 253DEG 20KT 3207 8656

75