Severe Thunderstorm Warning 420, NWS Birmingham, AL

137 
WWUS54 KBMX 222027
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
227 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

ALC107-222037-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0420.000000T0000Z-111122T2100Z/
PICKENS AL-
227 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3303 8814 3304 8809 3305 8807 3304 8804
      3307 8802 3308 8797 3311 8794 3314 8759
      3232 8780 3231 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 258DEG 33KT 3299 8795 3245 8811

$$

ALC063-065-091-119-125-222100-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0420.000000T0000Z-111122T2100Z/
GREENE AL-HALE AL-MARENGO AL-SUMTER AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
227 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
TUSCALOOSA...EASTERN SUMTER...NORTHWESTERN MARENGO...WESTERN HALE AND
GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CST...

AT 227 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM UNION TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COATOPA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EUTAW...DEMOPOLIS...COATOPA...ALLISON...MANTUA...UNION...
  TISHABEE...DUG HILL...THORNHILL AND KNOXVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 17 THROUGH 62...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3303 8814 3304 8809 3305 8807 3304 8804
      3307 8802 3308 8797 3311 8794 3314 8759
      3232 8780 3231 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 258DEG 33KT 3299 8795 3245 8811

$$

19

660 
WWUS54 KBMX 222040
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
240 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

ALC063-065-091-119-125-222100-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0420.000000T0000Z-111122T2100Z/
GREENE AL-HALE AL-MARENGO AL-SUMTER AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
240 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
TUSCALOOSA...SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER...NORTHWESTERN MARENGO...WESTERN
HALE AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CST...

AT 240 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM EUTAW TO 7 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EUTAW...DEMOPOLIS...WALDEN QUARTERS...FORKLAND...JEFFERSON...
  KNOXVILLE...PIN HOOK...WEDGEWORTH...EVANSVILLE AND AKRON.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 32 THROUGH 62...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3302 8802 3311 8794 3314 8759 3232 8780
      3231 8815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 270DEG 34KT 3288 8789 3238 8798

$$

19

122 
WWUS54 KBMX 222050
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
250 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

ALC119-222100-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0420.000000T0000Z-111122T2100Z/
SUMTER AL-
250 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3244 8801 3247 8796 3253 8790 3252 8784
      3260 8790 3261 8788 3261 8787 3259 8786
      3261 8784 3263 8792 3261 8799 3298 8793
      3314 8759 3232 8780 3232 8794 3237 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 270DEG 34KT 3288 8778 3238 8787

$$

ALC063-065-091-125-222100-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0420.000000T0000Z-111122T2100Z/
GREENE AL-HALE AL-MARENGO AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
250 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
TUSCALOOSA...NORTHWESTERN MARENGO...WESTERN HALE AND EASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CST...

AT 250 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM AKRON TO JEFFERSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEDGEWORTH...EVANSVILLE...AKRON...DUFFYS BEND...ARCOLA...
  SAWYERVILLE...FOSTERS...MOUNDVILLE AIRPORT AND MOUND STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3244 8801 3247 8796 3253 8790 3252 8784
      3260 8790 3261 8788 3261 8787 3259 8786
      3261 8784 3263 8792 3261 8799 3298 8793
      3314 8759 3232 8780 3232 8794 3237 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 270DEG 34KT 3288 8778 3238 8787

$$

19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1148 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALABAMA'S NORTH AND WEST
APPEARED TO BE LOCATED WELL AHEAD OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE
PORTION THAT WAS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LOOKED RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
MORNING...AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS ON SPC'S PAGE SUGGESTED THAT THIS
CONVECTION WAS STARVED OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. FAIRLY WARM
CLOUD TOPS AND RELATIVE LACK OF LIGHTNING ALSO SUPPORTS THE IDEA
THAT THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA STORMS LACK
THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS -- AT LEAST
IN THE NEAR TERM. THOSE SHOWERS/AND STORMS WILL LIKELY JUST END UP
BECOMING THE NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE EVENTUAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA. MEANING...ONCE THE LEADING EDGE OF THAT RAIN GOES
THROUGH AN AREA...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (HOWEVER MARGINAL) WOULD
MOST LIKELY END.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI HAVE DEW
POINTS OF 65 PLUS...WITH SBCAPES (FROM THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
PAGE) INCHING ABOVE 500 J/KG. IT IS THIS AREA THAT I FEEL WE NEED TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THEIR
WOULD MOST LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEING FARTHER SOUTH...
THESE STORMS (IF THEY DEVELOP) WOULD BE A BIT MORE SEPARATED FROM
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND THE SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
BUT IF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT...THEN THIS COULD TIP THE SCALES ON THE SHEAR...
ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT FROM I-59 EASTWARD...THE
TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS THINKING.

ALL IN ALL...WE COULD PROBABLY CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS "MARGINAL" AT THIS POINT. BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING THAT COULD EVOLVE INTO SOMETHING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL IF
A COUPLE OF KEY THINGS WERE TO HAPPEN (ADDED MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WHICH
WOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR). OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THINGS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION IS ALREADY PUSHING
THRU THE NWRN COUNTIES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
AND EVNG SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SSW TODAY AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. STRONGER GUSTS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF STORMS AS WELL AS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS FOR CIGS...THEY HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO POSSIBLY
IFR THIS EVNG AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK MOVES IN BEHIND
THE EXITING COLD FRONT.

LOOK FOR CONTINUOUS UPDATES TO TIMING OF HEAVIEST PRECIP/STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. CHANGES TO CIG FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AS WELL AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-231045-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1220 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF A
CULLMAN...CLANTON...SELMA LINE THROUGH 4 PM. THIS LINE OF STORMS
WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ON ITS LEADING EDGE.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT... BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS
EARLY AS 2 PM.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE
OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65 UNTIL 6 PM...AND FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-65 BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

STEFKOVICH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
208 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

ALZ013-022-023-222045-
FAYETTE AL-PICKENS AL-TUSCALOOSA AL-
208 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TUSCALOOSA...
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
CST...

AT 209 PM CST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR GORDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK...
  LAKE TUSCALOOSA BINION CREEK LANDING...
  SAMANTHA...
  BANKHEAD LOCK AND DAM...
  BROWNVILLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3366 8742 3360 8742 3359 8732 3352 8732
      3351 8726 3350 8727 3350 8729 3348 8729
      3349 8733 3346 8734 3344 8729 3340 8725
      3324 8789 3348 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 243DEG 49KT 3337 8782

19