Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS Birmingham, AL

974 
WWUS54 KBMX 221938
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
138 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

ALC063-107-119-222015-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0419.000000T0000Z-111122T2015Z/
GREENE AL-PICKENS AL-SUMTER AL-
138 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER...
PICKENS AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...

AT 138 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES WEST OF PICKENSVILLE TO 18 MILES WEST OF CUBA...MOVING 
EAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE 
IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PICKENSVILLE...ALICEVILLE...CARROLLTON...CUBA...REFORM...YORK...
  LIVINGSTON...GORDO...MEMPHIS AND PANOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3339 8830 3347 8784 3320 8785 3249 8799
      3242 8804 3231 8803 3230 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 262DEG 39KT 3322 8832 3243 8862

$$

19

644 
WWUS54 KBMX 221950
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
150 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

ALC063-107-119-222015-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0419.000000T0000Z-111122T2015Z/
GREENE AL-PICKENS AL-SUMTER AL-
150 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER...
PICKENS AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...

AT 150 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM PICKENSVILLE TO 8 MILES WEST OF CUBA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. 
THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE IN EAST CENTRAL 
MISSISSIPPI.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALICEVILLE...CARROLLTON...CUBA...YORK...REFORM...LIVINGSTON...
  GORDO...WEST UNION...EMELLE AND BOYD.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 40...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3339 8830 3347 8784 3320 8785 3249 8799
      3242 8804 3231 8803 3230 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 262DEG 39KT 3323 8816 3245 8847

$$

19

482 
WWUS54 KBMX 222000
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
200 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

ALC063-107-119-222015-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0419.000000T0000Z-111122T2015Z/
GREENE AL-PICKENS AL-SUMTER AL-
200 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER...
PICKENS AND WESTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...

AT 200 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM CARROLLTON TO CUBA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A 
HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CUBA...YORK...REFORM...LIVINGSTON...GORDO...BOYD...NEW WEST
  GREENE...GAINESVILLE...KINTERBISH AND WEST GREENE.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 40...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3322 8831 3343 8806 3347 8784 3320 8785
      3249 8799 3242 8804 3231 8803 3230 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 262DEG 39KT 3321 8807 3244 8839

$$

19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1148 AM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALABAMA'S NORTH AND WEST
APPEARED TO BE LOCATED WELL AHEAD OF ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE
PORTION THAT WAS IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LOOKED RELATIVELY WEAK THIS
MORNING...AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS ON SPC'S PAGE SUGGESTED THAT THIS
CONVECTION WAS STARVED OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. FAIRLY WARM
CLOUD TOPS AND RELATIVE LACK OF LIGHTNING ALSO SUPPORTS THE IDEA
THAT THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA STORMS LACK
THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS -- AT LEAST
IN THE NEAR TERM. THOSE SHOWERS/AND STORMS WILL LIKELY JUST END UP
BECOMING THE NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE EVENTUAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA. MEANING...ONCE THE LEADING EDGE OF THAT RAIN GOES
THROUGH AN AREA...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (HOWEVER MARGINAL) WOULD
MOST LIKELY END.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSISSIPPI HAVE DEW
POINTS OF 65 PLUS...WITH SBCAPES (FROM THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
PAGE) INCHING ABOVE 500 J/KG. IT IS THIS AREA THAT I FEEL WE NEED TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THEIR
WOULD MOST LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEING FARTHER SOUTH...
THESE STORMS (IF THEY DEVELOP) WOULD BE A BIT MORE SEPARATED FROM
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND THE SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
BUT IF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT...THEN THIS COULD TIP THE SCALES ON THE SHEAR...
ALLOWING FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION.

A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT FROM I-59 EASTWARD...THE
TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM
THE PREVIOUS THINKING.

ALL IN ALL...WE COULD PROBABLY CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZE THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS "MARGINAL" AT THIS POINT. BUT IT IS CERTAINLY
SOMETHING THAT COULD EVOLVE INTO SOMETHING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL IF
A COUPLE OF KEY THINGS WERE TO HAPPEN (ADDED MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WHICH
WOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SHEAR). OBVIOUSLY...WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH THINGS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND PUSH THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION IS ALREADY PUSHING
THRU THE NWRN COUNTIES. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...WITH SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN
AND EVNG SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SSW TODAY AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. STRONGER GUSTS ARE
LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF STORMS AS WELL AS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS FOR CIGS...THEY HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. EXPECT
GENERALLY IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO POSSIBLY
IFR THIS EVNG AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK MOVES IN BEHIND
THE EXITING COLD FRONT.

LOOK FOR CONTINUOUS UPDATES TO TIMING OF HEAVIEST PRECIP/STORMS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. CHANGES TO CIG FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AS WELL AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

19

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1220 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-231045-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1220 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF A
CULLMAN...CLANTON...SELMA LINE THROUGH 4 PM. THIS LINE OF STORMS
WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ON ITS LEADING EDGE.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT... BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA AS
EARLY AS 2 PM.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE
OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65 UNTIL 6 PM...AND FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-65 BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

STEFKOVICH