Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Birmingham, AL

080 
WWUS54 KBMX 211929
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
229 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

ALC119-211945-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0186.000000T0000Z-110421T1945Z/
SUMTER AL-
229 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL SUMTER
COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 228 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
YORK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 
WIND DAMAGE IN MISSISSIPPI.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YORK...LIVINGSTON...THE UNIVERSITY OF WEST ALABAMA...BLUFFPORT...
  LILITA AND BELLAMY.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 17...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3260 8840 3265 8810 3238 8808 3237 8842
      3242 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 257DEG 24KT 3250 8832

$$

19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
108 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING
WITH MOST OF THE ACTION TO THE WEST OF THE STATE. LESS INSTABILITY
ACROSS AREA TODAY DUE TO LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP SEVERE STORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON...
CLOSER TO LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WHICH RUNS FROM NEAR VICKSBURG
MISSISSIPPI TO MOBILE ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THETA-E AXIS... AND STAY
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT NORTHERN EDGE OF STORMS
COULD AFFECT SUMTER TO DALLAS COUNTIES. THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE
RAIN SHIELD DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...AND
RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO WEST ALABAMA. BASED ON PROJECTED PATH
OF STRONGER STORMS...REMOVED MOST OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
DRAMATICALLY DROP OFF ONCE YOU GET SOUTH OF I-20... AND FELT THERE
WAS NOT MUCH OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...AND UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ONLY INCLUDE WESTERN
COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM...
AND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN ONE-
THIRD OF ALABAMA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT
COOLER CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-20.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE
ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF ANY TAF SITES WITH THE ONLY
WEATHER CONCERN BEING THE SHIELD OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE LINE.
SOME OF THOSE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND POSSIBLY AFFECT TCL AND
BHM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BESIDES THE RAIN AREAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WITH DECENT ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SUPPORT A STRATUS DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LIFT IS A LITTLE BIT WEAKER IN THE
EAST BUT AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. IF CLOUDS DO NOT DEVELOP THEN FOG COULD BECOME AN
ISSUE. SOME GRADUAL LIFTING TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE MORE VARIABLE WITH
A PREDOMINATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER
DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR
ACCURACY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: FAYETTE...LAMAR...MARION...PICKENS...TUSCALOOSA...
WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

58/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1057 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-221557-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1057 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ALICEVILLE...TO MARION...TO
SELMA LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING
FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ALICEVILLE...TO TUSCALOOSA
TO CORDOVA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR TUESDAY...BUT HAS INCREASED FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
945 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW EDWARDSVILLE      33.77N 85.56W
04/21/2011                   CLEBURNE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 61 NEAR CULLMAN LAKE.

&&

GGOGGINS