Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
830 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS EFFECTIVE FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA TO
NEAR AUBURN THIS EVENING. NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS
STILL RATHER STABLE DUE TO THE RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. EVEN A BUBBLE HIGH STILL EXIST
NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM FROM THIS PREVIOUS ACTIVITY. BACK WEST...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW APPEARS SOUTHWEST OF GTR THIS EVENING...A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OF AN ATMOSPHERIC SPIN EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON SEVERAL STORMS
IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BEING
REPORTED AND SOME WIND DAMAGE. THE THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE
SUPERCELLS ARE BECOMING MORE LINEARLY ORIENTED AND WITH EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES 45+...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE
ORGANIZING.

SO WHAT TO EXPECT...THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL. BUT STORMS THAT FORM SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AND MOVE NEAR IT WILL HAVE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...MAINLY
FOR AREAS FROM TUSCALOOSA TO ALICEVILE NORTHWARD. IT APPEARS THAT A
MORE WIND AND HAIL THREAT IS DEVELOPING WITH THE ORGANIZING
LINE...AS VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
EVEN IF ELEVATED...ELEVATED SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO UNSTABLE.
ADDITIONALLY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A GREATER THREAT HERE
SHORTLY AS THESE STORMS MOVE IN.  GREATEST THREAT AREA THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WILL MONITOR INSTABILITY AS THE WATCH
MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD A FEW COUNTIES SHORTLY.

75/LINHARES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011/.

COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SLIDE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAT WHERE
IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. CONDITIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 STILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
HAS KEPT MOST STORMS IN CHECK AS IT IS HELPING THE CAP HOLD IN
PLACE.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE THREAT THEN SHIFTS TO
MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
COULD SEE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES BETWEEN NOW AND TOMORROW
MORNING RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EACH WAVE COULD
ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH THE END RESULT BEING TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS OR STORMS THAT KEEP MOVING ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.
CURRENTLY THINKING THAT AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT BEST AREA FOR THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY ENDING
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP JUST
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS A PATTERN TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST UPCOMING AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
ALOFT AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTERACT TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
STALLED NEAR THE I-20 TAF LOCATIONS BUT OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD AND NEW THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS BEGUN BETWEEN MGM
AND TOI. BOTTOM LINE...THE NEXT 6 HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
PRESENCE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. VC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT ANY TIME WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND VARIABILITY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

NONE OF THE 12Z MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
WEATHER...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE STABLE
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS AND IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN A SLOW LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED
TO THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER
DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR
ACCURACY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     57  79  58  83  57 /  70  60  50  20  10
ANNISTON    62  83  61  84  58 /  70  60  50  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  80  64  86  63 /  70  60  40  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  62  83  61  87  62 /  70  30  20  10  10
CALERA      64  81  62  85  60 /  70  40  30  10  10
AUBURN      64  85  63  84  61 /  50  40  40  10  10
MONTGOMERY  65  85  62  87  59 /  50  30  20  10  10
TROY        64  86  61  85  58 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BIBB...BLOUNT...CALHOUN...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...
CLEBURNE...COOSA...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...MARION...PERRY...PICKENS...RANDOLPH...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...
WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
811 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-211130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
811 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ONEONTA TO TALLADEGA TO
ALEXANDER CITY. THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT IS LOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA...SO SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. OVERALL TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES ONLY...AND NOT DUE TO ANY LACK OF OVERALL
FORCING AND INSTABILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1100 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE BLACKWATER CREEK   33.95N 87.21W
04/20/2011                   WALKER             AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN THE COMMUNITIES OF CURRY AND THATCH.

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1107 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORDOVA                 33.76N 87.19W
04/20/2011                   WALKER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN AND AROUND CORDOVA.

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1112 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW BLOUNT SPRINGS     33.89N 86.85W
04/20/2011                   BLOUNT             AL   PUBLIC

            TREE BLOCKING HWY 31 JUST OF I65 AT EXIT 287.

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1115 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE BIRMINGHAM        33.51N 86.75W
04/20/2011                   JEFFERSON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON CHERRY ST.

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1116 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLUFF                   33.82N 87.91W
04/20/2011                   FAYETTE            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1118 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLUFF                   33.82N 87.91W
04/20/2011                   FAYETTE            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF COUNTY.

&&

JT