River Flood Warning 19, NWS Birmingham, AL

608 
WGUS84 KBMX 160105
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
805 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK
AND DAM...GAINESVILLE LOCK AND DAM...AND DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM...

.HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE TOMBIGBEE DRAINAGE
BASIN IS PRODUCING RISES ON THE RIVER...AND A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY SATURDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-161305-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0019.110416T1138Z-110420T1923Z/
/AVLA1.1.ER.110416T1138Z.110418T0000Z.110420T0723Z.NO/
805 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 114.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING  AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 130.1 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC063-065-091-119-161305-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0020.110417T2046Z-110421T0129Z/
/GNSA1.1.ER.110417T2046Z.110419T0000Z.110420T1329Z.NO/
805 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT GAINESVILLE LOCK AND DAM.
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING 
  IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 81.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 101.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 104.3 FEET BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

ALC063-065-091-119-161305-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0021.110418T2330Z-000000T0000Z/
/DLDA1.1.ER.110418T2330Z.110420T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
805 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM.
* FROM MONDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  4:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 39.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 68.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 71.3 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


$$

675 
WGUS84 KBMX 161536
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1036 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT 
GAINESVILLE LOCK AND DAM...
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK
AND DAM...

.HEAVY RAINFALL OF  OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER THE THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER
AT GAINESVILLE LOCK AND DAM AND A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-170336-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110420T1200Z/
/AVLA1.1.ER.110416T1541Z.110418T0000Z.110420T0000Z.NO/
1036 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 120.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 128.1 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING . THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 128 FEET...CATTLE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE MOVED TO 
  HIGHER GROUND. FLOODING OF SOME CABINS AND CAMPS ALONG THE RIVER 
  CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$

ALC063-065-091-119-161606-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-110421T0129Z/
/GNSA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1036 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT GAINESVILLE LOCK AND DAM.
* AT  9:00 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 87.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 101 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  FEET EARLY 
  TUESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 101 FEET...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AGRICULTURAL AND 
  WOODED LANDS IN THE AREA OCCURS.

$$

ALC063-065-091-119-161606-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-110416T1536Z/
/DLDA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1036 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT DEMOPOLIS LOCK AND DAM.
* AT  8:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 45.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 68 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  FEET EARLY 
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 68 FEET...FLOODING OF LOWLANDS IN THE AREA OCCURS AND
  CATTLE SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$

935 
WGUS84 KBMX 170204
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
904 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK
AND DAM...

.HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL FRIDAY OVER THE TOMBIGBEE BASIN HAS CREATED
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER NEAR BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY SATURDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-171404-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110420T0846Z/
/AVLA1.1.ER.110416T1629Z.110418T0600Z.110419T2046Z.NO/
904 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 123.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 127.2 FEET BY 
  EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 128.0 FEET...CATTLE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE MOVED TO 
  HIGHER GROUND. FLOODING OF SOME CABINS AND CAMPS ALONG THE RIVER 
  CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$

949 
WGUS84 KBMX 171403
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
903 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK
AND DAM...

.HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL FRIDAY OVER THE TOMBIGBEE BASIN HAS CREATED
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER NEAR BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-180203-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110420T0834Z/
/AVLA1.1.ER.110416T1629Z.110418T0600Z.110419T2034Z.NO/
903 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 122.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 123.8 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW . THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 128.0 FEET...CATTLE IN THE AREA SHOULD BE MOVED TO 
  HIGHER GROUND. FLOODING OF SOME CABINS AND CAMPS ALONG THE RIVER 
  CAN BE EXPECTED.

$$

737 
WGUS84 KBMX 171931
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
231 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK
AND DAM...

.HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL ON FRIDAY OVER THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER HAS 
CAUSED MINOR FLOODING AT THE BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-180731-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110420T0600Z/
/AVLA1.1.ER.110416T1629Z.110417T0800Z.110419T1800Z.NO/
231 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 11 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 122.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 122.2 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW . THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 122.0 FEET...CATTLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF SOUTHERN 
  PICKENS COUNTY SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND. CATTLE ARE CUTOFF 
  IN LOWLANDS OF SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY AT STAGES ABOVE 122 FEET.

$$

486 
WGUS84 KBMX 180208
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
908 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK
AND DAM...

.RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT BEVILL THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-181408-
/O.CON.KBMX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110420T0600Z/
/AVLA1.1.ER.110416T1629Z.110417T0800Z.110419T1800Z.NO/
908 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 121.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE TO NEAR 122.2 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 122 FEET...CATTLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF SOUTHERN 
  PICKENS COUNTY SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND. CATTLE ARE CUTOFF 
  IN LOWLANDS OF SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY AT STAGES ABOVE 122 FEET.

$$

621 
WGUS84 KBMX 181431
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
931 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK
AND DAM...

.A SLOW RISE IN THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY TUESDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF 
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-190231-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110420T0000Z/
/AVLA1.1.ER.110416T1629Z.110417T0800Z.110419T1200Z.NO/
931 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 122.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 122.9 FEET BY 
  THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW 
  MORNING .
* IMPACT...AT 122 FEET...CATTLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF SOUTHERN 
  PICKENS COUNTY SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND. CATTLE ARE CUTOFF 
  IN LOWLANDS OF SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY AT STAGES ABOVE 122 FEET.

$$

149 
WGUS84 KBMX 191416
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
916 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL 
LOCK AND DAM...

.THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD 
STAGE AND THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS.  TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. 

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.

&&

ALC063-065-091-107-119-191446-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-110420T0000Z/
/AVLA1.1.ER.110416T1629Z.110417T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
916 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER AT BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.
* AT  7:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 118.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 122 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FALLING SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
             FEW DAYS.
* IMPACT...AT 122.0 FEET...CATTLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS OF SOUTHERN 
  PICKENS COUNTY SHOULD BE MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND. CATTLE ARE CUTOFF 
  IN LOWLANDS OF SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY AT STAGES ABOVE 122 FEET.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE LAST WEEK ALL EYES HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ON TODAY. THEREFORE
WILL SPEND MOST OF MY TIME DISCUSSING THE SHORT-TERM. THINGS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO UNFOLD AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NE
ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SPARKING SHOWER/TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY RISEN
INTO THE LOW 60S IN THE FAR SW AROUND DEMOPOLIS. EXPECT LOW TO MID
60S DEW POINTS TO SURGE NWD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA THRU THE
DAY AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER N AND THE WARM SECTOR INCREASES
IN SIZE.

OCCLUDED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL KS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TMRW MRNG. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL MODES OF SVR WX
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTN/EVNG. SPC HAS INCREASED THE SIZE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA
TO INCLUDE ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL AL. THEREFORE A SVR WX OUTBREAK IS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED IN REGARDS TO SVR THREATS...TIMING AND
CONVECTIVE MODES. STILL ANTICIPATE DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF LA/MS BY LATE MRNG WHERE BEST INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOCATED
AND THEN TRACK EWD INTO W AL...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN W AL AS WELL. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL PRESENT THE
GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES AS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE >50 KTS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS. SCATTERED
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTN HRS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. A
SQUALL LINE WILL THEN PUSH EWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVNG HRS
AND WILL LIKELY NOT EXIT THE SE COUNTIES UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE AS LATE AS 09Z. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED MANY TIMES
BEFORE...THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT PRESENT JUST A SINGLE ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER LIKE THE LAST EVENT WE DEALT WITH ON MONDAY. RATHER WE WILL
LIKELY BE FACED WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FIRST AND THEN A SQUALL LINE. ANOTHER IMPORTANT
POINT TO NOTE...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN HIT HARD...IS THAT ALL MODES OF
SVR WX WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FLOODING WILL ALL PRESENT A THREAT.
PLEASE MAKE SURE THAT YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIOS ARE TURNED ON AND
WORKING PROPERLY IN ORDER FOR THEM TO RECEIVE WATCHES/WARNINGS THAT
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

EXTENSIVE ONGOING SQUALL LINE CROSSING THE MS RIVER SHOULD TEND TO
BREAK UP THRU THE MRNG HRS AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
COLD POOL BEHIND IT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AS THE COLD POOL COULD PERHAPS ADD ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG.

DID NOT SPEND MUCH TIME TWEAKING LONG-TERM GRIDS AS THE MAIN FOCUS
WAS ON TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT EXITS SAT MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND THINGS WILL COOL OFF SLIGHTLY. TEMPS
WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON SAT AND THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THRU MID
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY MON AS SRLY
SFC FLOW PICKS BACK UP AND INCREASES MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LEVELS.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SWD AND
HANGS UP NORTH OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE TOO GREAT AND
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
IN THE EXTENDED.

19

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF TCL AND BHM AND LOOK FOR THESE TO GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WILL SHOW TREND OF THIS
ACTIVITY WORKING SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREA.  BIG
CONCERN IS SEVERE THREAT WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT.  WILL USE TEMPO GROUPS TO SHOW ESTIMATED WINDOW OF BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES...BUT POSSIBILITY
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EXIST
AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE TSRA DEPARTING
EASTERN SECTIONS BY AROUND 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIIONS PREVAILING AFTER
THAT TIME.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-161130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
600 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 10 AM TODAY AND 3 AM TONIGHT.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
MAY COVER A RATHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF TIME AND EXTEND TO ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEGINNING IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS 10 AM TODAY AND
LASTING UNTIL 2 OR 3 AM TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST. ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY SPAWN STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT TIMING APPEARS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...DO NOT FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR HOUR...BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVITY AT ANY TIME. REVIEW YOUR PREPAREDNESS ACTION PLANS AND
BE READY TO TAKE ACTION WHEN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. STAY
TUNED TO FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY
BE 25 MPH OR HIGHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AND
HAM RADIO OPERATORS IS EXPECTED TODAY.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 PM     HAIL             CLAY                    33.70N 86.60W
04/15/2011  E0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG HAPPEY HOLLOW ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
125 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW UNIONTOWN          32.39N 87.56W
04/15/2011                   MARENGO            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWW 3 WSW OF FREETOW. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
126 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW UNIONTOWN          32.39N 87.56W
04/15/2011                   MARENGO            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWW 3 WSW OF FREETOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
139 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
04/15/2011                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ABERDEEN ROAD IN THREE LOCATIONS CLOSING ROAD.
            2 OTHER ROADS IN THE AREA ALSO CLOSED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
142 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HAIL             2 SSE BIRMINGHAM        33.50N 86.79W
04/15/2011  E0.88 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME SIZED HAIL IN RED MOUNTIAN.

1102 AM     HAIL             BIRMINGHAM              33.53N 86.80W
04/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN DOWNTOWN BIRMINGHAM.

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HIGHTOGY                33.69N 88.09W
04/15/2011                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FEW TREES DOWN FROM FERN BANK TO HIGHTOGY.

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HIGHTOGY                33.69N 88.09W
04/15/2011                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FEW TREES DOWN FROM FERN BANK TO HIGHTOGY.

1234 PM     HAIL             2 N BLOUNTSVILLE        34.12N 86.58W
04/15/2011  E1.00 INCH       BLOUNT             AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG HWY 49.

1235 PM     TORNADO          NANAFALIA               32.11N 87.99W
04/15/2011                   MARENGO            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN. TORNADO SEEN ON THE GROUND BY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT.

1243 PM     HAIL             CLAY                    33.70N 86.60W
04/15/2011  E0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG HAPPEY HOLLOW ROAD.

0118 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW UNIONTOWN          32.39N 87.56W
04/15/2011                   MARENGO            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWW 3 WSW OF FREETOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0132 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VERNON                  33.76N 88.11W
04/15/2011                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ABERDEEN ROAD IN THREE LOCATIONS CLOSING ROAD.
            2 OTHER ROADS IN THE AREA ALSO CLOSED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
208 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GEIGER                  32.87N 88.31W
04/15/2011                   SUMTER             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CUBA VFD REPORTS MANY TREES DOWN IN THE GEIGER AREA...
            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&