Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT DISCUSSION TODAY. WE WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED ALL COUNTIES IN
OUR WARNING AREA INTO TORNADO WATCH 141. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS CREEPING NORTHWARD WHICH WARRANTED
THE INCLUSION OF ALL COUNTIES INTO THE WATCH. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED PAST 9 PM CDT
TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND WE WILL MODIFY THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIME FOR STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

10/ARM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF TCL AND BHM AND LOOK FOR THESE TO GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WILL SHOW TREND OF THIS
ACTIVITY WORKING SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREA.  BIG
CONCERN IS SEVERE THREAT WITH TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT.  WILL USE TEMPO GROUPS TO SHOW ESTIMATED WINDOW OF BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES...BUT POSSIBILITY
FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EXIST
AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE TSRA DEPARTING
EASTERN SECTIONS BY AROUND 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIIONS PREVAILING AFTER
THAT TIME.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     53  68  39  73  46 / 100  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    55  71  41  74  46 / 100  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  53  68  44  74  48 / 100  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  52  70  43  77  47 /  80  10   0   0  10
CALERA      54  70  46  75  48 / 100  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      58  72  46  75  50 /  90  20   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  57  76  46  77  49 /  80  10   0   0  10
TROY        58  74  47  79  48 /  70  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: AUTAUGA...BARBOUR...BIBB...BLOUNT...BULLOCK...
CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...CHILTON...CLAY...CLEBURNE...
COOSA...DALLAS...ELMORE...ETOWAH...FAYETTE...GREENE...HALE...
JEFFERSON...LAMAR...LEE...LOWNDES...MACON...MARENGO...MARION...
MONTGOMERY...PERRY...PICKENS...PIKE...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...
SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...SUMTER...TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA...
TUSCALOOSA...WALKER...WINSTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-161130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
600 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA BETWEEN 10 AM TODAY AND 3 AM TONIGHT.
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE...TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

BASED ON THE LATEST DATA...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
MAY COVER A RATHER LENGTHY PERIOD OF TIME AND EXTEND TO ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. BEGINNING IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS 10 AM TODAY AND
LASTING UNTIL 2 OR 3 AM TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST. ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY SPAWN STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT TIMING APPEARS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...DO NOT FOCUS ON ANY PARTICULAR HOUR...BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVITY AT ANY TIME. REVIEW YOUR PREPAREDNESS ACTION PLANS AND
BE READY TO TAKE ACTION WHEN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. STAY
TUNED TO FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH POSSIBLE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY
BE 25 MPH OR HIGHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AND
HAM RADIO OPERATORS IS EXPECTED TODAY.

75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
313 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JASPER                  33.85N 87.27W
04/15/2011                   WALKER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            25TH STREET IN DOWNTOWN JASPER FLOOED UP TO A FOOR DEEP.
            HWY 78 JUST NORTH OF BRIDGE PARTIALLU FLOODED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
315 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WINFIELD                33.93N 87.80W
04/15/2011                   MARION             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINFIELD PD REPORTS HWY 118 FLOODED UP TO A FOOT DEEP IN
            SPOTS.

&&

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