Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 22, 2011Grant County, Morton County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 22, 2011, 4:26 PM MDT for Grant County, Morton County, North Dakota. It was in force for 64 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 22, 2011, 4:26 PM MDT (22:26 UTC)
Expired: Jul 22, 2011, 5:30 PM MDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Grant County, ND, Morton County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 22, 5:10 PM MDT	HAIL 0.25	Almont, ND	HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL
Jul 22, 5:35 PM MDT	HAIL 1	Almont, ND	HAIL ONGOING AT 645 PM. GROUND WHITE WITH HAIL AND HAIL SIZE IS INCREASING. VERY HEAVY RAIN. WIND SPEED 20 MPH.
Jul 22, 5:40 PM MDT	TORNADO	35 Wsw Mandan, ND	PUBLIC SPOTTED DEBRIS FROM GREAT DISTANCE FROM STORM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1474 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -117 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 797 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 114 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 13.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

643 
WUUS53 KBIS 222226
SVRBIS
NDC037-059-222330-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0154.110722T2226Z-110722T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
526 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT/530 PM MDT/

* AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
  SOUTH OF ALMONT...OR 35 MILES WEST OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING
  NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 10171 4667 10174 4677 10163 4682 10146
      4666 10132 4659 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 138DEG 8KT 4665 10148
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SIMOSKO

3 follow-up statements

728 
WWUS53 KBIS 222241
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
541 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

NDC037-222251-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110722T2330Z/
GRANT ND-
441 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4663 10171 4665 10173 4669 10172 4677 10163
      4682 10146 4667 10133 4663 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 138DEG 8KT 4667 10151

$$

NDC059-222330-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110722T2330Z/
MORTON ND-
541 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MORTON
COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 539 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ALMONT...OR 36 MILES WEST OF BISMARCK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALMONT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 10171 4665 10173 4669 10172 4677 10163
      4682 10146 4667 10133 4663 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 138DEG 8KT 4667 10151
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SIMOSKO

866 
WWUS53 KBIS 222301
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
601 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

NDC059-222330-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110722T2330Z/
MORTON ND-
601 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MORTON
COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 558 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ALMONT...OR 37 MILES WEST OF BISMARCK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE WARNED 
AREA. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 
ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT 
QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.



&&

LAT...LON 4663 10171 4665 10173 4669 10172 4677 10163
      4682 10146 4667 10133 4663 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 138DEG 8KT 4670 10155
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SIMOSKO

340 
WWUS53 KBIS 222328
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

NDC059-222337-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-110722T2330Z/
MORTON ND-
628 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MORTON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT/530 PM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER HEAVY 
RAIN IS STILL LIKELY WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A TORNADO 
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4663 10171 4665 10173 4669 10172 4677 10163
      4682 10146 4667 10133 4663 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 138DEG 8KT 4674 10161

$$

SIMOSKO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 22, 2:50 PM MDT, 1 hour 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 22, 2:50 PM MDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
POWERFUL LOW OVER NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN TO CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT REACHING THE MONTANA BORDER THIS EVENING AND A BISMARCK TO
MANDAN LINE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

MODELS HAVE WEAKEND THE SYSTEM SOME ON THE 18Z RUN AS WELL AS
CHANGING DETAILS. WILL FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND FOR THE FORECAST
INCLUDING HRRR AND 4KM WRF MODELS. THIS WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION...SOME SEVERE CONVECTION...THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST...EXITING AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS OUR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

AFTER SATURDAY MORNING A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SUMMER
LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD RIDGING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
RESULTING IN DRY/PLEASANT WEATHER. HOWEVER...INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION COMMENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVE FROM EASTERN
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...MORE OR LESS A ZONAL FLOW AGAIN
DEVELOPS WITH WEAK RIDGING AT TIMES PROMOTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE WEAK SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SLIDING THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHC MENTION
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH IS IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. EXPECT SEASONAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS WITH MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
AERODROMES SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS KISN/KDIK FROM 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH
07Z SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO
KMOT/KBIS FROM 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO MVFR/IFR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE AERODROMES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-035>037-047-048-050-
051.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>034-040>046.

&&

SHORT TERM...HW
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...KS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 22, 3:41 AM MDT, 12 hours 45 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
441 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-230945-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
441 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011 /341 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS WESTERN AND
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE
HAIL IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST WEEK ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING...THE
THREAT OF MANY AREAS BEING IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR SUGGEST FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AYD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 22, 2:56 AM MDT	Flash Flood Watch	BIS	Adams, Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Burleigh and 26 more	23 hr
Jul 22, 5:11 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	BIS	Morton	116 min
Jul 22, 5:36 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Morton	24 min
Jul 22, 5:44 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Golden Valley, McKenzie, Williams	61 min
Jul 22, 5:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Morton	10 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.