Severe Thunderstorm Warning 234, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE
OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIAN ON SATURDAY PROVIDING A RAIN FREE DAY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AS OF 215 PM... WILL NEED TO KEEP THIS BRIEF...DUE TO
ONGOING SVR WX.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO GROW THIS AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS
THE TWIN TIERS...AS EXPECTED. AS SUPPORTING UPPER-LVL WAVE CROSSES
PA/SRN NY THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY NUMEROUS...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE IN THE FAR NRN ZONES.

WW 791 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z...BASICALLY E OF THE I-81
CORRIDOR. ML CAPES 1000-1500 THIS AREA...WITH ENOUGH DRY AIR
ALOFT...AT LEAST INITIALLY...TO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
HOWEVER...AS TIME GOES ON THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HRS INTO THIS
EVE...WE FEEL THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION MORE TO +RA...AS THE
COLUMN MOISTENS DUE TO REPEAT CELL DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN A WEAK
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND SMALL MBE VECTORS NOTED. A FF WATCH HAS THUS
BEEN ISSUED FOR NY'S SRN BORDER COUNTIES AND NE PA...UNTIL 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL PA TO COASTAL NEW
JERSEY. BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO OCCUR RESULTING IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIAN AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. WITH T85 RISING
TO 15/17C, MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NEXT TROF REMAINING WELL WEST OF REGION.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...NAM/ECMWF ARE FASTER WITH SFC COLD FRONT
THEN GFS. LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION WITH FRONT CROSSING
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
1.5-2.0 INCHES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY, SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG WHICH IS LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVELS AS IS EVIDENT BY FAIRLY
STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH STRONGER WIND FIELDS BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE HIGHER INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING THEN LOWERED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAXES ON SUNDAY ARE
TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING, WENT WITH THE
COOLER NAM NUMBERS, UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM POPULATED WITH HPC GUIDANCE GIVEN THE STORMS. BEST SHOT
AT DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN TSRA AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 22Z. AFTER THAT TIME VFR WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT WHEN IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMINALS THAT
SEE RAIN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT IN LIGHT FOG WITH IFR VSBYS
LIKELY AFTER 06Z AT ELM.

SAT... MAINLY VFR.

SUN AND MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY AFTN/EVE HRS.

TUE...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR.

WED...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ022-024-
     055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
118 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-055-PAZ038-201730-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-TIOGA-
BRADFORD-
118 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA, PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ045-046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-201730-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
118 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 791 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA, PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
237 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

PAZ047-191915-
LUZERNE PA-
237 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL LUZERNE COUNTY...

* AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A   STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WHITE HAVEN...AND
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WHITE HAVEN AT 245 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4094 7595 4112 7592 4111 7573 4110 7573
      4108 7576 4105 7576 4103 7573 4101 7573
      4093 7593

HEDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
242 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

NYZ055-191945-
TIOGA NY-
242 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN TIOGA COUNTY...

* AT 240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BARTON...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BARTON AT 250 PM EDT...
  NICHOLS AT 340 PM EDT...
  TIOGA CENTER AND LOUNSBERRY AT 345 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4221 7653 4222 7621 4222 7608 4219 7609
      4218 7612 4200 7610 4200 7653 4215 7654

SLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             ITALY HILL              42.60N  77.25W
08/19/2011  E0.75 INCH       YATES              NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .40 IN 14 MINUTES.

&&

EMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
243 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

NYZ045-056-PAZ039-191945-
BROOME NY-CHENANGO NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-
243 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SUSQUEHANNA...SOUTH
CENTRAL CHENANGO AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOME COUNTIES...

* AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  CONKLIN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BELDEN AT 250 PM EDT...
  GREAT BEND AND HALLSTEAD AT 300 PM EDT...
  NINEVEH AT 305 PM EDT...
  WINDSOR AND EAST WINDSOR AT 310 PM EDT...
  HICKORY GROVE AT 315 PM EDT...
  LANESBORO AND SUSQUEHANNA AT 335 PM EDT...
  SANFORD AT 340 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY!

LAT...LON 4200 7545 4200 7548 4194 7548 4187 7553
      4202 7596 4226 7582 4216 7542 4204 7542

TAC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             WHITE HAVEN             41.06N  75.78W
08/19/2011  E1.00 INCH       LUZERNE            PA   PUBLIC

&&

EMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
256 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

NYZ062-PAZ040-191945-
SULLIVAN NY-WAYNE PA-
256 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WAYNE AND WEST
CENTRAL SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

* AT 253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A   STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUTLEDGEDALE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ABRAHAMSVILLE AT 305 PM EDT...
  HANKINS AT 310 PM EDT...
  DAMASCUS AND MILANVILLE AT 320 PM EDT...
  COCHECTON AND HORTONVILLE AT 325 PM EDT...
  NORTH BRANCH AND LAVA AT 335 PM EDT...
  FOSTERDALE AND KENOZA LAKE AT 340 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4182 7494 4159 7497 4164 7529 4182 7527

HEDEN