Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1157 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
FAIR WEATHER. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AS OF 12 NOON... WW 686 NOW IN EFFECT TIL 23Z...FOR ALL OF
OUR CNTRL NY CNTYS...AS WELL AS THE NRN TIER OF PA. INSTAB/SHEAR
COMBO...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SVR TSRA.

GIVEN CURRENT STM MOTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER-LVL
WAVE...WE'LL BEGIN TO CLEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE AFTN (20-23Z).

UPDATED AS OF 10 AM... VSBL SAT/RADAR LOOPS SHOW DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS...ACRS LK ONT...AND INTO
PTNS OF WRN NY/SRN ONT ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH APPROACHING UPPER-
LVL WAVE. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND
NORTHEAST PA...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH EARLY AFTN...AND SOME HGT
FALLS/COOLING ALOFT FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER-LVL
SYSTEM...OUR AMS SHOULD DESTABILIZE...LEADING TO SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NWD. THUS...WE'LL
CONTINUE TO EMPLOY CHC POPS/SCTD WORDING THROUGH LATE AFTN. BASED
ON 12Z SOUNDINGS/MODEL PROGS...ML CAPES OF 500-1000 CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALG WITH GOOD VERT SHEAR (0-6 KM VALUES OF 40-50 KT).
BASED ON THESE INDICES...STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED IN
NATURE...AND WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY BY MIDDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO THIS AFTN...925/850 MB TEMPS AT 12Z SUPPORT OUR
FCST MAX READINGS FAIRLY WELL (UPPER 70S-MID 80S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONCE THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND LOOKS TO
POSSIBLY OCCLUDE BEFORE IT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11 AM UPDATE...LONG TERM FORECAST DONE EARLY WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. POPULATED WITH HPC GUIDANCE. FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH A RAIN THREAT ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND. NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP COMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLY VARIABLE FOG CONDITIONS AT KITH/KELM/KAVP WILL MIX OUT TO
VFR AROUND 12Z. UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WARM LAYER MAY
LIMITED INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED
TO ONLY BE SCATTERED BUT INCLUDED A 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR MVFR SHOWERS WITH CB MENTIONED IN CLOUD GROUP TO
IMPLY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL PERIOD FOR CONVECTION,
18Z-21Z BUT SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT KSYR AND LATER AT KAVP. AFTER
FROPA VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FOLLOWED BY WRAP
AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT KRME/KITH/KBGM.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LIGHT NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ...GENERALLY VFR. MORNING IFR/MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AT KELM EACH DAY. SCT TSTM THUR AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...MLJ/SLI
SHORT TERM...SLI/TAC
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...RRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-048-
072-271600-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...
WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ043-044-047-271600-
WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-
1200 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...
WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MJ

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