Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
136 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AS OF 1215 PM... WW #450 (SVR TSTM) NOW IN EFFECT TIL 00Z
(8 PM)...FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

LATEST MESO'S SHOW MAX INSTAB NOW ALG AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
(ML CAPES OF 3000-4000)...WITH DEEPER 0-6 KM SHEAR (30-40 KT)
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. BOTTOM LN...WITH THE SFC FRNT
/PRE-FRNTL TROUGH FEATURES MOVING IN THIS AFTN (18-21Z)...ALG WITH
SOME HGT FALLS ALOFT...MORE THAN ENOUGH FORCING FOR WELL ORGANIZED
SVR CONVECTION. ENHANCED WORDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED.

AGAIN...TEMP/DEW PT/SKY GRIDS TWEAKED IN THE VERY NEAR-TERM.

UPDATED AS OF 850 AM... CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY WANED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE AMS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
WITH HEATING (ML CAPES ALREADY 2000-3000 J/KG AT 13Z)...WE'RE IN
BETWEEN UPPER-LVL WAVES...WITH THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL ZN STILL
RUNNING THROUGH ONT/QUE FROM MONTREAL-TORONTO-LONDON. AS THE FRONT
NEARS...AND 500-700 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BY 18Z...STORMS
SHOULD RE-FIRE. THUS...WE'LL PERSIST WITH THE MENTION OF SCTD-NUM
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. GIVEN OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS (STG INSTABILITY
AND SOME DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR)...ENHANCED WORDING WAS ADDED FOR THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN/PUSH SEWD BY
LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVE.

TEMP/DEW PT/SKY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS COOLER SFC AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE NW AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE EVENING THEN END NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING
LATE EVENING. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT TURNS AROUND AND COMES BACK AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY
PM BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS
THE BEST CHC OF SEVERE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SAT AFTN AND
EVE. A LITTLE MORE SHEAR BUT LESS CAPE COMPARED TO TODAY. MODELS
ARE HAVING PROBLEMS AGREEING ON WHEN THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH BUT FRIDAY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT COULD HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST WAS COMPLETED EARLY USING HPC GRIDS AND GUIDANCE
SO WE CAN CONCENTRATE ON SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LINGERING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 00Z WITH DRYER
WEATHER... BUT LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PATCHY
FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH... AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTH... SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AT ALL TAF SITES BY
EARLY EVENING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS... AND LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER GUSTS
WITH A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT SAT THRU MON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...MSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1234 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101645-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1234 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL COULD DEVELOP WITH ANY STORM.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END BY EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1239 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NYZ036-037-046-091730-
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-OTSEGO NY-
1239 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRIDGEWATER...

* AT 1238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BRIDGEWATER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHFIELD SPRINGS AT 105 PM EDT...
  SPRINGFIELD AT 115 PM EDT...
  EAST SPRINGFIELD AT 120 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4274 7477 4286 7537 4298 7533 4299 7521
      4286 7520 4287 7515 4291 7511 4290 7506
      4283 7492 4285 7489 4288 7489 4290 7488
      4287 7477

HEDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1259 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     HAIL             2 ENE BRIDGEWATER       42.89N  75.21W
06/09/2011  E1.50 INCH       ONEIDA             NY   PUBLIC

&&

EMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
110 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             DRYDEN                  42.49N  76.30W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       TOMPKINS           NY   PUBLIC

&&

JML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
114 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     HAIL             1 W RICHFIELD SPRINGS   42.85N  75.01W
06/09/2011  M1.00 INCH       OTSEGO             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
129 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             SCOTT                   42.73N  76.23W
06/09/2011  M1.25 INCH       CORTLAND           NY   PUBLIC

&&

EMG

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