Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1239 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS STARTING FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AS OF 1215 PM... WW #450 (SVR TSTM) NOW IN EFFECT TIL 00Z
(8 PM)...FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

LATEST MESO'S SHOW MAX INSTAB NOW ALG AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
(ML CAPES OF 3000-4000)...WITH DEEPER 0-6 KM SHEAR (30-40 KT)
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E. BOTTOM LN...WITH THE SFC FRNT
/PRE-FRNTL TROUGH FEATURES MOVING IN THIS AFTN (18-21Z)...ALG WITH
SOME HGT FALLS ALOFT...MORE THAN ENOUGH FORCING FOR WELL ORGANIZED
SVR CONVECTION. ENHANCED WORDING WILL CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED.

AGAIN...TEMP/DEW PT/SKY GRIDS TWEAKED IN THE VERY NEAR-TERM.

UPDATED AS OF 850 AM... CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY WANED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE AMS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
WITH HEATING (ML CAPES ALREADY 2000-3000 J/KG AT 13Z)...WE'RE IN
BETWEEN UPPER-LVL WAVES...WITH THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL ZN STILL
RUNNING THROUGH ONT/QUE FROM MONTREAL-TORONTO-LONDON. AS THE FRONT
NEARS...AND 500-700 MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BY 18Z...STORMS
SHOULD RE-FIRE. THUS...WE'LL PERSIST WITH THE MENTION OF SCTD-NUM
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. GIVEN OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS (STG INSTABILITY
AND SOME DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR)...ENHANCED WORDING WAS ADDED FOR THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN/PUSH SEWD BY
LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY IN THE EVE.

TEMP/DEW PT/SKY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
STORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS COOLER SFC AIR SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE NW AND DAYTIME HEATING WANES. SOME SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE EVENING THEN END NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING
LATE EVENING. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT TURNS AROUND AND COMES BACK AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY
PM BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS
THE BEST CHC OF SEVERE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SAT AFTN AND
EVE. A LITTLE MORE SHEAR BUT LESS CAPE COMPARED TO TODAY. MODELS
ARE HAVING PROBLEMS AGREEING ON WHEN THE WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH BUT FRIDAY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT COULD HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST WAS COMPLETED EARLY USING HPC GRIDS AND GUIDANCE
SO WE CAN CONCENTRATE ON SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT LINGERING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG MAY PERSIST AT KELM/KAVP UNTIL 13Z,
OTHERWISE SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4K FT ALONG WITH A MID DECK
WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING.  A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCLUDED A FOUR HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST BEHIND BOUNDARY AND INCLUDED CB IN
CLOUD GROUP TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN SHOWERY BUT LESS CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY BECOME MORE STABLE. INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUP LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR JUST SHOWERS.
BEHIND BOUNDARY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MIXING WILL
LEAD TO STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND MIST EXPECTED AFTER
04Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND MIDDAY, WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING TO LIGHT NORTHWEST.
WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY.

.OUTLOOK...

THU EVE...VFR AND MVFR...ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

THU NGT...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH LOW STRATUS AND
FOG BEHIND COLD FRONT.

FRI...BECOMING VFR.

SAT THRU MON...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...RRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1234 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-101645-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1234 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL COULD DEVELOP WITH ANY STORM.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END BY EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1216 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NYZ016-017-091645-
CAYUGA NY-SENECA NY-
1216 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING WATERLOO...

* AT 1213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERLOO...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WATERLOO AND MAGEE AT 1220 PM EDT...
  SENECA FALLS AND LEHIGH VLY JCT AT 1225 PM EDT...
  CAYUGA AND FAYETTE AT 1230 PM EDT...
  CANOGA AND FOSTERVILLE AT 1235 PM EDT...
  UNION SPRINGS AND THROOPSVILLE AT 1240 PM EDT...
  MAPLETON AND FLEMING AT 1245 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4288 7697 4301 7697 4302 7696 4303 7680
      4295 7648 4273 7662 4287 7698

HEDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1239 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

NYZ036-037-046-091730-
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-OTSEGO NY-
1239 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRIDGEWATER...

* AT 1238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BRIDGEWATER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RICHFIELD SPRINGS AT 105 PM EDT...
  SPRINGFIELD AT 115 PM EDT...
  EAST SPRINGFIELD AT 120 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4274 7477 4286 7537 4298 7533 4299 7521
      4286 7520 4287 7515 4291 7511 4290 7506
      4283 7492 4285 7489 4288 7489 4290 7488
      4287 7477

HEDEN