River Flood Warning 121, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
430 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAJOR FLOODING
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH WEEK'S END.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE... BAD COMBO OF INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO CONTINUE VERY
HVY RAINFALL THIS EVE. CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE
OH VLY...WITH A DEEP SRLY FETCH ALG THE ERN SEABOARD...ONLY ADDING TO THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM THE REMAINS OF TS LEE. AS AN ADDITIVE
FACTOR...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW TROP MOIST FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
KATIA...GETTING STEERED ALL THE WAY INTO THE +RA AREA...FROM THE
MID-ATL INTO NY/PA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN RESEMBLES THE MAJOR
FLOOD EVENT FROM JUNE 2006...AND ALSO MATCHES THE LRG-SCALE
PATTERN FOR A "JET IN RIDGE" (ANTICYCLONIC JET CURVATURE) PRE
(PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT).

BOTTOM LN...SIG MOIST FEED/+RA BAND CURRENTLY IN PLACE...IS NOT
LIKELY TO SHOW MUCH WEAKENING/MOVEMENT...TIL AT LEAST 06-09Z.
ANOTHER 2-4"+ IS LIKELY WITHIN THIS BAND. FLASH FLOODING/RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE MAJOR...WITH IMPACTS LASTING WELL PAST THIS
PD...AND THROUGH THE COMING DAYS.

UPDATED AS OF 12 NOON... MAJOR EVENT UNFOLDING ATTM...WITH BAND
OF +RA FEEDING UP THE I-81 CORRIDOR. CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGES AND MODEL PROGS SHOW LITTLE HOPE OF ANY RELIEF FOR THE NEXT
3-6 HRS...AT LEAST...WITH LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GOMEX...AND ALSO KATIA WELL OFFSHORE...COMBINING WITH EXISTING
MOIST PLUME FROM THE REMNANTS OF LEE. WE ADJUSTED OUR QPF AXIS A
BIT TO THE E...AND ALSO UPPED THE MAGNITUDE...TO BETTER MATCH
RADAR TRENDS...AND GROUND TRUTH RAIN SPOTTER REPORTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
415 UPDATE...WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF...WITH ONGOING SIG WX/FLOODING.

THE UPPER TROUGH/REMNANTS OF LEE...IS PROGGED BY OUR NWP SUITE TO
SLOWLY DECAY/DRIFT WWD FROM THE OH VLY...WHILE KATIA ACCELERATES
OFF TO THE NE...FURTHER OUT TO SEA. RESIDUAL MOIST/INSTAB SHOULD
RESULT IN SCTD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THU AFTN...WITH SIMILAR ON
FRI...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE BY THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE XTNDD PD AS WEAK UPR RDG TRIES TO HOLD OFF ADTNL
TROPICAL MOISTURE. GFS IS COMPLETELY DFRNT THAN THE ECMWF WITH A
FAST MVG NRN STREAM WV ON MON BRINGING BRIEF PD OF RAIN. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TWRD THE ECMWF SOLN THAT KEEPS MOST OF THE
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU THE PD. THIS AGREES BETTER WITH
THE PRVS FCST...AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FCST AREA BETWEEN TWO LRG UPR LOWS WHICH ARE PUSHING MOISTURE UP
AND INTO THE AREA. WILL XPCT CONTD MVFR AND IFR CONDS IN RAIN THRU
00Z...FLWD BY LGTR RAIN BUT CONTD LOW CONDS OVRNGT WITH CONTD HIGH
AVBL MOISTURE. NO REAL IMPRVMT XPCTD THRU THE END OF THE PD AS
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT INTO THU NGT...MVFR AND IFR IN RAIN AND FOG.

FRI TO SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH SEMITROPICAL MOISTURE STILL HERE AND
             SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
420 PM UPDATE... RAINFALL FROM TODAY SO FAR (3-6")...WITHIN
THE HEAVIER PCPN BAND...PLUS ADDITIONAL EXPECTED QPF THROUGH
06-12Z...IS NOW EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAJOR/NEAR RECORD FLOODING IN
THE SUSQ BASIN. MDT-MAJ FLOODING IS FORESEEN ON THE UPPER
DEL...WITH ONLY SIG IN-BANKFUL RISES ON MUCH OF THE CHEMUNG.

OF COURSE...FLASH FLOODING IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL...AND ONGOING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA.

EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COMING NWD FROM PA...WILL ONLY ADD TO
THE FLOOD MISERY LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.

REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SPECIFIC RIVER PT INFO
(ALBFLWBGM)...AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS/EMERGENCIES FOR FLASH FLOOD
INFO (ALBFFWBGM).

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM/SLI
HYDROLOGY...MLJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
432 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-082045-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
432 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

MJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
540 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CONYNGHAM               40.99N  76.06W
09/06/2011                   LUZERNE            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NESCOPEK CREEK COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS IN SEVERAL
            LOCATIONS

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WILKES-BARRE            41.25N  75.88W
09/07/2011                   LUZERNE            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING WITH SOME EVACUATIONS BEGINNING

0530 AM     FLOOD            CALLICOON               41.77N  75.05W
09/07/2011                   SULLIVAN           NY   911 CENTER

            WATER OVER ROUTE 52 IMPASSABLE

0912 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S LITTLE MEADOWS      41.98N  76.13W
09/07/2011                   SUSQUEHANNA        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BOLLES HILL RD HAS WATER OVER A BRIDGE

1007 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SMITHBORO               42.03N  76.40W
09/07/2011                   TIOGA              NY   PUBLIC

            SMITH CREEK RO AND SULPHER SPRINGS RD HAVE WATER OVER
            THEM AND IMPASSABLE.

1011 AM     FLASH FLOOD      APALACHIN               42.07N  76.17W
09/07/2011                   TIOGA              NY   PUBLIC

            WATER OVER STREETS AND RUNNING THROUGH PEOPLES YARDS.

1028 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE NORTH FENTON       42.23N  75.78W
09/07/2011  M1.30 INCH       BROOME             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

1031 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BINGHAMTON              42.10N  75.91W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS STREETS AND ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSE. DEEP
            PONDING OF WATER IN UNDERPASSED. THIS INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
            TRIPLE CITIES AREA.

1048 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FALLSBURG               41.73N  74.62W
09/07/2011                   SULLIVAN           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVACUTIONS OF 300 HOME NEAR FALLSBURG.

1054 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S CASTLE CREEK        42.22N  75.92W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            BROOKS RD FLOODED NEAR FOX RD.

1100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W GLEN CASTLE         42.18N  75.93W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WEST CHENANGO RD FLOODED NEAR RT 11.

1101 AM     FLASH FLOOD      COVENTRY                42.32N  75.63W
09/07/2011                   CHENANGO           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED.

1103 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE OWEGO             42.12N  76.26W
09/07/2011                   TIOGA              NY   PUBLIC

            LISLE RD NEAR GARY HUNT RD WATER OVER THE ROAD.

1112 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENE                  42.33N  75.77W
09/07/2011                   CHENANGO           NY   911 CENTER

            COUNTY RD 32 IN GREENE TWP. CLOSED DUE TO WATER OVER
            THE RD.

1114 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E NICHOLS             42.02N  76.35W
09/07/2011                   TIOGA              NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EAST RIVER RD FLOODED AT NICHOLS. WATER IN HOUSES ON
            EAST RIVER RD NEAR LOUNSBERRY.

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENE                  42.33N  75.77W
09/07/2011                   CHENANGO           NY   PUBLIC

            STREAMS OVER ROADS AND BRIDGES.

1133 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NESCOPECK               41.05N  76.21W
09/07/2011                   LUZERNE            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NESCOPEK CREEK FLOODING.

1136 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WINDHAM CENTER          41.96N  76.33W
09/07/2011                   BRADFORD           PA   UNKNOWN

            ROUTE 187 FLOODED.

1205 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FORKSTON                41.53N  76.13W
09/07/2011                   WYOMING            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREAMS OVER FLOWING BANKS. ROADS FLOODED.

1206 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TUNKHANNOCK             41.54N  75.95W
09/07/2011                   WYOMING            PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BOWMANS CREEK FLOODING. THREATENING A HOME.

1219 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OWEGO                   42.10N  76.26W
09/07/2011                   TIOGA              NY   911 CENTER

            NUMEROUS RDS CLOSED DUE TO STREAMS FLOODING OVER ROADS.
            MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST CORNERS            42.12N  76.07W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NANTICOKE CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS FLOODING
            NEIGHBORHOOD ALONG RIVER DRIVE.

0105 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NEWARK VALLEY           42.22N  76.19W
09/07/2011                   TIOGA              NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. STREAMS OF THEIR
            BANKS AND OVER BRIDGES.

0111 PM     FLOOD            BINGHAMTON              42.10N  75.91W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            STATE OF EMERGENCY IN BROOME COUNTY. MAJOR FLOODING
            OCCURRING ACROSS MANY SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY. ROADS
            CLOSED. HOMES EVACUATED.

0123 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW GLEN AUBREY       42.30N  76.03W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   911 CENTER

            LEEKVILLE RD WASHOUT

0202 PM     FLOOD            TOWANDA                 41.77N  76.45W
09/07/2011                   BRADFORD           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STATE OF EMERGENCY IN BRADFORD COUNTY. MAJOR FLOODING.
            MANY ROADS CLOSED. EVACUATIONS.

0204 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LITTLE MEADOWS          41.99N  76.13W
09/07/2011                   SUSQUEHANNA        PA   911 CENTER

            NATIONAL GUARD BEING CALLED IN TO RESCUE TRAPPED
            RESIDENTS.

0220 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONROETON               41.72N  76.47W
09/07/2011                   BRADFORD           PA   PUBLIC

            RTE 220...RTE 414 AND RT6 ARE ALL CLOSED DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING. THESE ARE ALL THE MAIN ROADS THROUGH
            MONROETON.

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MONROETON               41.72N  76.47W
09/07/2011  M3.65 INCH       BRADFORD           PA   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL FROM 8 AM TIO 3 PM

0321 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MAINE                   42.20N  76.07W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ROUTE 26 JUST NORTH OF THE TOWN OF
            MAINE...APPROXIMATELY 3 FEET OF WATER WAS IN A COUNTRY
            STORE AND JUST SOUTH OF MAINE... APPROXIMATELY 4 FEET OF
            WATER OVER ROUTE 26

0325 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CASTLE CREEK            42.23N  75.92W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            IN THE TOWN OF CASTLE CREEK ... CREEK IS WELL OVER BANK
            AND IS FLOODING HOMES IN THE TOWN

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TOWANDA                 41.77N  76.45W
09/07/2011                   BRADFORD           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN THE TOWANDA AREA.

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WYSOX                   41.77N  76.40W
09/07/2011                   BRADFORD           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 6 IS CLOSED BETWEEN WYSOX AND WYALUSING.

0335 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GLEN AUBREY             42.26N  76.01W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NANTICOKE CREEK FLOODING ROADS AND THREATENING HOMES.

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OTEGO                   42.39N  75.18W
09/07/2011                   OTSEGO             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUES. NUMEROUIS ROADS CLOSED. STATE OF
            EMERGENCY IN OTSEGO COUNTY.

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORWICH                 42.53N  75.52W
09/07/2011                   CHENANGO           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WILLARD COURT FLOODED. 30 TO 40 PEOPLE EVACUATED.

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RUSH                    41.78N  76.05W
09/07/2011                   SUSQUEHANNA        PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY ROADS FLOODED. RESCUES TAKING PLACE.

0355 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WILLET                  42.47N  75.90W
09/07/2011                   CORTLAND           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS. ROAD CLOSURES.

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BINGHAMTON              42.10N  75.91W
09/07/2011                   BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            I-88 EAST BETWEEN EXIT 2 AND EXIT 3 IS CLOSED DUE TO A
            LANDSLIDE WITH TREES INVOLVED.

0425 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ONEONTA                 42.45N  75.07W
09/07/2011                   OTSEGO             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED. SUNY ONEONTA ALMOST CUT OFF ON
            THE HILL ABOVE THE FLOODING.

0445 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE ROME              41.86N  76.32W
09/07/2011                   BRADFORD           PA   PUBLIC

            MAJOR FLOODING IN BRADFORD COUNTY ROUTES 220 AND
            187...AND NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS CLOSED AND SEVERAL TOWNS
            UNACCESSIBLE. STUDENTS ARE UNABLE TO LEAVE NORTH
            BRADFORD HIGH SCHOOL AND EVACUATIONS UNDERWAY IN SEVERAL
            COMMUNITIES.

0451 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S GREENE              42.27N  75.77W
09/07/2011                   CHENANGO           NY   PUBLIC

            PAGE BROOK ROAD IS FLOODED AT THE CHALKER CREEK
            CULVERT. CHALKER CREEK HAS BREACHED THE CULLVERT AND IS
            FLOWING DOWN THE ROAD .

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S WATKINS GLEN        42.36N  76.87W
09/07/2011                   SCHUYLER           NY   PUBLIC

            ROAD FLOODING ON NYS 14 BETWEEN WATKINS GLEN AND
            MONTOUR FALLS. ONE LANE IS COVERED FOR ABOUT 100 FEET

0536 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORWICH                 42.53N  75.52W
09/07/2011                   CHENANGO           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STATE OF EMERGENCY IN CHENANGO COUNTY. ROADS WILL BE
            REMAINED CLOSED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

DJN