Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
754 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY....THEN STALL AND WEAKEN. RAIN, HEAVY AT
TIMES, WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING...AND THEN RIVER
FLOODING WILL DEVELOP AS RUNOFF FLOWS INTO THE RIVERS. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO LIGHTER SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 625 AM...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO CRNT FCST. LATEST TRENDS
FROM 06Z GFS/EURO AND CRNT RUC RUN SUPPORT THE LOCATION OF OUR FCST MAX
PXPN AXIS TO BE CNTRD OVER THE CNTRL SRN TIER/SRN FINGER LAKES AND
WRN SUSQ RGN. PREV BLO...

RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE BGM CWA...WITH RPTS OF FLOODING ALREADY
ACRS NE PA. STRONG ISEN ASCENT UNDERNEATH RR QUAD OF AN UPR LVL
JET...AND SFC INVERTED TROF WHICH WILL BE FOCUS FOR +RA ACRS THE
FCST AREA LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOME DIFFS IN THE LOCATION OF
THIS HEAVY PCPN AXIS...WITH CANADIAN IN PARTICULAR FURTHER EAST
NEARER THE BGM RGN. NAM/GFS SUGGEST THIS FOCUS WILL BE FURTHER W
OVER THE CNTRL SRN TIER/SRN FINGER LAKES AND FAR WRN PORTIONS OF
THE SUSQ RGN....AND QUICK LOOK AT LATEST HRR/RUC AND OOZ EURO
SUPPORTS THIS LOCATION. LATEST QPF FCSTS HAVE AN AXIS OF 4-7
INCHES IN THIS AREA...AND POTNL FOR LCLLY HIER AMTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. VERY HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL AID +RA TDA/TNGT. POTNL FOR SOME
TSRA ACRS NE PA WHERE AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E WILL WORK INTO THE
RGN. LEANED TWDS COOLER MET TEMPS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PCPN SHUD BCM MORE SHOWERY ON THU/THU NGT BUT POTNL WILL STILL
EXITS FOR SOME LCLY HEAVY RAIN. CHC FOR TSRA SPCLY SRN TIER AND
NE PA THU MAINLY THU/FRI AFTNS...WHICH WILL ONLY EXACERBATE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS. ACTIVITY SHUD SLOWLY DCRS WITH TIME INTO FRIDAY
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 2 PM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SOME SHOWERS STILL AROUND WITH LEE STILL CUT
OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LIFTS OUT ON BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
ON MONDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NOT AS WET WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY TO MONDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY FROM MVFR DOWN TO IFR, AND POSSIBLY
EVEN LIFR IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERACTING WITH A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WIL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TOMORROW. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION TODAY. THIS AREA WILL SEE THE
GREATEST AFFECTS ON CIGS AND VSBYS. BY TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT INTO THU NGT...MVFR AND IFR IN RAIN AND FOG.

FRI TO SUN...VFR/MVFR WITH SEMITROPICAL MOISTURE STILL HERE AND
             SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPFS FROM NCEP...GFS AND NAM ALSO SUGGEST A 4-7 INCH RAINFALL ACRS
CNTRL SRN TIER/CHEMUNG BASIN AND SRN FINGER LAKES. THE REST OF THE
REGION SEES 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. BUT THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN A LOT OF
RAIN FROM IRENE WITH THE CNTRL SRN TIER/CHEMUNG AND FINGER LAKES
SEEING LESS RAIN AND HAVE MORE CAPACITY TO HOLD SOME RUNOFF BACK.
IN ANY EVENT...WE ARE VERY CONCERNED FOR LOCALIZED MAJOR FLASH
FLOODING...AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ON OUR
RIVERS. THE MOST AT RISK LIKELY WILL BE THE CHEMUNG BASIN...FINGER
LAKES...BASINS OF NORTHEAST PA. THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE
SUSQUEHANNA AND UPPER DELAWARE LIKELY WILL SEE SOME FLOODING BUT
CUD BE SPARED THE WORST SINCE IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAINS MAY STAY WEST OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WARRANT FLOOD WATCHES GIVEN HOW WET IT
HAS BEEN. BOTTOM LINE NO ONE IS OUT OF THE WOODS AT THIS POINT.
THE THREATS ARE ELEVATED FOR FLOODING EVERYWHERE IN OUR SERVICE
AREA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...SLI
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-080745-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
344 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
637 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLOOD            CALLICOON               41.77N  75.05W
09/07/2011                   SULLIVAN           NY   911 CENTER

            WATER OVER ROUTE 52 IMPASSABLE

&&

TAC