Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS La Crosse, WI

759 
WWUS53 KARX 021100
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

IAC131-MNC099-021130-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-110902T1130Z/
MITCHELL IA-MOWER MN-
600 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOWER AND
NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 554 AM...THE MITCHELL COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED TREE LIMBS DOWN AND 
HAIL OF AN UNKNOWN SIZE JUST EAST OF CARPENTER.

AT 553 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR LYLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
AUSTIN...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE PING PONG BALL
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ADAMS AND BAILEY AROUND 605 AM...
  TAOPI AND MCINTIRE AROUND 610 AM...
  LE ROY AND GRAND MEADOW AROUND 615 AM...
  HAMILTON AROUND 625 AM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4373 9305 4385 9278 4383 9245 4351 9245
      4350 9255 4342 9256 4332 9302 4349 9303
      4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1058Z 252DEG 47KT 4352 9282
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

04

589 
WWUS53 KARX 021113
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
613 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

IAC131-MNC099-021130-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-110902T1130Z/
MITCHELL IA-MOWER MN-
613 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOWER AND
NORTHERN MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 603 AM...THE PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL IN LYLE WITH A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

AT 607 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR TAOPI...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
AUSTIN...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE PING PONG BALL
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COUNTY ROADS 4 AND 3 AND HIGHWAYS 63 AND 16 AROUND 620 AM...
  HAMILTON AROUND 625 AM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4377 9297 4385 9278 4384 9269 4383 9268
      4384 9258 4383 9245 4351 9245 4350 9255
      4342 9256 4334 9296 4351 9298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1112Z 252DEG 47KT 4357 9258
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

04

912 
WWUS53 KARX 021118
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
618 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

IAC131-MNC099-021130-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-110902T1130Z/
MITCHELL IA-MOWER MN-
618 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN MOWER
AND NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 616 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR COUNTY ROADS 4 AND 3...OR 22 MILES
WEST OF PRESTON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE PING
PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9278 4384 9269 4383 9268 4384 9256
      4383 9245 4351 9245 4350 9255 4342 9256
      4337 9279 4351 9282
TIME...MOT...LOC 1119Z 252DEG 47KT 4359 9246
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

04

179 
WWUS53 KARX 021126
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
626 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

IAC131-MNC099-021135-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-110902T1130Z/
MITCHELL IA-MOWER MN-
626 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MOWER AND NORTHEASTERN
MITCHELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 AM CDT...

AROUND 600 AM...THE MITCHELL COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A TREE WAS 
BLOWN DOWN IN STACYVILLE.

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4385 9278 4384 9269 4383 9268 4384 9256
      4383 9245 4351 9245 4350 9255 4342 9256
      4337 9279 4351 9282
TIME...MOT...LOC 1125Z 252DEG 47KT 4361 9235

$$

04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE STORM THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...THEN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPARK OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DRIVING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS //PER WATERVAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY//. AT THE SFC A FRONT RAN FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SOUTHEAST
INTO NEB.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK
TODAY...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ITS ENERGY TO THE NORTH. THE TROUGH
WILL GIVE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT A PUSH EAST
THOUGH...TAKING ON A MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS NORTHERN
IA/SOUTHERN WI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME 2-D FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AROUND THE BOUNDARY...WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT 925-700 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IT. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE/SPARK
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY DESPITE DECENT
LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. TONIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO WAVER JUST TO THE SOUTH...WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SPINNING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WOULD EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO BLOSSOM IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING. 1000-2500
J/KG OF MUCAPE AROUND AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH UP TO 40 KTS
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR INDICATED TODAY. TONIGHT 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE IN
THE 1-6 KM LAYER WITH 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PERSISTING.
CERTAINLY SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH IN
WHEN/WHERE THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE...WITH CONVECTION IN THE WEST
MOVING IN THIS MORNING...MODIFYING THE ATMOSPHERE AND ADDING AN
ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH THE DAY/NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEAR DOWN ON THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED
SFC COLD FRONT WELL AHEAD OF IT AND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE 02.00Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE NAM IN THIS STEAD. THIS
SYSTEM GIVES THE LINGERING FRONT A FURTHER PUSH SOUTH...BUT WOULD
ALSO BRING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS AS FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG THIS COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND INSTABILITY. ENOUGH SHEAR TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STRONG/SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. THIS RISK MIGHT BE
SHIFTED MORE EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY POST THE SYSTEM WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE AROUND THE EXITING LOW LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTH. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT A STRONG SLUG OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO TUMBLING TEMPS...DROPPING FROM 14 C
AT 850 MB AT 00Z SUN TO 7 C BY 00Z MON. LOOK FOR A MUCH COOLER END
TO THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 AND LOWS FALLING OFF INTO THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING A FRIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST FOR NEXT WEEK...WHILE DEEPENING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BE THE MAIN WEATHER
INFLUENCE LOCALLY...RESULTING IN SEVERAL DRY DAYS WITH TEMPS NEAR
THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. THERE DOES LIE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS MORE ENERGY WEST WHICH LEADS TO
A BETTER RAIN THREAT FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE EC
HINTS THAT IT COULD ALL STAY EAST. WILL LEAN ON THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

CURRENTLY WATCHING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
THROUGH WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SHRA/TS ACTUALLY OCCURRING
BEHIND THE FRONT CLOSER TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH THAT POST-FRONTAL SHRA/TS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE
KRST/KLSE TAF SITES...REACHING KRST AROUND 10Z AND KLSE BY 13Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS SHRA/TS ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS/BUFKIT THEN INDICATE
SOME LOWER MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES IN COLD AIR ADVECTION...LASTING INTO TONIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI-CENTRAL IA
OVERNIGHT FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLD T ACTIVITY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT VIS/CIG COULD EVEN FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS AS THE
VERY MOIST LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OVERNIGHT/AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT ALL THIS AND INCLUDE DETAILS WITH THE 02.12Z
TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM... RIECK
AVIATION.......... DAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
415 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-031000-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
415 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE WOULD BE THE THREAT FOR STRONG...TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
THE HIGHER RISK OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. FURTHER
ACTIVATION COULD BE REQUESTED FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

RIECK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
518 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ079-086-087-094-095-021230-
CHICKASAW-DODGE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-HOWARD-MITCHELL-MOWER-OLMSTED-WABASHA-
518 AM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...STRONG STORMS MOVING IN...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MARCHING IN FROM THE WEST...PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE
STORMS COULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON SOME ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING. MORNING COMMUTERS AND THOSE GETTING A
HEAD START ON THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORMY
TRAVEL EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIECK