Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Gaylord, MI

607 
WWUS34 KAPX 081825
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
225 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

MIC009-029-031-137-081915-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-110608T1915Z/
CHEBOYGAN MI-ANTRIM MI-OTSEGO MI-CHARLEVOIX MI-
225 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
CHARLEVOIX...OTSEGO...EASTERN ANTRIM AND SOUTHERN CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM VANDERBILT TO ALBA...MOVING EAST
AT 65 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GAYLORD...WOLVERINE...PICKEREL LAKE...SPARR...EASTERN CORWITH
  TOWNSHIP...JOHANNESBURG AND PIGEON RIVER STATE FOREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4492 8509 4499 8519 4527 8480 4528 8430
      4520 8432 4520 8437 4496 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 260DEG 57KT 4521 8463 4497 8490
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$


JK

354 
WWUS34 KAPX 081838
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
238 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

MIC009-029-081847-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-110608T1915Z/
ANTRIM MI-CHARLEVOIX MI-
238 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHARLEVOIX AND
EASTERN ANTRIM COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4494 8480 4502 8476 4519 8468 4527 8465
      4528 8430 4520 8432 4520 8437 4496 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 271DEG 53KT 4525 8435 4496 8451
WIND...HAIL <50MPH <.50IN

$$

MIC031-137-081915-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-110608T1915Z/
CHEBOYGAN MI-OTSEGO MI-
238 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
OTSEGO AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF AFTON TO CHESTER
TOWNSHIP...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

IN ADDITION...ONE INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS AREA OF STORMS BY 
AN NWS EMPLOYEE IN GAYLORD AT 232 PM. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JOHANNESBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4494 8480 4502 8476 4519 8468 4527 8465
      4528 8430 4520 8432 4520 8437 4496 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 271DEG 53KT 4525 8435 4496 8451
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$


JK

801 
WWUS34 KAPX 081850
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
250 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

MIC031-137-081900-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-110608T1915Z/
CHEBOYGAN MI-OTSEGO MI-
250 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN OTSEGO AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.

LAT...LON 4494 8480 4502 8476 4519 8468 4527 8465
      4528 8430 4520 8432 4520 8437 4496 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 271DEG 53KT 4524 8408 4495 8424
WIND...HAIL <50MPH <.50IN

$$


JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
139 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 332 AM/

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS AHEAD FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT
RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...KICKING OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY MUCH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY...ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN.

JZ

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1205 PM/...TODAY

SOME UPDATED THOUGHTS AT MIDDAY...ONE BAND OF CONVECTION REMAINS
BETWEEN THE M-32 AND M-68 CORRIDORS...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ALREADY DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND HEADING TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO
MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TIMING AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN LOWER. ONE CONCERN WITH APPROACHING LINE OUT OF
WISCONSIN IS EAST-WEST ORIENTED CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG THE M-32 CORRIDOR. EARLIER THOUGHT THAT THIS WOULD
WEAKEN PRIOR TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ARRIVING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOW CONCERNED THAT LINE OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM MAY
INTERACT WITH THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
QLCS-TYPE LOW LEVEL SPIN-UPS NORTH OF M-72 CLOSER TO BETTER NEAR
SURFACE INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO SEE LARGE HAIL IN SOME
OF THE BIGGER STORMS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 332 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ROUNDING OUT THE WORK WEEK REVOLVE AROUND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY JUST HOW COOL TEMPS
WILL END UP ON THURSDAY AND ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO
FRIDAY. ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FAIRLY
QUICKLY TONIGHT...MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS IT
PASSES (SEE ABOVE FOR THE DETAILS)...THOUGH OVERALL THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY 09Z OR SO. ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT
TO INCOMING RATHER IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT STRAIGHT OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD
SUNRISE AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY.

PER PATTERN RECOGNITION...PUNCH OF VERY CHILLY AIR SLICING IN
BENEATH LINGERING WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL ALSO THERE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE STRAITS DOWN INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE COMPONENT MAY COME INTO PLAY. THIS WILL
WREAK HAVOC WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT
HOW LONG STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND AND/OR LIFT INTO A CU DECK.
SUSPECT NORTHERN AREAS WILL MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
INFLUX OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...THOUGH NORTHERN LOWER MAY END UP
STUCK IN THE MUCH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NAM12 2M TEMPS SHOW HIGHS
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THIS MIGHT BE
ON THE RIGHT TRACK. WILL NUDGE GOING READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...
BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST (AT LEAST NOT YET) AS LATE
DAY SUN SHOULD HELP TACK A FEW DEGREES ONTO INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS.

COOL NIGHT APPEARS IN THE WORKS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
CENTER SETTLING THROUGH ONTARIO AND LIGHT WIND REGIME/DRY AIR IN
PLACE. MET/MAV READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR THE COLD SPOTS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD START PER UPSTREAM OBS WITHIN THIS AIR MASS RIGHT
NOW...WITH MAINLY 40S ELSEWHERE - DEFINITELY A REFRESHING CHANGE
OVER TONIGHT'S MUGGINESS. THEREAFTER...WILL BE FOCUSING ON NEXT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY SLIGHTLY ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...
WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON ITS EASTWARD PLACEMENT ON
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY...THESE PIECES OF GUIDANCE DEVELOP A RATHER
HEALTHY RAIN SHIELD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP
LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT STRENGTHENS...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE HOLD
PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY. LITTLE
FEELING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...THOUGH SREF MEAN MORE IN LINE WITH
NAM/ECMWF. WILL ADD IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIP CHANCES
(I.E. COULD BE ANOTHER COOLISH DAY IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH).

LAWRENCE

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEEKEND WILL STILL START OUT COOL...AND
PROBABLY WET. MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL TRANSIT THE NORTHERN LAKES SAT NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN LOWER MI ON
SATURDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT SATURDAY...INTRODUCED THUNDER TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SHRA
TO NE LOWER MI SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...500MB RIDGING
WILL POKE UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY...AHEAD OF BROAD
TROFFING IN THE WEST. SO DRY WX LOOKS GOOD SUNDAY-MONDAY.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON A RATHER CLOUDY SATURDAY...THOUGH IF
THE LOW GETS TUGGED A BIT NORTH...SOUTHERN REACHES COULD MAKE THE
70S. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY IN THE 60S.
TEMPS WILL START TO RECOVER MONDAY...NEAR 70 TO THE LOW 70S.

JZ

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 332 AM/

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING DOWN OF RATHER STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IN QUITE THE WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION AND/OR
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE
WATERS INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROVIDING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH.
COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE MAINTAINS SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH ONTARIO...WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 135 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MVFR CEILINGS TO
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1140 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
091200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1140 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE...WITH HAIL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF M-32 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
WIND DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...EXCLUDING GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON RIP CURRENT SAFETY...PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://RIPCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER MAINLY NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
200 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND LELAND                  45.02N 85.77W
06/08/2011  M43 MPH          LEELANAU           MI   MESONET

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
201 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     HAIL             SUTTONS BAY             44.98N  85.65W
06/08/2011  M0.88 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100466

JSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
202 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NNE LEELANAU STATE PA 45.21N 85.55W
06/08/2011  M42 MPH          LEELANAU           MI   C-MAN STATION

            GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHTHOUSE

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
204 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     HAIL             OLD MISSION             44.97N  85.49W
06/08/2011  M1.00 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100467

BERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
207 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             3 N KEWADIN             44.98N  85.37W
06/08/2011  E1.50 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100469

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
208 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 PM     HAIL             SUTTONS BAY             44.98N  85.65W
06/08/2011  E0.88 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100470

BERGER