Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Gaylord, MI

533 
WWUS34 KAPX 081749
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

MIC009-019-055-079-089-081815-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-110608T1815Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE MI-BENZIE MI-ANTRIM MI-KALKASKA MI-LEELANAU MI-
149 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEELANAU...
NORTHWESTERN KALKASKA...ANTRIM...NORTHEASTERN BENZIE AND NORTHERN
GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 143 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CEDAR...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF LELAND...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ELK RAPIDS...BELLAIRE...MANCELONA...SUTTONS BAY...PESHAWBESTOWN...
  OMENA...MAPLETON...OLD MISSION...KEWADIN...TORCH LAKE...RAPID
  CITY...ALDEN...CLAM RIVER...CENTRAL LAKE...ANTRIM...JORDAN
  TOWNSHIP...WARNER TOWNSHIP AND LAKE BELLAIRE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4473 8612 4477 8608 4492 8604 4500 8615
      4491 8600 4505 8576 4511 8486 4484 8505
      4478 8552 4504 8539 4504 8558 4492 8558
      4499 8546 4478 8555 4477 8560 4488 8554
      4492 8559 4477 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 258DEG 58KT 4488 8565
WIND...HAIL 50MPH 1.00IN

$$


JK

082 
WWUS34 KAPX 081806
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
206 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

MIC019-081815-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-110608T1815Z/
BENZIE MI-
206 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BENZIE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4477 8561 4505 8570 4511 8486 4484 8505
      4478 8552 4504 8539 4504 8558 4492 8558
      4499 8546 4478 8555 4477 8560 4488 8554
      4492 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 259DEG 67KT 4496 8524
WIND...HAIL <50MPH <.50IN

$$

MIC009-055-079-089-081815-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-110608T1815Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE MI-ANTRIM MI-KALKASKA MI-LEELANAU MI-
206 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
LEELANAU...NORTHWESTERN KALKASKA...ANTRIM AND NORTHEASTERN GRAND
TRAVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MAPLETON...OR NEAR ELK RAPIDS...MOVING EAST AT 75 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AT 201 PM A SPOTTER ON OLD MISSION IN GRAND TRAVERSE 
COUNTY REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM.  

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BELLAIRE...MANCELONA...ANTRIM...JORDAN TOWNSHIP AND WARNER
  TOWNSHIP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4477 8561 4505 8570 4511 8486 4484 8505
      4478 8552 4504 8539 4504 8558 4492 8558
      4499 8546 4478 8555 4477 8560 4488 8554
      4492 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 259DEG 67KT 4496 8524
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$


JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1218 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 332 AM/

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS AHEAD FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT
RELIEF IS ON THE WAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...KICKING OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY MUCH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY...ON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN.

JZ

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1205 PM/...TODAY

SOME UPDATED THOUGHTS AT MIDDAY...ONE BAND OF CONVECTION REMAINS
BETWEEN THE M-32 AND M-68 CORRIDORS...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ALREADY DEVELOPING WELL EAST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND HEADING TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO
MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TIMING AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN LOWER. ONE CONCERN WITH APPROACHING LINE OUT OF
WISCONSIN IS EAST-WEST ORIENTED CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG THE M-32 CORRIDOR. EARLIER THOUGHT THAT THIS WOULD
WEAKEN PRIOR TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ARRIVING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOW CONCERNED THAT LINE OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM MAY
INTERACT WITH THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASE THE THREAT FOR
QLCS-TYPE LOW LEVEL SPIN-UPS NORTH OF M-72 CLOSER TO BETTER NEAR
SURFACE INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO SEE LARGE HAIL IN SOME
OF THE BIGGER STORMS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THIS
AFTERNOON.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 332 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ROUNDING OUT THE WORK WEEK REVOLVE AROUND
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY JUST HOW COOL TEMPS
WILL END UP ON THURSDAY AND ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO
FRIDAY. ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FAIRLY
QUICKLY TONIGHT...MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AS IT
PASSES (SEE ABOVE FOR THE DETAILS)...THOUGH OVERALL THUNDER THREAT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY 09Z OR SO. ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT
TO INCOMING RATHER IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT STRAIGHT OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD
SUNRISE AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY.

PER PATTERN RECOGNITION...PUNCH OF VERY CHILLY AIR SLICING IN
BENEATH LINGERING WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THURSDAY...WITH DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL ALSO THERE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE STRAITS DOWN INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE COMPONENT MAY COME INTO PLAY. THIS WILL
WREAK HAVOC WITH HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY...AS QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT
HOW LONG STRATUS WILL STICK AROUND AND/OR LIFT INTO A CU DECK.
SUSPECT NORTHERN AREAS WILL MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
INFLUX OF QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT...THOUGH NORTHERN LOWER MAY END UP
STUCK IN THE MUCH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NAM12 2M TEMPS SHOW HIGHS
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THIS MIGHT BE
ON THE RIGHT TRACK. WILL NUDGE GOING READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...
BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST (AT LEAST NOT YET) AS LATE
DAY SUN SHOULD HELP TACK A FEW DEGREES ONTO INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS.

COOL NIGHT APPEARS IN THE WORKS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
CENTER SETTLING THROUGH ONTARIO AND LIGHT WIND REGIME/DRY AIR IN
PLACE. MET/MAV READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR THE COLD SPOTS LOOK
LIKE A GOOD START PER UPSTREAM OBS WITHIN THIS AIR MASS RIGHT
NOW...WITH MAINLY 40S ELSEWHERE - DEFINITELY A REFRESHING CHANGE
OVER TONIGHT'S MUGGINESS. THEREAFTER...WILL BE FOCUSING ON NEXT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY SLIGHTLY ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...
WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON ITS EASTWARD PLACEMENT ON
FRIDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY...THESE PIECES OF GUIDANCE DEVELOP A RATHER
HEALTHY RAIN SHIELD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP
LAYER WARM ADVECTION ASCENT STRENGTHENS...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE HOLD
PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY. LITTLE
FEELING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...THOUGH SREF MEAN MORE IN LINE WITH
NAM/ECMWF. WILL ADD IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIP CHANCES
(I.E. COULD BE ANOTHER COOLISH DAY IF RAIN ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH).

LAWRENCE

REST OF THE FORECAST...WEEKEND WILL STILL START OUT COOL...AND
PROBABLY WET. MODELS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL TRANSIT THE NORTHERN LAKES SAT NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN LOWER MI ON
SATURDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT SATURDAY...INTRODUCED THUNDER TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ADDED A CHANCE OF SHRA
TO NE LOWER MI SAT NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...500MB RIDGING
WILL POKE UP INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY...AHEAD OF BROAD
TROFFING IN THE WEST. SO DRY WX LOOKS GOOD SUNDAY-MONDAY.

MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON A RATHER CLOUDY SATURDAY...THOUGH IF
THE LOW GETS TUGGED A BIT NORTH...SOUTHERN REACHES COULD MAKE THE
70S. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY IN THE 60S.
TEMPS WILL START TO RECOVER MONDAY...NEAR 70 TO THE LOW 70S.

JZ

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 332 AM/

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING DOWN OF RATHER STRONG FLOW
ALOFT IN QUITE THE WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION AND/OR
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE
WATERS INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROVIDING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH.
COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE MICHIGAN AS RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE MAINTAINS SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH ONTARIO...WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

LAWRENCE

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 718 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG INCOMING AXIS OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST THROUGH MID
MORNING...THOUGH MAY WELL AFFECT TVC/APN WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REDUCED VISBYS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALL SITES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SHOULD LIGHT OFF A RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
LOWER CEILINGS INTO MVFR RANGE (POSSIBLY LOWER) LIKELY MAKING
INROADS INTO ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z AS COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS
RESIDUAL WARMTH ALOFT.

LAWRENCE

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1140 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
091200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1140 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE...WITH HAIL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF M-32 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
WIND DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ON THE
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...EXCLUDING GRAND
TRAVERSE BAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON RIP CURRENT SAFETY...PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://RIPCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER MAINLY NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1143 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     HAIL             EAST JORDAN             45.16N  85.13W
06/08/2011  M1.75 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100459

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HAIL             ELLSWORTH               45.17N  85.24W
06/08/2011  M0.75 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100460

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1156 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 AM     HAIL             ELLSWORTH               45.17N  85.24W
06/08/2011  M1.00 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100461

BERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1157 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     HAIL             BOYNE CITY              45.18N  84.96W
06/08/2011  M0.25 INCH       CHARLEVOIX         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100462

BERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1222 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HAIL             3 W ELLSWORTH           45.17N  85.31W
06/08/2011  M1.25 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100463

BERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S NORTHPORT           45.09N  85.62W
06/08/2011                   LEELANAU           MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF LEE MANN ROAD
            AND M22

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100464

BERGER