Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
249 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER INTO THE MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #795 REMAIN IN EFFECT. UPDATED TO BETTER
REFLECT BREAK IN CONVECTION. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #795 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
UNTIL 01Z/9 PM EDT. DEALING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LINE OF
CONVECTION. SHOULD GET A BIT OF BREAK BETWEEN THIS ROUND OF SEVERE
BEFORE WE GET GOING AHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 10 AM EDT...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY LOOKS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE INITIAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT
MAX AND SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL THERMALS ADVECTION. THE LATEST NAM
SHOWS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER VALUES OF 0 TO -2C
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK PARK. WE HAVE HAD A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. WE HAVE
HAVE RETOOLED THE POP AND WX TRENDS TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

OUR HIRES WRF BASE REF PRODUCT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS AT THIS POINT...AND IT SHOWS A RATHER INTENSE LINE OF
CONVECTION FORMING TOWARDS 20Z...AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA BY
0100Z.

THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 24 KTS
NOW...BUT WE EXPECT THE DEEP SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH A MULTICELL LINE...AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH MLCAPE/SBCAPES GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/G OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALL SHOWS H850-500 LAPSE RATES OF 6.8
C/KM WITH A WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF 10.3 KFT. THERE IS LOW-LEVEL
VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH THE STRONG CYCLONICALLY
CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHING LATER TODAY WE
BELIEVE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WIND...WITH SOME HAIL.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA SEVERE WEATHER INDEX CAME OUT WITH A MAJOR
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL POINT INDEX
FROM PAST COMET RESEARCH.

HERE ARE THE PARAMETERS INPUTTED:
CAPE = 1500 J/KG
MAX SOUNDING WINDS = 65
EHI = 1.0
SRH (0-3 KM) = 150 (M/S)2
STORM SPEED = 30 KTS

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE TRENDS. THE ONE LIMITER
ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF TODAYS CONVECTION WOULD BE THE CLOUD COVER.
THERE BREAKS IN THESE BANDS...AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME
MORE IMPRESSIVE BY THE MID PM...INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILDS IN ON MONDAY....HOWEVER
ALOFT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS RISE ON TUESDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING
ALOFT TOO...DRY BUT COOL WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH SHIFT OFFSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE ENERGY RIDES OVER TOP THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
AND DIGS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HOW ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO GREAT LAKES
REGION AND NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL BE IMPORTANT IN
DETERMINING THE TRACK OF IRENE. HAVE FAVOR GUIDANCE FROM HPC FOR
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT TAF
SITES IS EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 22Z TO 01Z. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH...HOWEVER WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPOU
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA KGFL.
TUE-WED...VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY AM MVFR-IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
THU...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY WITH FAIR AND DRIER WEATHER INTO THE
MID WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THE AREA TO PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
3/4 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS
WHICH HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CONVECTION. TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AS SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE LINES ADVANCING EAST AS THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE UP
TO 1 3/4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON MOST RIVER BASINS...IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF POORLY
DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-221100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 795 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NYZ047-051-058-063-220015-
SCHOHARIE NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-
740 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  SCHOHARIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 735 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF PRATTSVILLE TO 12 MILES WEST OF
PHOENICIA TO 25 MILES WEST OF WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM ROXBURY TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ROXBURY TO 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ROSCOE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GILBOA AND PRATTSVILLE BY 750 PM EDT
LANESVILLE BY 800 PM EDT
WINDHAM...PHOENICIA AND HUNTER BY 805 PM EDT
WOODLAND VALLEY CAMPGROUND BY 810 PM EDT
WEST SHOKAN...KENNETH L WILSON CAMPGROUND AND MOUNT TREMPER BY 815 PM
EDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4209 7452 4215 7454 4215 7451 4217 7446
      4221 7454 4235 7444 4241 7461 4247 7467
      4251 7404 4180 7421 4185 7448 4187 7447
      4200 7476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 269DEG 30KT 4234 7453 4214 7448
          4197 7476

TAW/KGM

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