Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Albany, NY

338 
WWUS51 KALY 211747
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

CTC005-MAC003-NYC021-027-211800-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-110821T1800Z/
LITCHFIELD CT-BERKSHIRE MA-DUTCHESS NY-COLUMBIA NY-
147 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA...NORTHEASTERN DUTCHESS...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRE AND NORTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...

AT 145 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON TO ALGERIE FOUR
CORNERS TO GRANTVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST
OF PITTSFIELD TO 15 MILES WEST OF WESTFIELD TO 8 MILES NORTH OF
TORRINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BURRVILLE...ROBERTSVILLE...NELSONS CORNER AND MOOREVILLE BY 155 PM
  EDT...
  RIVERTON...PLEASANT VALLEY...GOOSE GREEN AND BARKHAMPSTED CENTER BY
  200 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4191 7290 4188 7294 4184 7293 4184 7366
      4213 7342 4228 7327 4237 7315 4240 7309
      4239 7300 4238 7306 4233 7306 4231 7299
      4215 7303 4214 7307 4209 7307 4204 7305
      4204 7300 4197 7302 4197 7288
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 270DEG 25KT 4240 7306 4222 7301
          4195 7316

$$

WASULA

884 
WWUS51 KALY 211802
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

CTC005-MAC003-NYC021-027-211811-
/O.EXP.KALY.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-110821T1800Z/
LITCHFIELD CT-BERKSHIRE MA-DUTCHESS NY-COLUMBIA NY-
202 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
COLUMBIA...NORTHEASTERN DUTCHESS...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE AND NORTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN 
BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4191 7290 4188 7294 4184 7293 4184 7366
      4213 7342 4228 7327 4237 7315 4240 7309
      4239 7300 4238 7306 4233 7306 4231 7299
      4215 7303 4214 7307 4209 7307 4204 7305
      4204 7300 4197 7302 4197 7288
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 270DEG 25KT 4240 7306 4222 7301
          4195 7316

$$

TAW/KGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...AND
CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY WITH FAIR AND
DRIER WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM EDT...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY LOOKS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE INITIAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT
MAX AND SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL THERMALS ADVECTION. THE LATEST NAM
SHOWS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTER VALUES OF 0 TO -2C
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK PARK. WE HAVE HAD A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. WE HAVE
HAVE RETOOLED THE POP AND WX TRENDS TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

OUR HIRES WRF BASE REF PRODUCT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THINGS AT THIS POINT...AND IT SHOWS A RATHER INTENSE LINE OF
CONVECTION FORMING TOWARDS 20Z...AND CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA BY
0100Z.

THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 24 KTS
NOW...BUT WE EXPECT THE DEEP SHEAR TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS BY THE
LATE PM WITH A MULTICELL LINE...AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH MLCAPE/SBCAPES GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/G OVER THE
FCST AREA. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALL SHOWS H850-500 LAPSE RATES OF 6.8
C/KM WITH A WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF 10.3 KFT. THERE IS LOW-LEVEL
VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT WITH THE STRONG CYCLONICALLY
CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHING LATER TODAY WE
BELIEVE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WIND...WITH SOME HAIL.

THE LATEST MAGLENTA SEVERE WEATHER INDEX CAME OUT WITH A MAJOR
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE. THIS IS A CONDITIONAL POINT INDEX
FROM PAST COMET RESEARCH.

HERE ARE THE PARAMETERS INPUTTED:
CAPE = 1500 J/KG
MAX SOUNDING WINDS = 65
EHI = 1.0
SRH (0-3 KM) = 150 (M/S)2
STORM SPEED = 30 KTS

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE TRENDS. THE ONE LIMITER
ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF TODAYS CONVECTION WOULD BE THE CLOUD COVER.
THERE BREAKS IN THESE BANDS...AND THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME
MORE IMPRESSIVE BY THE MID PM...INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...

AS OF 630 AM EDT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE FA AND WERE STARTING TO LOWER AND THICKEN WITH STILL A FEW
BREAKS IN THE OVC ACRS FAR SE PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS AT 6 AM WERE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NW PTNS OF FA. HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO
FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO ADJUST SOME GRIDS TO
BETTER FIT CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY...SHOULD BE ARRIVING ACRS NW THIRD OF FA
BTWN 12Z AND 13Z AND CENTRAL THIRD OF FA BTWN 13Z AND 15Z. FAR SE
PTN OF FA MAY END UP REMAINING DRY TIL LATE THIS MRNG.

FOR TODAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING REACHING THE HUDSON
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. ML MUCAPES REACH 1000-2500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON... H7-H5 LAPSE RATE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE 5.5 TO 6.5
C/KM...0-3 KM HELICITY 100-300 M2/S2 WITH HIGHEST VALUES ON GFS
AND NAM TOWARDS 00Z ACROSS THE SE TWO THIRDS OF THE FA...AND
CYCLONICALLY CURVED H5 JET OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS MOVING INTO FA
INDICATE THAT THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION...HOWEVER HEATING AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SLIGHT RISK
POTENTIAL IN HWO AND HAVE PLACED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE GRIDS
STARTING AROUND 14Z MENTIONING HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

GIVEN HELICITY AND BUFKIT HODOGRAPHS THERE ALSO IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIGHT TURNING SUPERCELL STORMS PROVIDED ENOUGH
INSTABILITY OCCURS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL WITH WBZ HEIGHTS
GENERALLY 9-12 KFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER
CHECKLIST POINTS TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO CHANCE SVR AT
KGFL...KPOU AND KALB WITH POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ROTATION IN CELLS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIRES COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY ALSO
INDICATES THAT THERE MAYBE SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS ACROSS CWA STARTING LATE THIS
MORNING AND NOT ENDING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE FA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
ENHANCED WORDING THROUGH MID EVENING AND THEN JUST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
TRAINING CELLS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER UPPER
TROUGH WITH SEVERAL VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT AND GOOD COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. THERE ALSO MAYBE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS H8 TEMPS COOL TO +6 TO +8 C BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
NORTHEAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S WITH
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WED...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER...AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS MAXES REACH AROUND OR JUST OVER 80 IN
VALLEYS...AND MID 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...MODELS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS...MAINLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVE HOURS...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAXES REACHING 80-85 IN
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MINS MAINLY IN
THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS.

FRI-SAT...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE COULD STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK/EVOLUTION OF IRENE. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE FAIR CONDITIONS FRI/FRI NT...THEN SOME CLOUDS
AND SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SAT. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR...OR PERHAPS A BIT
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY 75-80 IN
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN
THE 50S FOR VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECEDED
AND ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE QUITE STRONG. THE FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL BANDS/LINES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY LINGER THROUGH 04Z-06Z/MON...ESP AT
KPOU.

SOME OF THE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND HAIL...ALONG WITH BRIEFLY VERY HEAVY RAIN
WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS.

ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY DEVELOP ONCE THE RAIN ENDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE AT KGFL...AND KPOU.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS ADDITIONAL FOG/LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME MAINLY S/SW BY
MID MORNING...AT 5-10 KT...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SW/W BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NW SUN NIGHT...AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND NEAR ANY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC -SHRA KGFL NORTH.
TUE-WED...EARLY AM IFR FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH NO SIG WX.
THU...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS MORNING AND CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT
TODAY...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND DROP TO 35 TO 65
PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH TODAY EXCEPT HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH ON
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR US TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WHICH HAVE
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CONVECTION. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
IS POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LINES ADVANCING EAST AS THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT ON MOST RIVER BASINS...IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED LOW
LYING AREAS AS WELL AS RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON CREEKS AND
STREAMS.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...IAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1050 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-221100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1050 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...TO THE HUDSON VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE
EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR IN SEVERAL LINES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF POORLY
DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
MEASURED RAINFALL REPORTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE AS WELL AS ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING OR NEAR BANKFULL RIVERS OR STREAMS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT FORM ON THE
INTERNET OR BY TELEPHONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1144 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NYZ041-048>050-084-211630-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
1144 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1140 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROTTERDAM JUNCTION...OR ABOUT OVER SCOTIA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BURNT HILLS BY 1150 AM EDT
BALLSTON SPA...ROUND LAKE AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROCK CITY FALLS BY
NOON EDT
MILTON BY 1205 PM EDT
SARATOGA SPRINGS BY 1215 PM EDT
6 MILES WEST OF GREENWICH BY 1230 PM EDT

RAINFALL RATES MAY APPROACH A HALF AN INCH AN HOUR FROM THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4307 7339 4279 7400 4289 7410 4290 7409
      4296 7410 4327 7359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 234DEG 25KT 4291 7397

TAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1147 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NYZ058-063-064-211630-
WESTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-
1147 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  GREENE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1145 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WEST SHOKAN...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GRAHAMSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
OLIVEBRIDGE BY 1155 AM EDT
MOUNT TREMPER BY NOON EDT
KENNETH L WILSON CAMPGROUND BY 1205 PM EDT
WOODSTOCK AND WEST HURLEY BY 1210 PM EDT
SAUGERTIES BY 1225 PM EDT

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4197 7447 4224 7404 4217 7404 4216 7400
      4217 7400 4212 7391 4209 7393 4207 7392
      4206 7394 4201 7394 4182 7434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1547Z 234DEG 25KT 4195 7431

TAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1214 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NYZ048>051-211700-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-
SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
1214 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ROTTERDAM JUNCTION...OR ABOUT OVER SCOTIA...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
GLENVILLE AND SCOTIA BY 1220 PM EDT
EAST GLENVILLE AND ALPLAUS BY 1225 PM EDT
BURNT HILLS BY 1230 PM EDT
ROUND LAKE BY 1245 PM EDT

RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH A HALF AN INCH AN HOUR.

LAT...LON 4284 7420 4290 7409 4296 7409 4306 7395
      4291 7377 4274 7408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 230DEG 22KT 4287 7405

TAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1217 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NYZ048-049-051-052-211645-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-
EASTERN ALBANY NY-
1217 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BERNE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTTERDAM...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ALTAMONT INCLUDING THE FAIR GROUNDS BY 1225 PM EDT
VOORHEESVILLE BY 1230 PM EDT
GUILDERLAND AND ROTTERDAM BY 1240 PM EDT
COLONIE...SCHENECTADY...6 MILES SOUTH OF NISKAYUNA AND 7 MILES WEST
OF LOUDONVILLE BY 1245 PM EDT

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH A HALF AN INCH AN HOUR.

LAT...LON 4266 7417 4272 7416 4286 7390 4278 7382
      4279 7376 4282 7373 4278 7369 4278 7368
      4269 7371 4267 7373 4252 7412 4261 7420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 237DEG 21KT 4265 7408

TAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1224 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NYZ060-061-063>066-211700-
WESTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
1224 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  ULSTER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  DUTCHESS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE KATRINE...OR ABOUT OVER RHINEBECK...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RED HOOK AND SAUGERTIES BY 1230 PM EDT
CLERMONT BY 1245 PM EDT
LIVINGSTON BY 1255 PM EDT
ANCRAM BY 100 PM EDT

RAINFALL RATES MAY APPROACH A HALF AN INCH IN AN HOUR.

LAT...LON 4224 7368 4205 7352 4181 7399 4201 7413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 237DEG 21KT 4199 7392

TAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

NYZ051>054-059-060-211715-
WESTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN GREENE NY-
WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
1235 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN

  ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  GREENE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 1231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR RAVENA...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF DELMAR...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RAVENA AND NEW BALTIMORE BY 1240 PM EDT
SELKIRK BY 1245 PM EDT
CASTLETON-ON-HUDSON BY 1250 PM EDT
EAST GREENBUSH AND NASSAU BY 100 PM EDT
WEST SAND LAKE BY 110 PM EDT
AVERILL PARK BY 115 PM EDT

RAINFALL RATES MAY APPROACH A HALF AN INCH IN AN HOUR.

LAT...LON 4275 7360 4256 7343 4235 7390 4250 7404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 236DEG 24KT 4248 7386

TAW