Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Albany, NY

092 
WWUS51 KALY 042214
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
614 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

NYC001-083-091-093-115-042245-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-110904T2245Z/
WASHINGTON NY-SCHENECTADY NY-ALBANY NY-RENSSELAER NY-SARATOGA NY-
614 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SARATOGA...NORTHERN RENSSELAER...NORTHEASTERN
ALBANY...EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SCHENECTADY AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 605 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER 
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST HEBRON TO BARKERS GROVE
TO MOHAWK VIEW...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SALEM TO 8 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF MECHANICVILLE TO LATHAM...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TOMHANNOCK...SPEIGLETOWN...SOUTH CAMBRIDGE AND SHUSHAN BY 620 PM
  EDT...
  TAMARACK...HAYNERSVILLE...EAST PITTSTOWN AND EAST BUSKIRK BY 625 PM
  EDT...
  WEST HOOSICK AND RAYMERTOWN BY 630 PM EDT...

THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND 
DAMAGE IN SARATOGA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV OR
ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.ALBANY.GOV.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4307 7328 4279 7337 4272 7390 4302 7380
      4325 7360 4329 7327
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 258DEG 30KT 4324 7330 4299 7348
          4280 7370

$$

FRUGIS/JPV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE WITH US THROUGH EARLY LABOR DAY. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PRESS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
TONIGHT...AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS FRONT
WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LABOR DAY INTO EARLY WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 530 PM...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WORKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT HAVE BEEN PULSING UP AND DOWN. THEN...A SUPER
CELL FORMED AND A TORNADO WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR EXTREME EASTERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY WEST OF THE TORNADO WARNING. MORE CELLS ARE MOVING INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY FROM DELAWARE COUNTY.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 800 PM...WITH MORE LINES LIKELY
TO FORM UPSTREAM AND MERGING WITH THE OLD ONES.

*********PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST************

AS OF 430 PM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 845 HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND NORTHWARD UNTIL
1100 PM. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALREADY HAD ONE CONFIRMED REPORT OF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN HERKIMER COUNTY.

MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATS WERE AROUND 6.5C/KM AND
SBCAPES UP TO 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS OUR AREA.

THIS DESPITE LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FLOATING AROUND FROM PREVIOUS
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. THE WIND ALOFT HAVE INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALLOWING ANY CONVECTION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND INCREASED
UPDRAFTS.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. OUR
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST. PWAT VALUES HAD ACTUALLY DROPPED TO 1.5 INCHES
THIS MORNING BUT WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE WERE INCREASING
TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. FORTUNATELY...THE STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ABOUT 30 MPH. HOWEVER...CELLS LOOK TO BE
TRAINING...SO IT IS BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM DIFFERENT THUNDERSTORMS
COULD COULD FALL OVER THE SAME AREA.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING (NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT) IS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS...NOT THAT OUR SOUTHERN AREAS ARE
COMPLETELY RISK FREE. ANY THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT TIME AND AT THE VERY LEAST RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL
WAS WELL NORTH OF THE NY/CAN BORDER. THE STORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING OUR
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AS
WE LOOSE THE BEST HEATING OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IF ANYTHING...LIKELY INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH BEGINS
TO MAKE ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY 65-70
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...60-65 FURTHER NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THE START OF LABOR DAY...THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MOVING RIGHT
THROUGH THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND ONLY SLOWLY SLIDE TO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES DAY/S END. THIS FRONT WILL LINE UP WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH USUALLY RESULTS IN THE MOST EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GENERAL RAINFALL FOR LABOR
DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD.

HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RAIN
SHIELD AND ANY OF THESE COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH THE THREAT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

MORE ABOUT THE RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL HYDRO PROBLEMS WILL BE
DISCUSSED IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.

WITH CLOUDS...RAIN AND COOLER AIR BLEEDING FROM THE
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN MONDAY...STAYING MAINLY IN THE
60S NORTH OF ALBANY...70S FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL NOT HAVE CLEARED OUR
REGION...PROBABLY STALLED SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF ALBANY. WAVES OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG OCCASIONAL RAIN. THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY BUT WILL STILL MENTIONED
THEM...AND THEY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF TUNNEL. MOST MODELS (EXCEPT THE CMC)
NOW INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH TO OUR EAST TO
ALLOW DRIER CANADIAN TO START TAKING HOLD SOMETIME ON TUESDAY. THE
DAY COULD START OFF WITH LEFTOVER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLIER
IN THE WEEK WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...EXCLUDING THE CMC...MOST OTHER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT...WHILE TRYING TO MOVE NORTH...MIGHT BE SHUNTED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM REACHING MOST
IF NOT ALL OF OUR REGION. THE 12Z GFS NOW HAS LATCHED ONTO THE
EARLIER ECMWF SOLUTION THAT THE FRONT AND MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS
OF LEE WOULD NEVER REACH OUR ZONE. THAT SAID...THE EURO DOES BRING
SOME LIGHT QPF JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY WED INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP LOOKS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL MODEL (CMC) CONTINUES TO PAINT A
GLOOMIER PICTURE STILL BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF LEE NORTHWARD WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW...IT WILL BE DISMISSED SINCE IT APPEARS TO
BE AN OUTLIER.

WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS WED/FRI ...JUST IN
CASE SOME MOISTURE DOES MOVE UP BUT AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE LIGHT.

MORE GOOD NEWS. AT THIS VANTAGE POINT...HURRICANE KATIA...STILL WELL
OUT IN THE ATLANTIC LOOKS TO BE NEVER DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR
REGION...AT LEAST BY BASED ON ALL OPERATIONAL LONG RANGE MODELS.
HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO COMPLETELY DISMISS THE THREAT...THIS
FAR OUT.

FOR NOW...WENT DRY BOTH WEEKEND DAYS. IF THAT WORKS OUT...IT WOULD
BE THE FIRST THAT HAPPENED IN NEARLY A MONTH.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND NIGHTS DIPPING DOWN TO THE
CHILLY 40S WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION....50S CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECASTS ON THE TROPICS FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM...AS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS THE
HUDSON VALLEY...IFR STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKE UP IN MOST PLACES.
HAVE LINGERED OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU/KGFL...AND
OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AT KALB UNTIL ABOUT 19Z TO 20Z. AFTER
THAT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN SO
HAVE FORECAST VCSH AND CB AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.

LATER ON THIS EVENING VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR AGAIN AS FOG
BEGINS TO FORM...THEN STEADY PCPN IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (18Z
MONDAY). CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR IN RAIN/STRATUS BEGINNING AROUND
05Z AT KGFL...07Z AT KALB...AND 11Z AT KPOU.

OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...MVFR/IFR...SHRA LIKELY WITH CHC TSRA.
TUE-WED...MAINLY VFR...CHC -SHRA KALB AND KPOU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL LIKELY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

WE DECIDED NOT TO ASSIGN THE WET FLAG TO OUR STATIONS JUST YET...AS
THE BULK OF THE RAIN MIGHT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

ELEVATED RH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...REACHING 90-100
PERCENT AT NIGHT...70-90 PERCENT MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUE MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND SOUTHERN VT. WE ALSO ADDED THE REMAINDER OF THE MOHAWK
COUNTY AS WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL EXPAND FURTHER S/E MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AS THE FRONT
INTERACTS WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND TSTMS COULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RAINFALL RATES POTENTIALLY
REACHING UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORM CELLS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION MON AND MON
NIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS FROM
SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE AM.

AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ABOUT AN
INCH WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...2-3 INCHES FURTHER NORTH. THESE VALUES
LOOK TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON RIVERS FROM THE
MOHAWK RIVER NORTH BUT AS ALONG AS RAINFALL DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
EXCEED OUR THINKING RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER
BACK TO THE LATER VERSIONS OF OUR HYDRO SECTION OUR CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
328 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ060-061-065-066-051100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
328 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KINGSTON IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ047>054-058-059-063-064-051100-
SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
328 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 835 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS...AND
THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTIRCT...SOUTH TO KINGSTON IN ULSTER COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REPORT ANY
HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NYZ032-033-041>043-082>084-VTZ013>015-051100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
328 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 835 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS WELL AS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REPORT ANY
HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR RAINFALL GREATER THAN TWO INCHES TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NYZ038>040-051100-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
328 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 835 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOHAWK VALLEY OF EASTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REPORT ANY
HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR RAINFALL GREATER THAN TWO INCHES TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             1 W STRATFORD           43.18N 74.70W
09/04/2011  E1.00 INCH       HERKIMER           NY   PUBLIC

&&

ELH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

NYZ032-033-038>040-082-042200-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-
MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...
DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD
416 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ARE BECOMING NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...AS
WELL AS URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL OCCUR. IN ADDITION...CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE A HAZARD. IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...SEEK COVER INDOORS.

JPV/FRUGIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
448 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

NYZ047-042130-
SCHOHARIE NY-
448 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO

  SCHOHARIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...
WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
COBLESKILL TO 11 MILES WEST OF COBLESKILL TO MARYLAND...AND MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
RICHMONDVILLE AND COBLESKILL BY 515 PM EDT
SUMMIT BY 525 PM EDT
CENTRAL BRIDGE BY 530 PM EDT

RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH COULD FALL IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME WITH THIS STORM...LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

IN ADDITION...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES
NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4262 7464 4272 7467 4280 7455 4277 7446
      4278 7429 4279 7427 4279 7425 4276 7427
      4275 7431 4273 7429 4254 7449 4250 7470
      4253 7471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 258DEG 17KT 4276 7451 4266 7464
          4257 7479 4258 7487

FRUGIS/JPV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALISBURY               41.98N 73.42W
09/04/2011                   LITCHFIELD         CT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE LIMB DOWN ON WIRES ACROSS FROM 412 DAIRY HILL RD.

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALISBURY               41.98N 73.42W
09/04/2011                   LITCHFIELD         CT   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON BURRELL RD 1/8 MI S OF JCT MILITARY RD

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRFIELD               43.14N 74.91W
09/04/2011                   HERKIMER           NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 POLES DOWN IN FIELD NR JCT HARDSCRABBLE RD AND
            PARKHURST RD

&&

ELH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
502 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALISBURY               41.98N 73.42W
09/04/2011                   HERKIMER         NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE LIMB DOWN ON WIRES ACROSS FROM 412 DAIRY HILL RD.

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALISBURY               41.98N 73.42W
09/04/2011                   HERKIMER         NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON BURRELL RD 1/8 MI S OF JCT MILITARY RD

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIRFIELD               43.14N 74.91W
09/04/2011                   HERKIMER         NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 POLES DOWN IN FIELD NR JCT HARDSCRABBLE RD AND
            PARKHURST RD

&&

ELH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
533 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

NYZ048>052-042200-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-
EASTERN ALBANY NY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
533 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN

  SCHENECTADY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  ALBANY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...

AT 528 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...
WINDS AROUND 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROTTERDAM JUNCTION TO
ALTAMONT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCOTIA
TO 8 MILES WEST OF ROTTERDAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SCOTIA BY 540 PM EDT
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...EAST GLENVILLE AND ALPLAUS BY 545 PM EDT
NISKAYUNA BY 550 PM EDT
COLONIE AND CLIFTON PARK BY 555 PM EDT

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH COULD FALL IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME WITH THIS STORM...LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

IN ADDITION...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS
STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER
ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LAT...LON 4291 7371 4273 7376 4268 7417 4289 7406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 262DEG 26KT 4292 7398 4276 7407

FRUGIS/JPV