Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

174 
WWAK47 PAJK 260335
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
735 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

AKZ018-261300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-111026T1300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
735 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKDT
WEDNESDAY. 

* SNOW AMOUNT: 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR WHITE PASS TUESDAY NIGHT.

* WIND: SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* VISIBILITY: REDUCED IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKDT WED OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

328 
WWAK47 PAJK 261245
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
445 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

AKZ018-261345-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-111026T1300Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
445 AM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKDT EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR WHITE PASS...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKDT EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR WHITE PASS. 

STEADY SNOW HAS CHANGED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR WHITE PASS
THIS MORNING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

BECKER

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
632 AM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

.SHORT TERM...A 966MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GULF WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A FAR REACHING FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT IS ALREADY
CAUSING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET IS ORIENTED ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS THE FRONT COMES ONSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT STRONG WIND HEADLINES ARE OUT FOR THE WHOLE
REGION WITH GUSTS OF 40-50MPH EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING SITKA...CRAIG...AND
KETCHIKAN ZONES...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SAME TIME FRAME AND GUSTS OF UP TO 60MPH POSSIBLE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CAUSE STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND
GALES INSIDE.

RAINFALL WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES STARTING IN YAKUTAT FIRST AND
MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONT. HIGH WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN PRONE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE TO ABOUT 32-34F NEAR WHITE PASS AS THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FALLS NORTH SKAGWAY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AS A RESULT 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR AREAS ABOVE 2400FT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING
SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITY ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY FROM THIS
MORNING...REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S.

USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND NAM TO UPDATE THIS PACKAGE. MAIN
ISSUES WERE INCREASING WINDS WELL ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE GULF.

 &&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED RANGE
PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE CURRENT FRONT EXITING THE PANHANDLE TO THE
EAST AND THE LOW AND SECOND WRAP ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF. IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THE ELFIN COVE ZONE AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
SITKA ZONE WILL BE WEATHERING THE BRUNT OF THE WIND WED AFTERNOON
INTO WED EVENING. STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WINDS
GUST UP NEAR 40 MPH IN THESE LOCATIONS FROM THE SW. FARTHER
INLAND, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT IN THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS AT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
JUMPS INLAND. THE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND IT COMBINED WITH THE
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE YUKON WILL CREATE STRONG SOUTHERLIES THAT
COULD PROMPT MORE STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR SKAGWAY AND GALES IN
LYNN CANAL. NOT TO MENTION THE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

RAIN WILL HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO SHOWER MODE BY WED AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE BELOW
PASS LEVEL ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, BUT WITH LOWER QPFS THINKING
THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR WHITE PASS
WED.

FARTHER OUT, THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE
OUT THE SYSTEM FOR THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BETTER CONSENSUS IS
BEING REACHED ON THE TRACK BUT TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE STILL A
BIT OFF. CURRENTLY THE MODELS ARE GOING FOR A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN CENTRAL HAIDA GWAII AND CAPE DECISION. AS FOR INTENSITY
NAM AND EC ARE IN THE SAME BALLPARK WITH 966 MB LOW CENTERS BY 12Z
FRI. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS ABOUT 10 MB WEAKER AND ABOUT 8
HOURS FASTER THEN THE OTHER TWO. WENT WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH FOR TRACK USING THE EC WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN
PRINCE OF WALES WITH THE SLOWER TIMING AND DEEPER LOW OF THE NAM
AND EC.

FARTHER OUT, ANOTHER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE INTO THE GULF
AND PANHANDLE FOR THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A MIX OF CURRENT EC AND
HPC FORECAST FOR EXTENDED PERIOD AND NAM/EC FOR MID RANGE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MID RANGE
AND DROPS TO AVERAGE PAST THURS.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ019>021-024>026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AKZ023-027.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ022.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AKDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-021-022-033-035-036-041-042-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-031-032-034.

&&

HANNON/EAL