Storm Warning 56, NWS Juneau, AK

303 
FZAK52 PAJK 250537 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
940 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-251400-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N INTO THE FAR NW GULF BY TUE
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SE ALASKA TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ041-251400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
940 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. W SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING
TO SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-251400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
940 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. W SWELL.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING
TO W 35 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-251400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING
TO SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-251400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 55 KT DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING
TO SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-251400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
200 PM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011

.SHORT TERM...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM S OF THE AKPEN WILL
MOVE TO THE FAR NW GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF
THE 12Z UKMET AND GFS MAINLY FOR THE WAY THEY HANDLE THE FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

 MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRENGTH OF
850 MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN COAST BY 00Z WED. FURTHER NW
THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT MAKES IT A BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
60+ MPH WINDS...BUT STRONG WIND HEADLINES ARE LIKELY NEEDED FOR
PAEL AND PAYA AREAS AS GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE A GOOD BET.
ALSO...STRONG SLY WINDS UP LYNN CANAL SHOULD GET INTO PAGY AREA
SO WILL LIKELY NEED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR THEM STARTING
AROUND MIDDAY TUE. OTHER AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO STRONG WIND
LEVELS BY 00Z WED. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE STRONGEST WIND EVENTS
IN SOME TIME FOR THIS AREA...MAINLY JUST AFTER THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

 OTHER ISSUES OF CONCERN WILL BE HOW QUICKLY PRECIP ARRIVES WITH
FRONT...AND HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WELL OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST GREATER THAN THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGH
MUCH OF TUE...SO WITH ANY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOWERS WOULD BE ABLE TO
FORM. THAT WILL BE PARTIALLY NEGATED BY SOME RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE TOP OF THE MAIN PART OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT. BUT ON
TUE AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL INCREASING LIFT WILL LIKELY INCREASE
SHOWERS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR SIMPLICITY OF
TERMINOLOGY TUE WILL STICK WITH STRATIFORM WORDING AS THE MAIN
PRECIP AREA WITH THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF TUE
MORNING...THEN SPREAD TO MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY HEAVY AROUND THE PAYA AREA
BY 18Z TUE...THEN BY 21-00Z ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE AROUND THE 2500 TO 3000 FOOT LEVEL FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. WHITE PASS SHOULD GET A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH LATE
TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE STORM CENTER MOVING
TO SITKINAK ISLAND BY 12Z TUE THEN CENTER MOVING TO CAPE SUCKLING
12Z WED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY NICE FORMATION 250 NM S OF
PADU STARTING TO CURVE TRACK TOWARD KODIAK ISL AS OF 24/22Z. BEST
MODELS DAY 2 TO 3 WAS 24/12Z UKMET AND AK-GFS-40 AND USED.

ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CAUSE STORM FORCE WIND BUT DILEMMA WAS TO
INCLUDE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR LAND AREAS GREATER THAN 60 MPH. GUT
FEELING WAS BORDERLINE BUT 24/12Z AK-GFS-40 850 MB WIND INSISTS
THAT STRONG GUSTS WOULD REMAIN OVER THE OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH
26/00Z THEN BRUSH ZONE 23 BEFORE MOVING OVER 27 & 28. WE THOUGHT
ABOUT THIS LONG AND HARD BEFORE SHIFTING THE WATCH TO SOUTHERN
BARANOF THEN INTO THE USUAL WINDY SPOTS IN THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN
WITH THIS ONE INDICATED IN THE QPF. USED COMBO GFS AND HPC FOR THE
DAY 4 THROUGH 7. CONFIDENCE HIGH DAYS 2 & 3 AND MODERATE BEYOND.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON - LATE TUE NIGHT OR
AKZ023 AND 027-028.
STRONG WIND TUE AKZ022. AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING PKZ043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING PKZ012-022-033-036-041-042-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ011-013-021-031-032-034-035.
&&

RWT/JC