Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Juneau, AK

864 
WWAK47 PAJK 200052
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

AKZ025-200615-
/X.UPG.PAJK.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110120T0600Z/
/X.EXB.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T0900Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
352 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW AMOUNTS: SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR AND
  VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. TOTAL
  SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO
  TURN TO RAIN OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ022-200600-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T0600Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
352 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING.

* SNOW AMOUNT: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES BEFORE CHANGING TO
  RAIN BY LATE THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR
  ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ020-021-200615-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T0900Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH
352 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT.

* SNOW AMOUNT: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES BEFORE CHANGING TO
  RAIN OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE
  EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ019-200615-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
352 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY. 

* SNOW AMOUNT: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT.
  SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 MILE
  ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL START OUT DRY AND
  ACCUMULATE QUICKLY BUT...AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE TONIGHT...THE
  SNOW WILL BECOME WET WITH HIGH WATER CONTENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ024-200600-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0006.110120T0052Z-110120T0600Z/
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ANGOON
352 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING.

* SNOW AMOUNT: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE SNOW CHANGES
  TO RAIN BY LATE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-200615-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0006.110120T0052Z-110120T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
352 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY.

* SNOW AMOUNT: 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE
  TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

587 
WWAK47 PAJK 200541
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
841 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

AKZ022-200645-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T0600Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN
841 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING. 

SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE THIS
EVENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ024-200645-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110120T0600Z/
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ANGOON
841 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW IS BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN THIS EVENING AND PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ020-021-025-200900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T0900Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...JUNEAU
841 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT. 

* SNOW AMOUNTS: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED
  BEFORE IT MIXES WITH RAIN AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES
  OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ019-201400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
841 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY. 

* SNOW AMOUNT: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE
  SNOW DIMINISHES LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-201400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110120T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
841 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY. 

* SNOW AMOUNT: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE
  SNOW DIMINISHES LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

908 
WWAK47 PAJK 200847
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1147 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

AKZ020-021-025-201000-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T0900Z/
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUSTAVUS...HOONAH...JUNEAU
1147 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ019-201400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
1147 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY. 

* SNOW AMOUNT: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED 
  BEFORE SNOW DIMINISHES LATE TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
DRIVING WILL BECOME DIFFICULT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-201400-
/X.CON.PAJK.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110120T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1147 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
THURSDAY. 

* SNOW AMOUNT: TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED 
  BEFORE SNOW DIMINISHES LATE TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADVISORY MEANS THAT A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS EVENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 5 AM AKST THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

727 
WWAK47 PAJK 201350
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
450 AM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

AKZ019-201500-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110120T1400Z/
HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HAINES
450 AM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-201500-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-110120T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
450 AM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

.SHORT TERM...THE 14Z SATELLITE SHOWS A STRENGTHENING GALE FORCE
LOW MOVING NORTHWARD TO KODIAK ISLAND WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS GALE FORCE FRONT
AND THE ASSOCIATED WINDS AND PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS THERE REMAINS A 1039 MB
SURFACE HIGH IN THE YUKON HELPING TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
BRING COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND. ALL THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE TO WEAK ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE HIGH THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT
DETERMINING THE EXACT TIME WHEN THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
FROM PELICAN EASTWARD TO JUNEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHER NORTH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH NORTHWARD IN LYNN CANAL. DID ISSUE A
WWY ADVY FOR HAINES FOR 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND
COULD SEE HIGH AMOUNTS IF THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS SITUATION BEARS
WATCHING THROUGH THE DAY. USED THE 00Z GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS AGAIN IT INITIALIZED THE GALE FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE CENTRAL GULF THE BEST THIS MORNING AND THE GFS ALSO HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING WHEN THE SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THE 00Z/06Z NAM CONTINUES
TO BE TOO SLOW INITIALIZING THE SPEED OF THE GALE FORCE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE BEING SLOWER THAN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND ALL OTHER MODELS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AGAIN HAS
PROBLEMS WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SOUTHERN
YUKON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD GIVEN THE COLD SURFACE HIGH IN THE YUKON IS POORLY
INITIALIZED THIS MORNING.

 FOR TODAY WILL PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE GALE FORCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES TOWARD THE OUTER COAST. ATTM...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO FALL
IN THE FORM OF SNOW FROM SUMNER STRAIT NORTHWARD FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WON'T INCREASE UNTIL THIS
EVENING AND SO EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE ONLY AS HIGH AS 1 TO
2 INCHES TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WILL HAVE LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AS THE BARRIER FLOW ENHANCES
THE 850 MB 50 KNOT WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS ALONG THE OUTER COAST. DO KEEP
WINDS BELOW ADVY...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO MONITOR SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TRENDS ONCE THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLOSER TO
THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING.

 THE WEATHER THEN BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED TONIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BRINGING LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
FURTHER NORTH THE SOUTHEASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL DECREASE THE
PRECIP AMOUNTS BY ENTRAINING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
FROM POINT RETREAT SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
WITH THE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
SEE MOST OF THE SNOW CHANGE TO RAIN. BUT IN WIND SHELTERED
LOCATIONS AND FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW...LIKE HOONAH AND THE
MENDENHALL VALLEY COULD SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
THIS EVENING WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING
WILL BE NEAR HAINES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN ROADWAYS. AS THE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVERNIGHT WILL SEE
ISENTROPIC GLIDE INCREASE OVER THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY PRODUCING THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM HAINES NORTHWARD. ATTM...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND TOO QUICKLY TO GIVE HAINES WARNING LEVEL
SNOWFALL BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS VERY WELL COULD SEE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 850 MB SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE
AND THIS WILL BRING LOCALLY WINDY SOUTHERLY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE INNER CHANNELS WITH NEAR ADVY LEVEL GUSTS IN KETCHIKAN. THE
MOST TROUBLING POINT OF THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THAT
THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE YUKON IS POORLY HANDLED BY ALL THE MODELS
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE COLDER SURFACE AIR REMAINING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LONGER THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND EVEN AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN.
HOPEFULLY THE 12Z/18Z MODELS WILL INITIALIZE THE COLD AIR IN THE
YUKON BETTER THAN 00Z/06Z MODELS HAVE. THIS WEATHER SITUATION
BEARS WATCHING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...OVERNIGHT WARMING TREND AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SNOW LEVEL NOW SOLIDLY WELL ABOVE SEA LEVEL DURING
THE DAY WITH OVERNIGHT EXCURSIONS DOWN TO SEA LEVEL LIMITED TO
HIANES...SKAGWAY...AND YAKUTAT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. QPF VALUES OF OVER ONE HALF AN
INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
LOW AND MID LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A RAIN
EVENT FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS EXCEPT
HAINES AND SKAGWAY...WHICH MAY SEE UP TO 3 INCHES ACCUMULATION.
HYDER...ON THE OTHER HAND...COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 9 TO 10 INCHES
BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY PRECIP WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY FOR SOME LOCATIONS AND POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
AM ALSO EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY GALES OVER THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WITH THE USUAL EASTERLY OUTFLOW RESPONSE
FROM THE INNER CHANNELS.

YET ANOTHER FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BRING MORE HEAVY PRECIP.
SOME CONFLICTING MODEL GUIDANCE ON SNOW LEVELS ASSOCIATE WITH THIS
FRONT...SO THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER OR NOT SNOW WILL MAKE
IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. STAY TUNED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AKST
     THURSDAY FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036.

&&

PSS/FRITSCH