Gale Warning 58, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
216 PM AKST TUE JAN 18 2011

.SHORT TERM...A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE YUKON. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO
SOUTHEAST GULF TILTS SOUTHEAST AND IS EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. A 990 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF
WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE PANHANDLE AND HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. COASTAL AREAS
REMAIN MAINLY RAIN WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN. MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL WILL
TREND TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS WEAK CAA SPREADS
SOUTH BUT STILL DON'T SEE MORE THAN A FEW INCHES NEW SNOW.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL WILL BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
COASTAL WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AREAS EXCEPT FOR FAR
NORTH. RAIN SPREADS TO COASTAL WATERS WED AFTERNOON.

 WINDS HAVE GONE BACK TO NORTH IN THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GAIN SMCR STRENGTH TONIGHT IN CROSS SOUND AND
LYNN CANAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER NIGHT. WILL SEE WEST
WINDS IN EASTERN GULF VEER TO THE SE WED MORNING AND EXPECTED TO
REACH GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL COOL QUICKLY THIS EVENING
WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND PROBABLY DROP INTO THE TEEN FAR
NORTH TO LOWER 20S NORTH CENTRAL. WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO SEE PATCHY FOG FORM. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL COOL SLOWLY
OVERNIGHT AND END UP NEAR FREEZING BY MORNING. IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP LOWS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

 NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS THIS MORNING. OPTED TO USED
THE 12Z GFS FOR GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TWO FRONTS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST DOMAIN. THE GFS HAS SHOWN BEST CONSISTENCY AND WAS USED
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MODEL PERFORMANCES BECOME POOR AND DIFFICULT TO DRAW A
REASONABLE CONSENSUS. WENT WITH THE HPC ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALMOST FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PULSES SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY.

 THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BUT NOT
TO BE IN ITS FULL STAGE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY WELL ORGANIZED AND THE SNOW LINE
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTH OF A LINE
FROM ELFIN COVE TO JUNEAU. WITH CONTINUED WARMING AND A SERIES OF
FRONTS...THE FORECAST WILL STAY ON WET SIDE WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOSTLY RAIN. FRONTAL WINDS WILL GENERATE GALE
FORCE ACROSS THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIODS. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-032>034-041>043-051.

&&

MM/AHN