Winter Storm Warning 25, NWS Juneau, AK

203 
WWAK47 PAJK 302042
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1142 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

AKZ017-310300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0025.000000T0000Z-111231T0900Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1142 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT. 

* SNOW...9 TO 13 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES
  COULD REACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE 
  TONIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED 
  TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

POWDERY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE QUICKLY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 PM AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

533 
WWAK47 PAJK 310232
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
532 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

AKZ017-310900-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0025.000000T0000Z-111231T0900Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
532 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT. 

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW
  ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2
  INCHES PER HOUR DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE 
  TONIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED 
  TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

POWDERY SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE QUICKLY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

582 
WWAK47 PAJK 310832
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1132 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011


AKZ017-310945-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WS.W.0025.000000T0000Z-111231T0900Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1132 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
403 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2011

.SHORT TERM... CURRENT SATELLITE HAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS THIS
EVENING. THE  DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE OUTER COAST FROM ICY BAY TO NORTHERN BARANOF ISLAND AND
INLAND FROM THE HOONAH AREA NORTH TO HAINES TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII TONIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FROM PETERSBURG ON SOUTH
AND INHIBIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ONLY BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
LESS, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONSHORE ABOVE
850 MB. RAIN MIXING IN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DIXON ENTRANCE JUST
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS YAKUTAT LATE
TONIGHT AND OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MOVE ONSHORE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE AND TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER AROUND 10 TO 15 FEET WITH THE
LOWEST SEAS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AREA. IN THE INNER CHANNELS, WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY 20 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND
CROSS SOUND THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SPLIT FLOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY NORTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND. TYPICALLY DIURNAL WIND PATTERN NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
WITH WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. FROM FREDERICK SOUND ON SOUTH, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF THE HIGH IN CANADA AND THE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII.

A MIX OF THE 00Z AND 12Z EC WERE USED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.
ONLY THE HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS WERE ABLE TO PICK UP THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF THE BEST. THE TRACK AND ARRIVAL
TIMES ARE SLIGHTLY QUESTIONABLE AND WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
YAKUTAT TO PELICAN AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
FREQUENT AS THEY MOVE INLAND TOWARDS THE COAST MOUNTAINS EXPECT
FOR HAINES AREA. THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT OVER PETERSBURG AND
WRANGELL AREA WITH POSSIBLE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WE WILL HAVE A SEVERAL DAYS OF A SIMILAR SEQUENCE:
A LAND FALLING LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS WITH THE NET
RESULT OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO
SEA LEVEL IN A N TO S SEQUENCE. THE OVERALL THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE DESCRIBES A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII TONIGHT.  WE WILL
THIS THE NAME "SYSTEM ONE".

SYSTEM 2: THE NEXT POLAR FRONT ZONE WAVE WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
GULF WHILE DEEPENING TO ABOUT 970 MB WITH A CENTER REACHING A
POINT ABOUT 240 NM S OF PADQ 12Z SUN. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL SEND
A LARGE AND STRONG OCFNT ONSHORE, AND WILL BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE
PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY N OF FREDERICK SOUND.

MORE ON SYSTEM 2: THE NEWEST RUNS (29.12) OF THE GFS AND EC CAME
IN WITH LARGE CHANGES FOR THIS SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF AND HAVE A
CONSENSUS THAT HAS BEEN LACKING. THE FORECASTS FOR THE PERIOD OF
00Z SUN TO 00Z TUE REFLECTS THIS CONSENSUS: A TRIPLE POINT LOW
MOVING NE INTO THE GULF TO 55/143 FOR 12Z SUN WITH A CENTER OF A
987 MB. THE GFS AND EC ARE TRENDING TO AN AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A
FEATURE (THE GFS HAS AN INVERTED TROUGH BAG WITH A THICKNESS
FEATURE LIKE THE TRIPLE PT LOW IN EC).

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-041>043-051-052.

&&

NCB/ABJ JBT