Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2011

Gale Warning 550, NWS Juneau, AK

December 30, 2011

NWS Juneau, AK issued this gale warning at Dec 30, 2011, 4:00 AM AKST. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 30, 2011, 4:00 AM AKST (13:00 UTC)
Expired
Dec 30, 2011, 4:00 PM AKST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

783 
FZAK52 PAJK 301231
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-310100-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL BC COAST FRI MORNING. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE FRI
NIGHT. OUTLOOK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE N INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. 

$$

PKZ041-310100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-310100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 
13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN
WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-310100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 
13 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-310100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE MORNING. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW WITH
RAIN. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-310100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... 

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$
3 follow-up statements
202 
FZAK52 PAJK 301544 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
644 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-310100-
644 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL BC COAST FRI MORNING. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE FRI
NIGHT. OUTLOOK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE N INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. 

$$

PKZ041-310100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
644 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-310100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
644 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN
WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-310100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
644 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... 

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-310100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
644 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
MORNING. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW WITH
RAIN. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-310100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
644 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... 

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$
409 
FZAK52 PAJK 301848 AAB
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
947 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-311300-
947 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL BC COAST FRI MORNING. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE FRI
NIGHT. OUTLOOK. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE N INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. 

$$

PKZ041-311300-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
947 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-311300-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
947 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN
WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-311300-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
947 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW...RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-311300-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
947 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW WITH
RAIN. 
.MON...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-311300-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
947 AM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 



$$
617 
FZAK52 PAJK 310026
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-311400-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE FRI
NIGHT AND DRIFT INTO CANADA BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE N INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SAT
NIGHT AND SUN. 

$$

PKZ041-311400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS...WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-311400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS...WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-311400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS...WINDS
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE EVENING.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-311400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS...WINDS
DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-311400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 30 2011 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.

.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 29, 4:03 PM AKST, 11 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 29, 4:03 PM AKST, 11 hours 57 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
403 PM AKST THU DEC 29 2011

.SHORT TERM... CURRENT SATELLITE HAS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IN THE NORTHEAST GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS THIS
EVENING. THE  DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE OUTER COAST FROM ICY BAY TO NORTHERN BARANOF ISLAND AND
INLAND FROM THE HOONAH AREA NORTH TO HAINES TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII TONIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL BRING LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW FROM PETERSBURG ON SOUTH
AND INHIBIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO ONLY BE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
LESS, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONSHORE ABOVE
850 MB. RAIN MIXING IN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DIXON ENTRANCE JUST
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS YAKUTAT LATE
TONIGHT AND OVER THE PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS MORE UNSTABLE
AIR MOVE ONSHORE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE AND TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. SEAS WILL LINGER AROUND 10 TO 15 FEET WITH THE
LOWEST SEAS NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AREA. IN THE INNER CHANNELS, WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY 20 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND
CROSS SOUND THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SPLIT FLOW LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINLY NORTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND. TYPICALLY DIURNAL WIND PATTERN NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
WITH WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. FROM FREDERICK SOUND ON SOUTH, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF THE HIGH IN CANADA AND THE LOW
OVER HAIDA GWAII.

A MIX OF THE 00Z AND 12Z EC WERE USED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.
ONLY THE HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS WERE ABLE TO PICK UP THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF THE BEST. THE TRACK AND ARRIVAL
TIMES ARE SLIGHTLY QUESTIONABLE AND WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
YAKUTAT TO PELICAN AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
FREQUENT AS THEY MOVE INLAND TOWARDS THE COAST MOUNTAINS EXPECT
FOR HAINES AREA. THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT OVER PETERSBURG AND
WRANGELL AREA WITH POSSIBLE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WE WILL HAVE A SEVERAL DAYS OF A SIMILAR SEQUENCE:
A LAND FALLING LOW IS FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AIRMASS WITH THE NET
RESULT OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO
SEA LEVEL IN A N TO S SEQUENCE. THE OVERALL THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS AVERAGE.

THE SHORT RANGE SECTION ABOVE DESCRIBES A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII TONIGHT.  WE WILL
THIS THE NAME "SYSTEM ONE".

SYSTEM 2: THE NEXT POLAR FRONT ZONE WAVE WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
GULF WHILE DEEPENING TO ABOUT 970 MB WITH A CENTER REACHING A
POINT ABOUT 240 NM S OF PADQ 12Z SUN. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL SEND
A LARGE AND STRONG OCFNT ONSHORE, AND WILL BE A SNOW EVENT FOR THE
PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY N OF FREDERICK SOUND.

MORE ON SYSTEM 2: THE NEWEST RUNS (29.12) OF THE GFS AND EC CAME
IN WITH LARGE CHANGES FOR THIS SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF AND HAVE A
CONSENSUS THAT HAS BEEN LACKING. THE FORECASTS FOR THE PERIOD OF
00Z SUN TO 00Z TUE REFLECTS THIS CONSENSUS: A TRIPLE POINT LOW
MOVING NE INTO THE GULF TO 55/143 FOR 12Z SUN WITH A CENTER OF A
987 MB. THE GFS AND EC ARE TRENDING TO AN AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A
FEATURE (THE GFS HAS AN INVERTED TROUGH BAG WITH A THICKNESS
FEATURE LIKE THE TRIPLE PT LOW IN EC).

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-041>043-051-052.

&&

NCB/ABJ JBT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 29, 4:00 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK
Dec 29, 5:20 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK
Dec 29, 9:00 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK7 hr
Dec 30, 4:45 AM AKSTWinter Storm WarningAJK19 hr
Dec 30, 12:16 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK44 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.