Winter Storm Warning 19, NWS Juneau, AK

835 
WWAK47 PAJK 171004
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
104 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

AKZ029-171800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0019.000000T0000Z-111217T1800Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
104 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATION...NEAR HYDER.

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
  STORM TOTAL WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 18 INCHES BY SATURDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...SNOW INTENSITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKDT SAT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

930 
WWAK47 PAJK 171357
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
457 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

AKZ029-171800-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0019.000000T0000Z-111217T1800Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
457 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING. 

* LOCATION...NEAR HYDER.

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING. 
  THE STORM TOTAL WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 18 INCHES BY SATURDAY 
  MORNING. 

* TIMING...SNOW INTENSITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DRIVING WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WARNING MEANS THAT A WINTER STORM IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THIS STORM COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 AM AKDT SAT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ018-019-171800-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WS.A.0007.111218T1800Z-111219T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
457 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
  ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY.


* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE

* TIMING...HEAVIER SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING MID MORNING SUNDAY AND
  REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
  OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH BLOWING SNOW
  POSSIBLE ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. WET HEAVY SNOW WILL BE
  DIFFICULT TO MANAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WINTER STORM CONDITIONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AKST SATURDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

221 
WWAK47 PAJK 171622
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
722 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

AKZ029-171730-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0019.000000T0000Z-111217T1800Z/
MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HYDER
722 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

SNOW HAS ENDED OVER THE AREA. SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT
OCCURRED NEAR HYDER.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ018-019-180100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WS.A.0007.111218T1800Z-111219T1400Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
722 AM AKST SAT DEC 17 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

* LOCATION...ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
  ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. 

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE

* TIMING...HEAVIER SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING MID MORNING SUNDAY 
  AND REMAIN HEAVY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF 
  OVERNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH BLOWING SNOW 
  POSSIBLE ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. WET HEAVY SNOW WILL BE 
  DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WINTER STORM CONDITIONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 400 PM AKST SATURDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

RWT

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
139 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...A 993 MB LOW NEAR ICY BAY WILL MOVE N AND INLAND
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A FRONT IS STALLED S OF THE AREA AND WILL
HAVE A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVE NE ALONG IT. THE FIRST
ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN HAIDA GWAII THIS EVENING...THEN A SECOND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SRN HAIDA GWAII
BETWEEN 12-15Z SAT...THEN COME ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL BC COAST
AROUND 18Z SAT. A COUPLE OF WEAK TROFS WILL MOVE NE INTO THE NRN
GULF TONIGHT AND SAT. USED THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE
N...AND MAINLY PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE S. THE PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE AT BOTH THE NW THIRD AND FAR SE AREAS TONIGHT AND
SAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE AREA...WITH A
MINIMAL PRECIP THREAT IN BETWEEN. WILL HAVE SHOWERY PRECIP OVER
THE NW AND STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER THE FAR SE AREA. PTYPE SHOULD
BE MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE FAR NRN AREA AND
AROUND HYDER. MOST SNOWFALL WILL BE AROUND HYDER...WITH AROUND
3 INCHES THERE THRU SAT MORNING...AND NEAR PAYA...WHERE UP TO
3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS EVENING THRU SAT. THERE WILL
BE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH A TROF MOVING THRU THE PAYA AREA
FROM AROUND 08-12Z TONIGHT.

 AS FOR WINDS...RIGHT NOW STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR THE ICY BAY LOW AND OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS. WINDS OVER
THE NE GULF SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES INLAND. IT WILL
TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS AS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME LEE TROFFING OVER THE
SRN YUKON AND ENHANCE THE SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THIS FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WLY ALOFT LATE
TONIGHT AND SAT...WEAKENING THE LEE TROF AND DIMINISHING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT GENERALLY SCA LEVEL WINDS TO START IN
BOTH THE NE GULF AND MOST OF THE NRN INNER CHANNELS...WITH A
SMALL AREA OF GALES EARLY THIS EVENING JUST SE OF THE ICY BAY
LOW. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS ALL AREAS BY 09Z TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH SO SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS THRU SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AS A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. IT IS
THE DETAILS THAT ARE STILL IN DEBATE PARTICULARLY AFTER MONDAY.

THE FIRST MAJOR SYSTEM FOR THE PANHANDLE SHOWS UP FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A MODERATE STRENGTH FRONT COMES ACROSS THE GULF.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS DECENT FOR THIS FIRST SYSTEM, BUT STILL VARIES
IN SOME AREAS. THE 12Z GFS AND UK I THINK TAKE THE PARENT LOW TOO
FAR WEST INTO SW ALASKA BY SUN NIGHT. THE 0Z EC WAS TOO FAR EAST
TAKING THE LOW EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE MORE RESENT RUNS HAVE
STARTED TO REACH A CONSENSUS OF GOING UP THE STRAIT BETWEEN KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AS FOR THE FRONT, SOME TIMING
ISSUES STILL REMAIN BUT ARE SOMEWHAT MINOR. WITH THIS SYSTEM THE
PANHANDLE CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS INLAND AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH SUN NIGHT. IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE WIND WARNING CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME,
BUT SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET COMING ASHORE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US SOME WARNING
CRITERIA GUSTS IF THE STRENGTH OF IT HOLDS UP TO SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUNS. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE, MAINLY LOOKING AT RAIN AS 1000 TO 850
THICKNESSES WILL BE A BIT TOO HIGH FOR ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS.

FARTHER OUT, MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS TO SUFFER IN THE DETAILS AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BECOMES RATHER POOR. THERE ARE SOME CASES
OF ONE MODEL PUTTING A TROUGH WHERE ANOTHER IS SHOWING A WEAK
RIDGE. DECIDED THAT AFTER MON STUCK WITH THE HPC DATA THAT USED
MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT ATTEMPTED TO AVERAGE OUT THE
DIFFERENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE OUT TO MON THEN
FALLS TO BELOW AVERAGE AFTER THAT POINT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-043-052-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

RWT/EAL