Gale Warning 507, NWS Juneau, AK

501 
FZAK51 PAJK 170617
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-180030-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A 993 MB LOW NEAR ICY BAY WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. A
WEAK LOW WILL MOVE NE TO NEAR HAIDA GWAII BY EARLY SAT
MORNING...THEN INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN BC COAST BY SAT
AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE E TO THE
EASTERN GULF BY SUN EVENING. 

$$

PKZ011-180030-
GLACIER BAY-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN...SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-180030-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-180030-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-180030-
ICY STRAIT-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-180030-
CROSS SOUND-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT. W SWELL.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. W
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. RAIN.
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-180030-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING
TO 2 FT LATE. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-180030-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 3 FT IN
THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-180030-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES...SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-180030-
FREDERICK SOUND-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT
SUBSIDING. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-180030-
SUMNER STRAIT-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS...EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. 
.SUN...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-180030-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
917 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
NW 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 6 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
139 PM AKST FRI DEC 16 2011

.SHORT TERM...A 993 MB LOW NEAR ICY BAY WILL MOVE N AND INLAND
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A FRONT IS STALLED S OF THE AREA AND WILL
HAVE A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVE NE ALONG IT. THE FIRST
ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN HAIDA GWAII THIS EVENING...THEN A SECOND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE NE ACROSS SRN HAIDA GWAII
BETWEEN 12-15Z SAT...THEN COME ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL BC COAST
AROUND 18Z SAT. A COUPLE OF WEAK TROFS WILL MOVE NE INTO THE NRN
GULF TONIGHT AND SAT. USED THE 12Z ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE
N...AND MAINLY PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE S. THE PRECIP WILL
GENERALLY BE AT BOTH THE NW THIRD AND FAR SE AREAS TONIGHT AND
SAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING PAST THE AREA...WITH A
MINIMAL PRECIP THREAT IN BETWEEN. WILL HAVE SHOWERY PRECIP OVER
THE NW AND STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER THE FAR SE AREA. PTYPE SHOULD
BE MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE FAR NRN AREA AND
AROUND HYDER. MOST SNOWFALL WILL BE AROUND HYDER...WITH AROUND
3 INCHES THERE THRU SAT MORNING...AND NEAR PAYA...WHERE UP TO
3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS EVENING THRU SAT. THERE WILL
BE A BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH A TROF MOVING THRU THE PAYA AREA
FROM AROUND 08-12Z TONIGHT.

 AS FOR WINDS...RIGHT NOW STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR THE ICY BAY LOW AND OVER THE NRN INNER CHANNELS. WINDS OVER
THE NE GULF SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES INLAND. IT WILL
TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE NRN INNER
CHANNELS AS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SOME LEE TROFFING OVER THE
SRN YUKON AND ENHANCE THE SLY PRESSURE GRADIENT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER THIS FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WLY ALOFT LATE
TONIGHT AND SAT...WEAKENING THE LEE TROF AND DIMINISHING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT GENERALLY SCA LEVEL WINDS TO START IN
BOTH THE NE GULF AND MOST OF THE NRN INNER CHANNELS...WITH A
SMALL AREA OF GALES EARLY THIS EVENING JUST SE OF THE ICY BAY
LOW. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS ALL AREAS BY 09Z TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THOUGH SO SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS THRU SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES AS A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. IT IS
THE DETAILS THAT ARE STILL IN DEBATE PARTICULARLY AFTER MONDAY.

THE FIRST MAJOR SYSTEM FOR THE PANHANDLE SHOWS UP FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A MODERATE STRENGTH FRONT COMES ACROSS THE GULF.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS DECENT FOR THIS FIRST SYSTEM, BUT STILL VARIES
IN SOME AREAS. THE 12Z GFS AND UK I THINK TAKE THE PARENT LOW TOO
FAR WEST INTO SW ALASKA BY SUN NIGHT. THE 0Z EC WAS TOO FAR EAST
TAKING THE LOW EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE MORE RESENT RUNS HAVE
STARTED TO REACH A CONSENSUS OF GOING UP THE STRAIT BETWEEN KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AS FOR THE FRONT, SOME TIMING
ISSUES STILL REMAIN BUT ARE SOMEWHAT MINOR. WITH THIS SYSTEM THE
PANHANDLE CAN EXPECT STRONG WINDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS INLAND AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH SUN NIGHT. IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE WIND WARNING CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME,
BUT SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING A 70 KT LOW LEVEL JET COMING ASHORE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT THAT COULD GIVE US SOME WARNING
CRITERIA GUSTS IF THE STRENGTH OF IT HOLDS UP TO SUCCESSIVE MODEL
RUNS. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE, MAINLY LOOKING AT RAIN AS 1000 TO 850
THICKNESSES WILL BE A BIT TOO HIGH FOR ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS.

FARTHER OUT, MODEL AGREEMENT STARTS TO SUFFER IN THE DETAILS AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BECOMES RATHER POOR. THERE ARE SOME CASES
OF ONE MODEL PUTTING A TROUGH WHERE ANOTHER IS SHOWING A WEAK
RIDGE. DECIDED THAT AFTER MON STUCK WITH THE HPC DATA THAT USED
MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT ATTEMPTED TO AVERAGE OUT THE
DIFFERENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE OUT TO MON THEN
FALLS TO BELOW AVERAGE AFTER THAT POINT.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-043-052-053.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-042.

&&

RWT/EAL