Wind Advisory 35, NWS Juneau, AK

406 
WWAK77 PAJK 141830
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1030 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

AKZ018-019-150000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-110316T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
1030 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKDT TUESDAY. 

* WIND: NORTH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

AKZ025-150000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0035.110315T0900Z-110315T2100Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
1030 AM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM AKDT
TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM AKDT TUESDAY.

* WIND: EAST GUSTS TO 40 MPH NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

$$

991 
WWAK77 PAJK 142212
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
212 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

AKZ018-019-142315-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-110316T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SKAGWAY...HAINES
212 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ025-142315-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0035.110315T0900Z-110315T2100Z/
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JUNEAU
212 PM AKDT MON MAR 14 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
404 PM AKDT SUN MAR 13 2011

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWING REMNANTS OF LOW IN
THE CENTRAL GULF WITH DEVELOPING LOW IN THE N PACIFIC TRACKING N
TOWARD THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. PRECIP DIMINISHED THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH FIRST PASSING FRONT. RAIN SNOW LINE JUST SOUTH OF
SUMNER STRAIT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN REGIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN THE EVENING. RAIN SNOW
LINE WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARDS FREDERICK SOUND AS WARMER AIR TRACKS
IN. 850 TEMPS NEAR 0C OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY.
FRONT SHOULD SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES NORTH TONIGHT SO HAVE SNOW
AMOUNTS OF ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATIONS
POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH AN OVER RUNNING EVENT. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE A SECOND LOW MOVES IN FOR
TUE WITH PRECIP INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON ALONG WITH LOW TRACKING IN WILL KEEP
STRONGER NORTHERN PRESSURE GRADIENT. KEEPING WIND ADVY FOR
SKAGWAY AND HAINES. STRONG GUSTS DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
INTERIOR PASSES WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ADVY. GALE FORCE WINDS
FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON.

 GFS AND EC INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE NAM ALREADY AN OUTLIER. GFS
SHOWED LOWER POPS BY MON COMPARED TO THE EC. UPDATED GRIDS WITH A
BLEND OF GFS AND EC WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS TO KEEP OUTFLOW WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. LOWERED TEMPS FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY A BIT AS
FELT MODELS WERE INCREASING THEM A BIT TO QUICKLY WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...TREND IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST IS FOR UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
BERING STRAIT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THURSDAY
MORNING...A PROGRESSIVE AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER LOW COMING OUT
OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSK WILL PUMP UP A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM. THIS RIDGE WILL CONNECT WITH THE BERING STRAIT HIGH
AND BEGIN SHIFTING TO THE EAST...EFFECTIVELY DISPLACING THE VERY
LONG LIVED UPPER LOW IN THE GULF.

AT THE SURFACE...A 979 MB LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY
ON IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD AND GENERALLY TRACK NNW INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF BY MID WEEK. WEEK AND POORLY ORGANIZED MID LEVEL
ENERGY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FRONT THAT DOES NOT HOLD HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT TRACKS NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE. LIKELY POPS
LIMITED TO WEST OF SISTERS LIGHT AND SOUTH OF JUNEAU BETWEEN
MONDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS THE LOW MAKES A CLOSE APPROACH TO THE PANHANDLE WILL PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHWEST OUTER COAST.

FAIRLY GOOD SHOT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT AND AM EXPECTING A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND REACHING THE FAR NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS BY WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
STILL HAVE SOME SNOW IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST...BUT NOT A
LOT OF ACCUMULATION AND IT WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN TEMPS FALL DOWN CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING.

USED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF HPC FOR THE
EXTENDED RANGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT MONDAY FOR AKZ018-019.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>036-041>043-051.

&&

PRB/FRITSCH